Trading News

10-04-2023 09:04:55

Yen Falls as Interest Rate Forecasts Vary; NZ Dollar Falls

The yen fell against key rivals on Monday after data from the United States supported the argument for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes, underlining a widening gap with Japan, where the central bank continues to keep the benchmark yield around zero. Likewise, the risk-sensitive New Zealand and Australian currencies fell as US-China tensions over Taiwan escalated, with Beijing serving as a crucial trading partner for the Antipodean states.

The yen fell against key rivals on Monday after data from the United States supported the argument for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes, underlining a widening gap with Japan, where the central bank continues to keep the benchmark yield around zero.

Likewise, the risk-sensitive New Zealand and Australian currencies fell as US-China tensions over Taiwan escalated, with Beijing serving as a crucial trading partner for the Antipodean states. The yen fell 0.3% versus the US dollar to 132.47, continuing a similar-sized drop from Friday when statistics indicated that the US economy added jobs at a rapid rate in March.

In truncated trading on Friday for the Easter break, ten-year Treasury rates touched 3.413%. The yield stayed high at 3.3776% in Tokyo on Monday when many Asian and European markets would be closed. The yen fell 0.5% against the euro to 144.49. It decreased by 0.3% vs sterling to 164.54.

According to Mizuho analysts Masafumi Yamamoto and Masayoshi Mihara in a client letter, the dollar rose against the yen due to the ongoing solid development in the US labor market despite inflation and fast interest rate hikes. "Yields in areas like the eurozone, the United Kingdom, and Australia will follow U.S. rates upward, so the yield difference will not grow much," they said.

Nevertheless, the employment growth was lower than the previous month, and the increase in average hourly pay was lower than experts predicted, which Mizuho analysts said was inconsistent with a prolonged rise in US rates. They said that barring an upward surprise in US consumer pricing data on Wednesday, the dollar has limited potential to increase versus the yen from present levels.

Kazuo Ueda, the next Governor of the Bank of Japan, takes over from Haruhiko Kuroda on Monday and is largely anticipated to maintain significant stimulus for the time being. He will deliver his inaugural address at 7:30 p.m. JST (1030 GMT).

Likewise, the New Zealand dollar fell 0.6% to $0.6238, while the Australian dollar fell 0.21% to $0.6660. Both nations' stock and bond markets are closed for the Easter Monday holiday.

In offshore trade, the dollar rose 0.12% to 6.8830 yuan. On the day Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen returned from a brief visit to the United States, China launched three days of military maneuvers simulating precise attacks against Taiwan.

09-04-2023 09:04:26

Weekly Forex Forecast (April 10-14, 2023)

The DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCAD are all included in today's weekly currency prediction. The US Dollar Index (DXY) bounced off macro support last week and is trying a bullish recapture, while EURUSD and GBPUSD appear to be headed for a fall.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, we have USDJPY and USDCAD, which look more optimistic and try their reclaims. To prepare for the next week, watch the video then scroll down to see the charts.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Forecast:

This week, the dollar index recovered from the 101.00 macro support level I highlighted. Bulls, on the other hand, still have work to do. The first stumbling block is 102.05, which functioned as support in late March and drew sellers on Friday.

A sustained break over 102.05 allows access to the 102.60 monthly open, with a break above that allowing access to the 103.50 yearly open. So there's still a lot of work to be done, but I'm cautiously optimistic about the DXY as long as it remains above the 101.00 macro support level.

EURUSD Forecast

On Friday, I discussed EURUSD, observing how a higher time frame closure below 1.0900 would confirm last week's bearish fakeout. Having said that, I'm usually wary of Friday price activity, especially when it's also a holiday.

I started a tiny short position around 1.0936 last week and shared it with members of the Discord trading club. Nonetheless, I'm holding out for a daily close below 1.0900 before increasing the size of the position.

A daily close below 1.0900 reveals the 1.0750 support confluence, while a daily finish above 1.0930 negates the bearish perspective and reveals 1.0973.

GBPUSD Forecast

Last week, GBPUSD confirmed a bearish fakeout above the 1.2450 range highs. Technically, this is a range of 1.2427 to 1.2450, and Friday closed below both. Even Thursday's session failed to hold over 1.2450, which is one reason I believe the dollar will rise in the coming days.

If GBPUSD bears follow through this week, we might see a move to 1.2290 and possibly the 1.2200 mid-range. A daily closing over 1.2450, on the other hand, would neutralize the negative picture.

USDJPY Forecast

Last week, I told Daily Price Action subscribers that I preferred the long side of the USDJPY while it was trading around 130.93. The rising channel from earlier this year and the importance of 130.70 were to blame.

Since late March, the USDJPY market activity has resembled that of January and early February. But, USDJPY bulls have work to do this week around 132.90. We saw the pair stumble there earlier this month, so a daily close above is required to open up levels like 134.40.

As the USDJPY is above 130.70, I'm cautiously positive, but a daily regain of 132.90 would make me more aggressively bullish.

USDCAD Forecast

I mentioned the USDCAD October trend line a few times in February, stressing that a bullish break from the level would disclose higher levels. The breakout occurred on February 22nd, resulting in a 300-pip surge in USDCAD.

We saw a rounded retest of the October trend line at 1.3420 last week. While USDCAD was trading at 1.3420, I recommended this as a viable long in the member's Discord group, which turned out to be a good move.

The monthly opening of 1.3516 will determine if we see more gains. A sustained break above offers up levels such as 1.3650, while a rotation down this week is expected to find support at 1.3470.

04-04-2023 04:04:35

The GBP has Reached its Highest Level Since June, While the Euro is Rising as the Dollar Falls

The pound soared to a fresh 10-month high versus the dollar on Tuesday, while the euro rose to its highest level in two months, as market speculations on the conclusion of the US rate-hiking cycle weighed on the greenback.

Sterling touched $1.2475, its highest level since June 2022, and was last trading slightly below it, up 0.4%. The euro hit $1.0938, the highest level since early February, and was last up 0.17% at $1.0921.

"We've been suggesting that FX hasn't caught what's been occurring in rates, and there's still headroom for the dollar to drop a little further," said Derek Halfpenny, MUFG's head of global markets research. "Short-term spreads between core Europe and the United States have been more constant, with euro-dollar trading at $1.10 to $1.15." 

Government bond rates in the United States and Europe fell substantially this month as investors sought safe-haven assets amid concerns about the banking sector, and while they have recovered slightly, they remain considerably below recent highs.

The German two-year yield has fallen 70 basis points from its March highs and was recently at 2.687%, but the swings in the United States have been much more dramatic.

The two-year yield in the United States was recently at 3.9978%, down a full percentage point from its early March highs, as traders reassessed expectations that the Federal Reserve would continue to raise interest rates.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released data on Monday that showed manufacturing activity fell to its lowest level in nearly three years in March as new orders continued to fall, with all sub-components of its manufacturing PMI falling below the 50-point mark for the first time since 2009.

Traders believe the European Central Bank will continue to raise interest rates. There were other technical elements at work, notably for the pound, indicating that it may see additional increases.

"1.2448 has been a significant technical chart resistance level. This year has seen two highs "said Joe Tuckey, Argentex's head of FX research. "Breaking through this suggests it is an entry point for new sterling buyers, as well as a short covering zone for sterling shorts."

In another sign that the end of global rate hikes is near, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its cash rate unchanged at 3.6%, breaking a run of ten consecutive hikes, as policymakers said more time was needed to "assess the impact of the increase in interest rates to date and the economic outlook."

The Australian dollar was last trading at $0.67465 down 0.6%. "(The RBA) appears comfortable that inflation has peaked and has chosen not to pull the trigger on rate hikes ahead of the quarterly inflation report in a few weeks," said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index.

"Unless the RBA is given with an unexpected increase in quarterly inflation, I believe the RBA will be content to sit at 3.6% for the next two to three months."

The dollar increased to 132.84 yen versus the Japanese yen, but the US dollar index, which monitors the currency against a basket of currencies, fell 0.1% to 101.92.

03-04-2023 10:04:40

Dollar Rises as Fears Resurface Following the OPEC+ Surprise

The US dollar began the week stronger as inflation worries returned following a surprise announcement by major oil producers to cut production even more, with traders betting the Federal Reserve would need to raise interest rates at its next meeting.

The declaration from OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, comes as statistics on Friday revealed that consumer spending in the United States climbed mildly in February after spiking the previous month, with inflation showing some indications of dropping even as it remained strong.

"While receding broader contagion risks, positive developments in China, and expectations that the Fed is nearing the end of the tightening cycle should keep sentiments broadly supported," said Christopher Wong, a currency strategist at OCBC in Singapore. "However, the recent oil price gain due to the surprise production cut is a new risk to inflation." "New inflation concerns mean that the inflation struggle is far from done."

The euro EUR=EBS fell 0.25% to $1.0812, a one-week low, while the Japanese yen JPY=EBS fell 0.04% to 132.86 per dollar. Sterling GBP=D3 was down 0.22% on the day at $1.2305, having hit a one-week low of $1.22825 earlier in the session.

The dollar index =USD, which compares the US dollar to six other currencies, was recently at 102.77, hoping to break over 103 for the first time in a week. The OPEC+ reduction resulted in an immediate 6% spike in oil prices on Monday.

The cutbacks were announced ahead of a virtual meeting of the OPEC+ ministerial panel, which includes Saudi Arabia and Russia, and were anticipated to maintain the existing cuts of 2 million barrels per day (bpd) until the end of 2023.

Instead, oil producers announced additional output cutbacks of roughly 1.16 million bpd on Sunday.

The two-year US2YT=RR U.S. Treasury yield, which moves in lockstep with interest rate forecasts, was up 2.7 basis points to 4.089%. The 10-year Treasury note yields US10YT=RR rose 2.1 basis points to 3.511%.

The chance of the Fed raising rates by a quarter point in May has risen to 61% from 48% on Friday. But, by the end of the year, decreases of 40 basis points are expected. FED WATCH

The risky Australian dollar AUD=D3 dropped 0.21% to $0.667. The New Zealand dollar NZD=D3 declined 0.54% to $0.622. Bitcoin BTC= recently declined 1.04% to $28,097.00 in cryptocurrencies. Last night, Ethereum ETH=, ETH=BTSP declined 1.55% to $1,789.48.

02-04-2023 12:04:54

Weekly Forex Forecast (April 3-7, 2023)

The DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and AUDUSD are all included in today's weekly currency prediction. On Friday, the dollar index earned a potentially substantial recovery, while currency pairings such as EURUSD and GBPUSD struggled.

In today's currency prediction, I go through all of this and more. To prepare for the next week, watch the video then scroll down to see the charts.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Forecast

The DXY concluded the week down, but with a possible bullish recovery of 102.50 on Friday. For the time being, it's a possible recapture, as the first 24 hours of the new week will either confirm or negate Friday's surge.

If the dollar index continues to rise early this week, the 103.50 yearly open is next. A daily close below 102.35, particularly 101.90, would be bearish approaching the 101.30 regions.

EURUSD Forecast

The EURUSD had an exciting week, rising to retest the 1.0930 resistance level before falling significantly on Friday. Friday's session finished below the crucial level of 1.0850, as did Thursday's start.

If Monday closes below Friday's low of 1.0837, the bearish engulfing pattern is confirmed, and important support at 1.0750 is opened up. This is also close to the October rising channel support I mentioned before.

For the time being, last week's EURUSD closing appears bearish, but the first 24 hours of the new week will be critical in confirming or negating Friday's candle.

GBPUSD Forecast

Last week, GBPUSD got near the 1.2445 range highs, but not quite. The pound, like the EURUSD, concluded Friday with a bearish candle. It closed below the 4-hour trend line from the 16th after breaking the minor pivot at 1.2345.

Yet, like with the DXY and EURUSD, I'm curious to watch how the GBPUSD reacts in the first 24 hours of the new week. If the 1.2345 level holds as fresh resistance, we might see a move to 1.2288 and potentially the 1.2200 mid-range. A daily close above 1.2345, on the other hand, would seek the 1.2450 range highs.

USDJPY Forecast

On Friday, I wrote on USDJPY, suggesting that bulls needed a daily close above 132.90 to extend the run to 134.40. On Friday, they got close, but not quite. Thus, for the time being, the USDJPY is stuck between 132.65 and 132.90.

There isn't much we can do until we have a daily close above 132.90 or a sustained breach below the 130.70 support confluence. Yet, given the rising channel below, I'm more interested in confirming the bullish situation.

AUDUSD Forecast

Last week, I discussed the AUDUSD, noting that 0.6720 was resistance. Friday, indeed, retested the level and sold down into the close. The more tempting AUDUSD trade, on the other hand, will occur with a higher time frame closure below channel support near 0.6670.

Levels like 0.6580 and 0.6525 would become available as a result. A daily close over 0.6720, on the other hand, would expose 0.6780.

01-04-2023 10:04:04

Weekly Forex Analysis

The weekly forex forecast includes predictions for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, and USD/JPY. Our weekly forex prediction includes technical analysis, price activity on major currency pairs, assets employing high-timeframe analysis, and market environment.

Welcome to this week's Weekly Forex Forecast video, in which we use a basic but effective top-down technique to determine market behavior and direction via price movement.

The secret to long-term success in trading forex, gold, silver, and stocks are an essential trading technique with powerful money management rules and simple trading rules mixed with the proper trading attitude, and psychology. Trading regulations and risk management After we've learned to read price movement and market behavior, psychology becomes our most substantial trading advantage.

In this video, we explored some outstanding trade ideas for the following currency market - main forex pairs ( EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, USDJPY ). We can see a probable larger move ahead by applying the top-down technique and high time-frame analysis.

We used a basic but effective top-down strategy to determine market behavior and direction in our forex prediction video. The secret to long-term success in forex trading is an essential trading technique with robust money management rules and simple trading rules mixed with the proper trading attitude, and psychology. After we learned to recognize price movement and market behavior, our biggest trading advantage is risk management rules and a good trading mindset.

Our top-down methodology, research on Forex Majors, and weekly forex forecast are performed on a variety of time frames, including Weekly, Daily, and 4 Hourly charts. Every weekend, we publish a weekly currency prediction video. Get up to speed with new trading perspective videos by subscribing, liking, and commenting.

31-03-2023 07:03:27

Euro Forex Trade Idea: How to Profit From The Long-Term Bullish Trend

VolatilityMarkets recommends top quant trade ideas to capitalize on moving markets.

Price

EURUSD's last price was € 1.087321.

Trend analysis

In the short term, Euro has been accelerating higher. In the long term, Euro has been accelerating higher.

Value analysis

Over the past 20 days, the EURUSD price increased by 15 days and decreased by 5 days.

For every up day, there were 0.33 down days.

The average return on days where the price increased is 0.3482%.

The average return on days where the price decreased is -0.6354%.

Performance

Over the past 20 Days, the price has increased by 2.03% percent.

Over the past 20 days, the average return per day has been 0.1015% percent.

Trade idea

Given that the long-term trend is stronger, we advise a long trade with an overnight time horizon.

Quant trade idea

Buy EUR 428,602, or 4.29 lots of Euro, take a profit at € 1.0899 with a 50.05% chance of a EUR 998 gain, stop out at € 1.0848 with a 49.99% chance of a EUR 1,000 loss over an overnight time horizon.

EUR/USD trend analysis

The last price of EURUSD was € 1.087321. The long-term trend that is accelerating is stronger than the short-term trend that is accelerating. This trade is entered when the price has been going higher and faster during the last 20 days.

EUR/USD value analysis

The EURUSD price has grown 15 days and declined 5 days in the last 20 days. There were 0.33 down days for every up day. On days when the price climbed, the average return is 0.3482%. The average return on price decline days is -0.6354%. The price has climbed by 2.03% in the last 20 days. The average return every day over the last 20 days has been 0.1015% percent.

EUR/USD worst/best case scenario analysis

For one week, our worst-case scenario, in which we are 95% positive that this level will not trade for EURUSD, is € 1.079929, while our best-case scenario is € 1.094713. Levels outside of this range are unlikely to trade but are still feasible. We are 50% convinced that € 1.0848 will trade and 50% confident that € 1.0899 will trade. These amounts are statistically probable.

Expected range

For one week, our worst-case scenario, in which we are 95% positive that this level will not trade for EURUSD, is € 1.079929, while our best-case scenario is € 1.094713. Levels outside of this range are unlikely to be traded, although they are still feasible. We are 50% convinced that € 1.0848 will trade and 50% confident that € 1.0899 will trade. These amounts are statistically probable.

Key Takeaways:

• Price Today € 1.087321.
• Over the past 20 days, the EURUSD price increased by 15 days and decreased by 5 Days.
  
• For every up day, there were 0.33 down days.
  
• The average return on days where the price increased is 0.3482%.
  
• The average return on days where the price decreased is -0.6354%.
  
• Over the past 20 Days, the price has increased by 2.03% percent.
  
• Over the past 20 days, the average return per day has been 0.1015% percent.
  
• Over the past 20 days, The price has on average been accelerating: 1.0768 pips per day higher.
  
• Over the last session, the price increased by 30.46 pips.
  
• Over the last session, the price increased by 0.2801 %.
  
• Over the last session, the price accelerated by 26.56 pips.

30-03-2023 10:03:10

The New Zealand Dollar Has Peaked, and Investor Confidence is Next

On Wednesday, the New Zealand dollar fell. In the North American session, the NZD/USD is trading at 0.6236, down 0.28%. Pending House Sales in the United States declined but were better than predicted. ANZ Business Confidence is released later in the day in New Zealand.

Business confidence in New Zealand is projected to rise.

The business sector in New Zealand has been negative about the economy, and this is projected to continue. The ANZ Business Confidence Index has been in negative territory for some time, and the March publication on Thursday is likely to provide little respite (New Zealand time). The current estimate is -47.5, up from -43.3 before. The bright side is that things have improved from December's multi-year low reading of -70.2.

The New Zealand economy slowed in Q4, with a y/y rise of 2.2%, down from 6.4% in Q3 and falling short of the 3.3% projection. The ongoing rise in interest rates has slowed economic growth, which RBNZ Chief Economist Conway describes as "desirable." Conway admitted that, despite the Fed's strong tightening cycle, it remained unclear if inflation expectations had been managed.

Notwithstanding the RBNZ's tightening, inflation is expected to be about 5.5% in Q1. The RBNZ meets again on April 5th, with the market pricing in a 25-bp walk at 90%. With a 50/50 possibility of another rate walk in May and increased talk of a rate drop before the end of the year, this might be the end of the current tightening cycle.

Pending House Sales in the United States outpaced

In the United States, Pending House Sales came in at 0.8% in February, compared to 8.9% in January and a forecast of -2.9%. The Case-Shiller Housing Index fell for the ninth consecutive month in January, falling to 2.5%, below the prediction of 2.6% and the previous reading of 4.6%. The housing market is in decline, with mortgage payments nearly double from a year ago.

NZD/USD Technical

• NZD/USD put pressure on resistance at 0.6276 earlier in the day. Above, there is resistance at 0.6349
  
• There is support at 0.6221 and 0.6148
  

29-03-2023 04:03:32

GBP/USD Price Level Is Weak Follow-up, Focus on the US GDP

• The GBP/USD pair is now trading just below key resistance.
• A comeback was natural after the previous decline.
• The statistics from the United States should be crucial tomorrow.

The GBP/USD exchange rate fell in the short term, and it was trading at 1.2308 at the time of writing. Following such rapid expansion, a reversal is likely.

Fundamentally, the USD was helped in yesterday's trading session by the US CB Consumer Confidence. The economic indicator was 104.2 points, up from 101.0 points predicted and higher than 103.4 points in the preceding reporting period.

The United Kingdom released mixed data today. Net Lending to People and M4 Money Supply were lower than projected, while Mortgage Approvals were lower than anticipated. Eventually, the FPC Meeting Minutes and FPC Announcement may cause the price to fluctuate.

In contrast, the US Pending House Sales might fall by 2.9% compared to the 8.1% increase in the previous reporting period.

Because the United States will disclose significant data tomorrow, the fundamentals should take the lead and move the rate. Final GDP may expand by 2.7%, while Unemployment Claims are projected to be 196K in the previous week. Good US statistics should help the dollar.

From a technical standpoint, the GBP/USD pair has formed a probable Rising Wedge pattern. This is referred to as a reversal formation. Yet, the price failed to consolidate below the psychological barrier of 1.2200, indicating that sellers were fatigued.

Following the last sell-off, the GBP/USD pair was predicted to recover to the broken uptrend line. As shown on the hourly chart, the price failed to test the broken dynamic support and has now hit the previous high of 1.2343, which serves as a static resistance.

Failure to stay above the weekly R1 (1.2330) may signal the end of the up leg, and the sellers may seize complete control. The most recent bullish momentum might be a flag pattern. Yet, a successful breach through 1.2343 initiates additional growth and renders the bearish scenario worthless.

28-03-2023 03:03:28

GBP/USD Bullish Forex Analysis, Nearing 9-Month High Price

Today’s GBP/USD Signals:

Risk 0.75%.

Trades may only be entered before 5 pm London time today. 

Long Trade Idea

• Long on the next touch of $1.2292 or $1.2266 after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe.
• Set the stop loss one pip below the current swing low.
• If the transaction is 25 pips in profit, adjust the stop loss to break even.
• When the price reaches 25 pips in profit, take 50% of the trade as profit and let the rest of the position run.

Short Trade Ideas

• Short after a negative price action reversal on the H1 timeframe, on the next touch of $1.2368 or $1.2467.
• Set the stop loss one pip above the current swing high.
• If the transaction is 25 pips in profit, adjust the stop loss to break even.
• When the price reaches 25 pips in profit, take 50% of the trade as profit and let the rest of the position run.
  

The best way to spot a classic "price action reversal" is for an hourly candle to close with a higher close, such as a pin bar, doji, outside, or even just an engulfing candle. You can profit from these levels or zones by observing the price action that occurs at the specified levels.

GBP/USD Analysis

The previous forecast for the GBP/USD currency pair on Monday last week that was weakly bullish, with room to rise before reaching the nearest resistance level at $1.2264. We're looking to enter a new long trade if we got a bullish bounce at the nearest support level of $1.2167, targeting the resistance level at $1.2264.

This was a good call as it correctly identified a profitable trade opportunity.

The technical picture remains bullish, as the downward trend in the US Dollar continues over both the long and short terms. The British Pound is quite strong, and the price is now only about 100 pips from its highest price since June 2022.

Technically, the bullish case is strengthened by the symmetrical ascending price channel within which the price is firmly established, as shown in the price chart below.

At now, the price appears to be seeing little resistance around $1.2325, but this may be overcome. A retreat to the nearest support level around $1.2292, followed by a strong bullish recovery, could present an ideal chance to begin a fresh long trade. This will seem considerably better if the rejection of the confluent round number at $1.2300 is also visible.

About the GBP, at 9:45 a.m. London time, the Governor of the Bank of England will speak before the British Parliament regarding the American financial crisis. The CB Consumer Confidence statistics for the USD will be released at 3 pm.

27-03-2023 08:03:15

The Dollar is Stable as Investors Remain Concerned Crisis

The dollar held steady on Monday, while the yen stayed at a seven-week high as investors examined steps by authorities and regulators to calm concerns about the global financial system.

The dollar index, which compares the greenback to six rival currencies, was up 0.078% at 103.060, after rising 0.5% on Friday amid banking jitters, with shares of Deutsche Bank falling nearly 9%.

Global banking equities have been pummelling this month as a result of the abrupt collapse of two US bankers and the last-minute bailout of struggling Swiss bank Credit Suisse, with regulators stepping in to calm investors' fears.

Notwithstanding the burden on some institutions, the US Financial Stability Oversight Council concluded on Friday that the US financial system remained "strong and robust." Investors, on the other hand, are apprehensive.

"Pragmatic action by central banks, governments, and the private sector has thus far been inadequate to provide investors with confidence that the situation has been contained," said Marc Chandler, chief market analyst at Bannockburn Global FX.

On Friday, risk-averse investors drove the yen to a seven-week high of 129.65 per dollar. On Monday, it was at 130.70. The Fed hiked interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, as expected, but adopted a cautious attitude on the outlook due to financial sector upheaval, even as Fed Chief Jerome Powell left the door open for more rate hikes if required.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are pricing in an 87% likelihood of the Fed holding interest rates steady at its next meeting in May and predict a rate decrease as early as July.

"Contrary to Powell's obvious signal," Chandler added, "the Fed funds futures are pricing in considerable easing in the coming months." "This is highly violent and beyond comprehension."

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari stated on Sunday that recent stress in the banking industry, as well as the risk of a subsequent credit crisis, has pushed the United States closer to recession.

"What we don't know is how much of these financial concerns are causing a general credit constraint. The credit crisis will then slow the economy "Kashkari stated this on the CCBS show Face the Nation. "This is something we are keeping a careful eye on."

Meanwhile, the euro was up 0.03% at $1.0762, following a 0.6% drop on Friday. Sterling was trading at $1.2236, up 0.06% on the day after falling 0.5% on Friday. 

The Australian currency increased 0.03% against the US dollar to $0.665. The kiwi stayed unchanged at $0.620. Bitcoin yesterday increased 0.92% to $27,883.00 in cryptocurrencies. Ethereum just gained 1.05% to $1,769.40.

26-03-2023 08:03:51

GBP/USD: Weekly Forecast 26th March - 1st April

The GBP/USD had a bumpy week, as trading within the currency pair reflected the anxious behavioral attitude prevailing in the broader market. The GBP/USD reached a high of around 1.23430 on Thursday of last week, as the Bank of England followed the lead of the US Federal Reserve and raised its Official Bank Rate by 0.25% to 4.25%.

While the Bank of England's moves were expected and likely spurred the wave of purchasing for the GBP/USD, things took a turn on Friday as corporate banking anxieties seeped back into the marketplace's mentality.

Suspicions surround central banks as they operate in the shadows. Corporate Finance is on the rise. The very modest highs hit in the GBP/USD last week indicated that financial institutions anticipated the BoE would follow the US Federal Reserve's stance and provide strong language on inflation.

The Bank of England issued a warning to businesses last week to halt boosting prices. Yet, the BoE, like the Fed, has shown its inability to cope with reality. Inflation, which is caused by increased prices charged to customers at the end of the supply chain, is the outcome of rising manufacturing costs.

The point is that neither the Fed nor the BoE appears to have a firm grip on how to control inflation and appear to be waging lost fights.

• And, while inflation continues to be a source of concern, the corporate banking sector is also a source of concern.
  
• Although technical traders may not want to hear it, concerns over Deutsche Bank this past Friday caused volatility in Forex and a rush to safe havens, implying that the Dollar strengthened as panic grew.

Last week, support levels were durable, but they may be vulnerable if things get dangerous.

While the GBP/USD fell to levels just below 1.21900 early in the day, the currency pair recovered by the end of the day. The impacts of uneasy behavioral sentiment have caused volatility in Forex over the previous two weeks, and this week might be reactive as well.

While support levels have persisted and the lows from last week were seen on Monday as the GBP/USD rose, this is because financial houses believe the US Federal Reserve would be hard-pressed to continue hiking interest rates in the future, corporate banking sector concern remains a serious issue.

GBP/USD Weekly Outlook:

The speculative price range for GBP/USD is 1.20950 to 1.23350

Traders can expect bumpy trading to continue in the coming days since the shadows over the corporate banking sector are unlikely to vanish fast. Speculators may be tempted to assume support levels in the GBP/USD should be durable around the 1.22000 level theoretically, but if fragile sentiment begins to boil, the currency pair may see lows tested again if financial houses seek risk-averse positions, implying support may disintegrate.

If the 1.21900 level is ignored, the next lower challenge for the GBP/USD might be the 1.21700 level. If this ratio falls below 1, it indicates that something has gone wrong in the corporate banking sector, and people are reacting by buying Dollars. It appears as a low of about 1.21000 might hold. Traders are encouraged to exercise caution and actively follow breaking developments in the coming days.

The GBP/ability USD's to surge higher last week came as little surprise, but the reversion lower serves as a warning that broad market conditions remain fragile. If calmer seas can be discovered and the financial sector can reassure investors and speculators, the GBP/USD might resume its upward trend, with 1.23000 ratios as a likely objective.

Traders should, however, not get unduly confident too soon, and should utilize realistic take-profit orders to cash out winning bets. When looking at a three-month chart, the GBP/USD is technically in the midst of its mid-term price range. Speculative traders should exercise caution in the coming days and use risk management.

26-03-2023 07:03:24

Weekly Forex Forecast (March 27-31, 2023)

The DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD, and EURJPY are all included in today's weekly currency prediction. This week, the US Dollar Index (DXY) made a big bullish recovery, while the EURUSD approached channel support from October.

This year, we also have a possible 900-pip chance on USDCAD and a EURJPY reversal pattern worth watching. Get more information on this and other topics in today's forex forecast.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Forecast

The DXY gave us a substantial recovery with a close above 102.60 on Thursday. I've written on this topic numerous times this month, most recently immediately before Thursday's return. After Thursday's bullish pin bar, DXY surged higher on Friday, as predicted.

Dollar bulls, on the other hand, will find stiff resistance this week near the 103.50 yearly open. It will require a daily close above that to return it to support and open the door to higher levels such as the top of this channel and 104.12. 

Apart from that, we have the monthly open at 105.04 and the multi-month resistance at 105.60. So DXY bulls aren't out of the woods yet, but the dollar remains bullish when trading above the 102.60 level.

EURUSD Forecast

Last week, as the euro was trading at 1.0900, EURUSD fell from a trend line I suggested on Discord. The DXY reclaimed 102.60, as the EURUSD reversed downward from 1.0900.

In addition, the pair looks to have ended the week slightly below 1.0760, which might prove crucial early this week. Therefore, it may take the first 24 hours of the week to see whether 1.0760 is still acting as resistance.

As I mentioned on Discord, I have a EURUSD short position starting around 1.0852. I'm willing to add to it if we see follow-through, but only when EURUSD falls below 1.0650.

GBPUSD Forecast

Last week, GBPUSD challenged the 1.2200 midpoints after crafting a 4-hour rising wedge. Before the breakdown, we discussed this pattern in the members' section, and several members managed short enters with a 1.2200 goal.

In the next week, 1.2200 will serve as support, with a daily closure below that triggering a bearish fakeout and exposing the 1.1900 range lows. GBPUSD faces resistance at last week's 1.2350 highs, followed by the 1.2445 range highs.

USDCAD Forecast

I went long USDCAD last week at 1.3664, a trade I disclosed with members at the time. On Friday, I recorded roughly a 25% profit, although I still want USDCAD higher.

If bulls can hold 1.3735 early this week, it might present an entry point for a run back to 1.3800 resistance, then 1.3880. Yet, while USDCAD is trading sideways, we may see another run at 1.3660.

But, as I said on Friday, the pair might stage a 900-pip rally later this year to challenge the 1.4670 multi-year range highs. I'm positive on USDCAD as long as it closes over 1.3660 daily.

EURJPY Forecast

EURJPY has formed a possible head and shoulders pattern since May. It's a possible pattern until sellers can clinch a daily close below 139.00. A daily close below the neckline will reveal the 133.40 support zone, followed by the measured goal of 127.00. Conversely, a rise above the 145.60 high would rule out the possibility. 

25-03-2023 08:03:34

Crypto Prices Today: Bitcoin Down 2.91%, Ethereum Down 3.54%

The worldwide cryptocurrency market cap fell by 2.77 percent. Arbitrum ARB was the most popular cryptocurrency, while Flare FLR was the best performer.

The worldwide crypto market cap was $1.15 trillion at noon IST on March 25, 2023, a 2.77 percent reduction from the previous day. Total crypto market volume over the preceding 24 hours was $54.36 billion, a 0.08 percent decrease.

DeFi's total volume was $4.05 billion, accounting for 7.45 percent of the overall crypto market volume. According to Coinmarketcap, Bitcoin's dominance was 46.16 percent, a 0.06 percent fall from the previous day.

Arbitrum ARB was the most popular cryptocurrency at noon IST, with a price of $1.21, a 14.28% decrease from the previous day. Flare FLR was the highest gainer, rising 6.64 percent to $0.03404. Its trading volume in 24 hours was $24.41 million. 

Arbitrum ARB was the most significant loss, falling 15.01 percent to $1.20. Its trading volume in 24 hours was $2.37 billion.

Pricing of Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin's price has dropped by 2.91 percent to $27,522.02. Its trading volume in 24 hours was $26.06 billion. It is still rated first on Coinmarketcap in terms of market capitalization, as it was yesterday. Its domination at noon IST was 46.16 percent, a 0.06 percent fall from the previous day.

Ethereum: The price of Ethereum fell 3.54 percent in the previous 24 hours to $1,749.65, with a trading volume of $10.65 billion.

Tether:  It has gained 0.05 percent in the previous 24 hours. It was trading at $1.00, as it had done the day before, with a 24-hour trading volume of $39.86 billion. On coinmarketcap, it was rated third.

Other Cryptocurrencies

In the last 24 hours, the price of Solana (SOL) fell 6.17 percent to $20.64.

Avalanche was trading at $16.99, down 2.28 percent, on a $160.73 million 24-hour trading volume.

Cardano (ADA) dropped 1.57 percent. With a 24-hour trading volume of $287.67 million, it was placed sixth.

Meme Coins

Dogecoin (DOGE) fell 2.53% with a 24-hour trading volume of $405.46 million. It is now rated ninth on coinmarketcap.

Shiba Inu fell 1.63 percent to $0.00001061 at midnight IST.

Decentralized Finance (DeFi)

Around noon IST, the overall volume in DeFi was $4.05 billion, accounting for 7.45 percent of the entire 24-hour activity in the crypto market.

Yearn. finance has been down 4.29 percent to $8,253.91 in the last 24 hours, with a market worth of $302.48 million.

24-03-2023 08:03:30

EURUSD Falls Through the 200 hour MA 50% Midway Breakout 

Today, the EURUSD dropped quickly. If you look at the hourly chart above, you'll notice that the pair was also moving to and through a couple of critical technical levels at the lows today.

The 200-hour moving average and the 50% midpoint of the run-up from last week's low to this week's high were among those milestones. Several technical levels have come together at 1.0722.

The low price reached 1.07125, about 10 pips below the level, but was unable to maintain momentum and quickly rebounded above it. The current exchange rate is 1.0764. This morning, the resistance ranged from 1.0744 to 1.07592. Staying below that level would give the sellers complete control.

The price is attempting to re-break above that level. The 38.2% retracement has been broken at 1.0711, and the 100-hour moving average (blue line in the chart above) is at 1.0794. They are topside objectives.

The stock market has found some solace. Deutsche Bank shares are presently trading at $8.34, up from a low of $7.96. After trading as low as $41.28, the US regional bank ETF index (KRE) is presently trading almost flat at $42.16.

The major indices are still down, with the Dow down 192 points or 0.59%, the S&P down -21 points or -0.54%, and the NASDAQ down -58 points or -0.49%, but they are all off-day lows.

Finally, US yields are rising, but only a little. Higher yields in this situation indicate less worry and less flight to safety:

• 2-year 3.703% down 10.02 basis points. It traded as low as 3.555%
• 10-year yield 3.354%. The intraday low was at 3.287%
• The 30-year yield of 3.65%, up from 3.603%

24-03-2023 02:03:47

The Dollar Falls as Markets Assess the Fed's Rate Hike Path; The Yen Climbs

The dollar fell to near seven-week lows on Friday as investors remained wary of banks and traders assessed the Federal Reserve's odds of pausing interest rate rises. The dollar index, which compares the US currency to six major competitors, lost 0.097% to 102.48, slightly above the seven-week low of 101.91 set on Thursday.

On Thursday, the index posted its first increase in six trading days. The Fed hiked interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, as expected, but adopted a cautious attitude on the outlook due to financial sector upheaval, even as Fed Chief Jerome Powell left the door open for more rate hikes if required.

To calm market fears, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen repeated on Thursday that she was willing to take more steps to guarantee that Americans' bank accounts were safe. According to the CME Fed Watch tool, markets are pricing in a 68% likelihood of the Fed holding interest rates steady at the next meeting and a 32% possibility of another 25 basis point rise.

Banking equities have taken a beating in the previous two weeks as a result of the abrupt bankruptcies of two smaller bankers in the United States and the emergency sale of troubled Swiss bank Credit Suisse to competitor UBS. According to Christopher Wong, currency analyst at OCBC, the FX universe appeared to indicate a bout of risk aversion, with haven proxies, gold, and the yen outperforming and most other currencies weakening.

"I believe that with sentiment being weak, price action can swing both ways depending on if any contagion shocks occur." The yen rose 0.51% to 130.16 per dollar after hitting a six-week high of 130.055 earlier in the session. Core consumer inflation in Japan dropped in February, but an index that excludes energy costs hit a four-decade high, according to statistics released on Friday.

With inflation still surpassing the Bank of Japan's 2% objective, economists believe the data will keep market expectations of a near-term change in the Bank of Japan's bond yield control policy alive. Similarly, the Bank of England hiked interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday but indicated a surprising uptick in inflation would likely dissipate quickly, fueling speculation that it had reached the end of its walk cycle.

Sterling remained unchanged at $1.2285 after reaching a seven-week high of $1.2341 in turbulent trade on Thursday. The euro was up 0.03% at $1.0833, just a tad below its seven-week high of $1.0930 set on Thursday. Investors will be looking for flash Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for March from the Eurozone, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom, which will be released later in the day to measure the strength of the European economy.

"The market will be looking at PMI releases throughout the world for an update on not just an activity but also what firms are saying on demand, supply chain disinflation, salaries, and pricing power," said Rodrigo Catril, senior currency strategist at National Australia Bank. The Australian dollar increased by 0.07% to $0.669, while the New Zealand dollar decreased by 0.14% to $0.624.

23-03-2023 07:03:57

Dollar Declines For the Sixth day; BoE, SNB, and Norges Bank Increase Interest Rates

The dollar was on track for its longest losing streak in two and a half years on Thursday after the Federal Reserve signaled an end to interest rate hikes, while the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England continued to raise rates.

The Fed raised its benchmark funds rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday, as expected, but dropped language about "ongoing increases" in favor of "some additional" increases as it monitors how shaky bank confidence affects the economy.

Futures suggest a 50% possibility of another quarter-point raise, compared to a 50% chance of additional tightening in Europe. The euro surged to a seven-week high of $1.0930, having previously climbed for six successive sessions. It was last trading at $1.0874.

The Fed's shift in tone makes it less likely that markets will return to fearing that solid economic data would force rates higher, according to Brian Daingerfield, NatWest Markets' head of G10 FX strategy.

"From a foreign exchange standpoint, we believe it indicates more dollar depreciation since the Fed cycle's ceiling has fallen," he added.

The dollar index, which compares the currency to six major rivals, was recently down 0.1% at 102.35, on course for its sixth consecutive daily decline, the longest such sequence since September 2021.

The Bank of England hiked borrowing prices by 25 basis points on Thursday, as expected, and stated that more tightening might be necessary if there were signs of more persistent price pressures.

"They left the door open for another hike down the road," said Danske Bank FX analyst Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen. "We don't see divergence reasons between the euro and pound, and we view it rangebound around the 0.88 level due to a dissimilar GDP forecast or a global investment climate."

The euro was last trading at 88.32 pence versus the pound, down 0.2%. Sterling rose 0.3% versus the dollar to $1.2309, having previously reached a seven-week high of $1.2341.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) likewise hiked its policy rate by 50 basis points, attempting to strike a compromise between fighting inflation and averting financial market turbulence, while reiterating its willingness to participate in the foreign currency market.

The SNB stated that the steps made by authorities addressing Credit Suisse over the weekend had "put a stop to the issue." Following the verdict, the franc rose and was recently up 0.1% against the dollar at 0.9164.

"We're witnessing a higher franc, not just because of the raise, but also because they declared they put a stop to the banking sector problem," said Kundby-Nielsen of Danske Bank.

The Norwegian crown rose versus the euro and dollar after the Norges Bank lifted its interest rate by 25 basis points to 3% and suggested another boost was anticipated in May.

The Australian and New Zealand currencies increased by 0.4% and 0.8%, respectively. The dollar/yen, which closely tracks US rates, barely changed after touching a six-week low of 130.41 earlier.

Two-year US Treasury rates remained unchanged after falling by approximately 20 basis points on Wednesday. After a run on Silicon Valley Bank two weeks ago and the abrupt bankruptcy of Credit Suisse, financial markets throughout the world have been roiled.

The attention on the financial front is now mostly on regional institutions in the United States, where fears of a contagion run on deposits remain high. Deposit flows have stabilized in the previous week, according to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, and smaller lenders said they were encouraged by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's words that deposit insurance would be considered if there was a contagion risk.

According to Daniel Kimbell, an executive at the local Passumpsic Bank in St Johnsbury, Vermont, this "removed the worry out of the room." Regional lenders' stock, on the other hand, declined.

23-03-2023 07:03:01

The Dollar Falls on the Fed, But Still it Shows Signs of Recovery

The US Federal Reserve boosted interest rates by 25 basis points, as predicted. As the Federal Reserve attempts to strike a balance between rising inflation and banking turbulence, the end of the tightening cycle is approaching.

Markets soared on the news but subsequently reversed, aided by remarks from US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. She stated that "blanket insurance" for bank deposits is not being considered.

On Wednesday, US rates fell, with the 10-year falling to 3.43% and the 2-year sliding to 3.92%. The US Dollar Index fell 0.65% for the sixth day in a row. Although touching weekly lows versus the majority of its rivals, the dollar closed far above the lows, indicating some hopeful indicators.

Volatility in the currency markets is expected to remain excessive, which may spark a broad-based rebound or drive the US dollar to new lows. The Japanese yen was among the best performers, aided by a drop in US rates. USD/JPY closed below 131.50 for the second time in a month. 

The Euro climbed across the board, helped by remarks from European Central Bank (ECB) officials indicating that if the financial crisis eases, additional rate rises are likely. The combination of a lower US dollar following the FOMC meeting and a strong Euro led EUR/USD to 1.0911, the highest level since February 2, before falling to 1.0860.

Thursday is the most probable day for the Monetary Policy Committee to meet, according to the Monetary Policy Committee. The average forecast is for a 25 basis point hike, especially after inflation unexpectedly surged in February, with the annual rate jumping to 10.4%. GBP/USD rose beyond 1.2300 on Wednesday but settled around 1.2260. It has a positive tilt but is unable to consolidate over 1.2300.

USD/CHF fell below 0.9200 for the first time in a week. On Thursday, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will publish its monetary policy decision, with market investors anticipating a rate rise of 50 basis points to 1.50%.

The drop in Wall Street equities prices impacted commodity currencies. The AUD/USD pair rapidly reversed from 0.6759 to 0.6680, the NZD/USD pair touched 0.6300 and finished closer to 0.6200, and the USD/CAD pair soared down to 1.3655, only to finish the day higher than 1.3730. At the time, stocks are driving the direction of the pairings.

Bitcoin dropped from $28,800 to $27,700 following the Fed meeting. Gold and silver prices rose as a result of lower US rates. After reaching weekly highs, crude oil prices closed nearly flat.

22-03-2023 07:03:46

Gold: Top-down Technical Analysis

Top-down technical analysis might be the direction for market investors/traders during turbulent periods like the present Credit Suisse-bailout era. Concentrating on numerous timeframes helps prevent making conclusions based solely on the extremely short-term periods under consideration.

This method is more time-consuming and is often overlooked by traders, but the rewards exceed the drawbacks. In this research, we examine gold, which, like other financial products, is still feeling the aftershocks of the banking sector crisis, beginning with the longer term and progressively progressing to the shorter term.

Weekly timeframe:

We start with the weekly chart and the idea is to determine the long-term trend and important support/resistance levels. From its low of 1,614 in September 2022, gold has risen dramatically and is now trading over the 2,000 mark. Since August 2020, gold has breached this critical psychologically significant region three times.

This is not unexpected considering the severe events both economically and financially that the globe has been going through since the Covid epidemic and more recently the skyrocketing inflation era.

The present price level is above the several simple moving averages (SMAs) used here as well as a crucial upward-sloping trendline. Meanwhile, the Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) is trading over the 25 levels, indicating that the market is trending. As the technical picture remains optimistic, the stochastic oscillator is attempting to contradict it.

The higher high in gold has been matched with a lower high by the stochastic oscillator. The bears might use this bearish divergence to push the gold market lower, with a September 4, 2011, high of 1,921 as their first target.

Daily Timeframe:

The daily chart is popular among traders and attracts the largest interest. The following is a list of the most recent articles I've written about the subject.

The tremendous increase that has occurred since March 8 has brought the index above 2,010, the highest level since March 9, 2022. Gold has fallen in the previous three sessions, even though the market mood looks to have recovered slightly from last week.

The ADX shows this, with the bullish trend appearing at the peak. Similarly, the stochastic oscillator is attempting to break through its overbought zone. With the September 6, 2011 high of 1,921 close, such a move might elicit a negative reaction. When looking at gold's performance in March-April 2022 and January 2023, this area looks to be troubling the bears. Given the robust gain last week, such a correction might even benefit the bulls, assuming the next local dip is above the 1,800 level.

4-Hour Timeframe:

Long-term investors would be satisfied with weekly and daily research, whilst extremely short-term traders would glance briefly at the 4-hour chart before moving on to the 1-hour and 15-minute timeframes. For our purposes, four hours seemed to be sufficient to comprehend the short-term dynamics and identify significant levels for future market entry and exit. Since the March 8 lows, gold has risen dramatically, breaking over the psychological barrier of 2,000.

The market has corrected in each of the three daily sessions as it attempts to reach a new equilibrium around the 1,840 level. The overall technical picture suggests that the market is becoming more balanced, maybe in preparation for the next move. The ADX is slightly above its "trendless" zone, while the RSI is hanging around the 50-point mark. Also, the stochastic oscillator looks to be flattening just above its oversold region.

Nonetheless, the bulls may be able to draw courage from the growing bullish divergence (pink line at the 4-hour chart). The higher low in gold's price action has been greeted by a lower low in the stochastic. The next level of resistance is around 1,960, which is the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the February 28-March 23 upswing and the February 2 high. The bears, on the other hand, would have to contend with the March 9 upward-sloping trendline and, finally, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the 50-day SMA at the 1,923-1,931 level.

Bringing it All Together:

The practice of studying for several periods takes time, but it is still a superior approach to analyzing the market. The periods studied may be tailored to each trader's profile, but we feel that the above top-down technique should be part of every trader's arsenal. Regarding the gold examined here:

• The bullish trend is still visible on the weekly chart. To change the market's fate, bears must breach below 1,850.
• With the present momentum indications and the bears' ability to breach the 1,920 regions, the correction seems to have legs.
• Although the overall picture suggests a balanced market, a bullish divergence and a fading positive trend might rekindle the bulls' hunger.

22-03-2023 10:03:11

The Forex Market - USD CAD and AUD USD Analysis

USDCAD Has a Bearish Trends:

The USDCAD pair moved with evident optimism yesterday, breaking over 1.3680 and settling above it, but we observe that recent trades are contained inside the bearish flag pattern, as the price settles below this pattern's resistance and continues to record sliding peaks.

To evaluate the reasons for today's bad start, we see that stochastic has definitely lost its positive momentum and is now beginning to overlap adversely.

As a result of these factors, we recommend a bearish bias for today, with targets beginning with breaking 1.3650 to activate the negative effect of the mentioned pattern, followed by rallying towards 1.3500 as the next main station, noting that breaking 1.3730 will halt the expected decline and cause the price to rise. Today's trading range is predicted to be between 1.3620 support and 1.3770 resistance.

AUDUSD is Staying Beyond the Support Level:

The AUDUSD pair tested and held above the 0.6665 level, followed by clear positive indications from stochastic, waiting to inspire the price to restart the projected bullish wave on an intraday basis, with 0.6780 being the next important station.

As a result, we will continue to recommend the positive trend for the foreseeable future, noting that breaching 0.6665 and remaining below it will press on the price to accomplish another negative correction, with the next objective reaching 0.6550. Today's trading range is predicted to be between 0.6650 support and 0.6750 resistance. Today's projected trend: bullish

21-03-2023 11:03:11

The USDCAD has broken through the support level.

The USDCAD pair managed to break the 1.3680 level and complete the daily candlestick below it, which effectively confirms the continuation of the projected negative trend scenario for the forthcoming period, paving the way for a move towards 1.3500, our next primary objective.

The triple top pattern creates negative pressure that supports the continuation of the suggested bearish bias, and breaking 1.3655 will ease the mission of reaching the desired target, while breaking 1.3680 and 1.3710 levels will stop the current negative pressure and cause the price to attempt to recover.

Today's trading range is predicted to be between 1.3590 support and 1.3740 resistance.

Today's projected trend is bearish.

21-03-2023 05:03:43

GBP/USD Forex Forecast: Bullish Over $1.2167

Today’s GBP/USD Signals:

Risk 0.75%.

Trades must be taken before 5 pm London time today only. 

Long Trade Idea

• Long entry after a positive price action reversal on the H1 timeframe on the next touch of $1.2167, $1.2127, or $1.2102.
• Set the stop loss one pip below the current swing low.
• After the trade is 25 pips in profit, move the stop loss to break even.
• When the price reaches 25 pips in profit, take 50% of the position as profit and allow the rest to ride

Short Trade Ideas

• Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.2264 or $1.2290.
• Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
• Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 25 pips in profit.
• Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 25 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.

The simplest way to see a typical "price action reversal" is for an hourly candle to finish with a higher close, such as a pin bar, doji, outside, or even simply an engulfing candle. You can profit from these levels or zones by observing the price activity that occurs at the specified levels.

GBP/USD Analysis

The technical picture here is still optimistic, but just marginally so. The path of least resistance is undoubtedly higher since there is still an opportunity to advance before reaching the nearest resistance level at $1.2264. Below the present price, there is a cluster of three closely packed support levels, all above the round number at $1.2100, and the price is unlikely to be able to break down below all three today.

Moving to fundamentals, the US Dollar is in a long-term decline, aided by the ongoing financial crisis, which is putting pressure on the Fed to stop rising rates, or at the very least to make this week the final, little boost of the current cycle.

The British Pound received a modest lift from last week's UK budget estimates, which saw the UK escaping the previously-expected recession later this year, while inflation forecasts were also lowered. For these reasons, I would gladly join a new long trade if we see a bullish bounce at the nearest support level of $1.2167, with a target of $1.2264.

20-03-2023 01:03:20

The Safe-Haven Yen Regains Strength as Concerns About Bank Contagion Grow

The safe-haven yen recovered from early severe drops, but the risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand currencies lost ground as early optimism about global regulators' attempts to limit a financial crisis faded.

Japan's yen, which is particularly sensitive to long-term Treasury rates, recovered from losses as high as 0.6% to the last be level versus the dollar after the 10-year yield in the United States fell dramatically ahead of the start of European trade, erasing an earlier 12-basis-point spike.

The Australian dollar, which had risen by 0.7% to a nearly two-week high of $0.6743, was last 0.2% weaker at $0.6683, falling below the carefully monitored $0.67 barrier. The New Zealand kiwi traded 0.3% weaker at $0.6250, giving up a 0.3% gain earlier.

The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, Bank of Canada, and Bank of Japan announced a concerted operation to improve market liquidity over the weekend. This came after Swiss authorities negotiated a takeover of Credit Suisse by UBS at a significant discount and with a $17 billion debt writedown.

"Risk aversion is the market's driving factor," said Takahiro Sekido, chief Japan strategist at MUFG. "I'm not that gloomy, but we have to wait and see how much risk contagion from Europe we will see," he added. "I expect the yen to remain high at least this week."

The yen recently traded at 131.79 per dollar, maintaining its 2.5% rise from the previous week. The euro was roughly steady at $1.0671, while the sterling was little changed at $1.2189, erasing previous slight gains.

The Fed's rate decision on Wednesday adds another layer of uncertainty. Traders believe a quarter-point increase is still inevitable, but they are now expecting rates to peak in May at roughly 4.8%, followed by a steady succession of decreases until the end of the year.

The US dollar index, which measures the currency against six major peers, including the yen and euro, was flat at 103.80, stabilizing after a 0.7% drop last week.

"Almost regardless of the Fed this week, (it's) difficult to see risk markets swiftly rowing away from banking sector concerns, leaving USD not far from a safety bid," National Australia Bank's head of foreign-exchange strategy, Ray Attrill, wrote in a note to clients.

Bitcoin paused after reaching a nine-month high of $28,474 on Sunday and was last trading 1.5% down at approximately $27,629. Gold remained unchanged at $1,989 per ounce, having recovered from a 1% drop.

19-03-2023 12:03:23

Bitcoin Hit $1 Million in 90 Days, and The Dollar Will be Gone

BitcoinBTC -1.2%, Ethereum, and other major cryptocurrencies have soared this week amid a financial crisis that might trigger a large Federal Reserve earthquake.

The bitcoin price has surpassed $27,000 per bitcoin, an increase of more than 30% since last week, reaching a high not seen since June of last year. The bitcoin craze has also pushed the price of Ethereum and other major cryptocurrencies skyward.

Now, after JPMorgan analysts predicted that the Fed's new bank backstop program could inject up to $2 trillion into the financial system, technology investor and former CoinbaseCOIN +10.6% chief technology officer Balaji Srinivasan has warned that the latest banking crisis could spark hyperinflation in the United States—and advised people to "buy bitcoin now and get your coins off exchanges."

"Why will it be so quick? Hyperinflation, on the other hand, happens quickly "Srinivasan wrote a lengthy tweet justifying his confidence. "Digital pandemics (COVID), digital riots (BLM), and digital bank runs have all occurred (SVB). Things will move quickly if people verify what I'm saying and discover that the Federal Reserve has misled the amount of money in the banks. All dollar holders are eradicated."

"Why will it be so quick? Hyperinflation, on the other hand, happens quickly "Srinivasan wrote a lengthy tweet justifying his confidence. "Digital pandemics (COVID), digital riots (BLM), and digital bank runs have all occurred (SVB). Things will move quickly if people verify what I'm saying and discover that the Federal Reserve has misled the amount of money in the banks. All dollar holders are eradicated."

Srinivasan was responding to a tweet from @jdcmedlock, who said he'd "bet anyone 1 million dollars that the United States does not enter hyperinflation." Srinivasan defined the conditions of the bet as follows: if bitcoin is worth more than $1 million in 90 days, he wins; if it is worth less, he loses "The counterparty receives the million dollars... Because all other fiat currencies may and will be inflated away, we must define hyperinflation in terms of [bitcoin] vs. [US dollars]."

The bitcoin, which was put up on behalf of @jdcmedlock by pro poker player Isaac Haxton, and Srinivasan's dollars will be kept in escrow by crypto influencer and podcast host Jordan Fish, who tweets as @Cobie.

"I'm transferring $2 million into USDC for the bet," Srinivasan explained. "I'll do it with [@jdcmedlock] and one other individual, just to demonstrate the point."

"The central bank, the banks, and the bank regulators have bankrupted all of us," Srinivasan, who is credited for alerting the healthcare system to the severity of the Covid-19 outbreak, said on Twitter.

"They kept their insolvency a secret from you, the depositors. They're also planning to create $2 trillion to hyperinflate the currency. This will happen extremely rapidly in the digital era. Therefore, acquire bitcoin today and withdraw your cash from exchangers."

Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), a regional bank that specialised in startup and tech firm funding, was closed down last week after depositors became concerned that it was insolvent. Signature Bank, a crypto-friendly bank, was also closed down by regulators, possibly owing to worries about its anti-money laundering safeguards.

"Bitcoin benefits from full-fledged government-guaranteed deposit insurance, from inflation returning to 3%, allowing the central bank to become less hawkish, and from the regulatory overhang, which has impacted stablecoins such as BUSD BUSD and, more recently, USDC USDC," Markus Thielen, head of research and strategy at Matrixport, wrote in an emailed note.

18-03-2023 11:03:55

The Dollar Falls as Bank Lifelines Support Risk Level

The dollar fell on Friday as major US power brokers, including the government and banks, gave a lifeline to a failing regional institution to relieve financial system stress, giving investors some hope.

The bailout of First Republic Bank in the United States on Thursday increased risk appetite internationally on Friday, allowing the Australian and New Zealand currencies to jump.

This week has brought back memories of the 2008 financial crisis when dozens of organizations failed or were bailed out with billions of dollars from the government and central banks.

Three smaller lenders in the United States have had regulators and other banks step in to help them, while in Europe, Credit Suisse became the first major global bank to receive an emergency lifeline from the Swiss central bank since the financial crisis, restoring investor confidence and halting a deposit run.

With safeguards in place to support any distressed lenders and assurances from the European Central Bank that the eurozone banking system is strong, investors felt confident enough to sell the safe-haven US dollar.

"As long as there are no other negative headlines about the banking sector or anyone collapsing, we might just see a bit of risk-on, with equity heading higher, Treasuries giving up some of their gains, and the dollar rolling over in a combination of a relief rally and a position-squeeze," TraderX strategist Michael Brown said. The US dollar index slipped 0.21% to 104.07, owing primarily to gains in the euro and yen.

THE ECB RETAINS THE LINE

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates by 50 basis points at its policy meeting on Thursday. Policymakers at the European Central Bank, led by President Christine Lagarde, attempted to reassure investors that eurozone banks were robust and that higher interest rates if anything, should boost their margins.

Had the ECB proceeded with a lesser rate hike, or possibly no increase at all, in light of the turbulence in the banking sector this week, that might have gravely unnerved investors and spurred a considerably worse sell-off, experts said.

Money markets are presenting a much milder prognosis for interest rates than they have done of late, but with core inflation still growing and proving tenacious, there would be little rationale for the central bank to resist future rate rises, experts said.

Indeed, ECB policymaker Peter Kazimir stated on Friday that the bank needs to continue rising interest rates for this reason. The euro was recently up 0.3% against the dollar, trading at $1.0646, and up 0.2% against the pound, trading at 87.75 pence. So far this week, the euro has failed to gain ground against the dollar, losing 0.8% against the sterling.

The pound gained 0.12% to $1.2132, while the Swiss franc gained 0.35%. Earlier this week, the Swiss franc fell the most against the US dollar in a single day since 2015, when the central bank relaxed its currency peg.

The Japanese yen soared, as it often does during times of significant market volatility or stress. It was recently up 0.5% at 133.13 per dollar, on track for a 1% weekly gain.

Officials from Japan's Ministry of Finance, Financial Services Agency, and Bank of Japan will meet on Friday evening to examine financial markets, according to the Nikkei newspaper, amid concerns over the US banking crisis.

The Australian dollar, which frequently excels when investors are positive, surged 0.8% to $0.6707, while the New Zealand dollar advanced 0.9% to $0.625.

Next week's Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting takes center stage. Some investors are expecting that the Fed would scale down its aggressive rate-hike campaign to relieve banking sector stress.

17-03-2023 08:03:33

While Faith Helps, The US Dollar Struggles to Find Demand

As the market vibe improves as fears about a deeper financial crisis fade near the end of the week, the US Dollar is struggling to maintain its resilience versus its major competitors. In the European session, Eurostat will release February inflation figures (revision).

Later in the day, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Survey for March, as well as the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) Industrial Production figures for February, will be scrutinized for new impetus.

During its March policy meeting, the European Central Bank (ECB) boosted its main interest rates by 50 basis points (bps). While ECB President Christine Lagarde refrained from committing to further large rate rises shortly, she reassured investors that the Eurozone banking system was in excellent shape.

Meanwhile, the Fed stated late Thursday that 11 banks had placed $30 billion into First Republic Bank to assist it in resolving its liquidity problems. Wall Street's major indexes gained significant daily gains as a result of this event. After Wednesday's steep drop, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield increased by more than 3%.

Early Friday, US stock index futures are clinging to minor daily gains, while the US Dollar Index remains deep in negative territory, just below 104.00, and the 10-year US Treasury note rate hovers above 3.5%.

The EUR/USD fluctuated throughout the ECB event on Thursday but held its ground in the American session. The pair maintained its recovery momentum early Friday, trading above 1.0650.

GBP/USD gained ground on Thursday and continued to rise early Friday. The pair is trading over 1.2150 in the European morning, aided by continuing US Dollar weakening.

After Thursday's indecision, USD/JPY came under light negative pressure and fell to 133.00 on Friday. Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Friday that the short-term interest rate could be reduced further from minus 0.1%, but he couldn't say how much.

The Nikkei Asian Review reported during Asian trade hours that the Japanese Government, the Bank of Japan (BoJ), and the Financial Services Authority (FSA) will meet later this evening to review Japan's financial market position.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced in a statement early Friday that all New Zealand banks are now functioning beyond their minimal regulatory standards. On this news, the NZD/USD gained traction and advanced towards 0.6250.

Gold price finished nearly steady on Thursday as rising US Treasury note rates didn't allow XAU/USD to gain on the resumed US Dollar weakening. Yet, the pair appears to have reversed north on Friday morning, trading near $1,930.

Bitcoin is benefiting from the risk-on market climate and is trading above $26,000 early Friday, up roughly 4% on the day. After Thursday's rally, Ethereum is trading above $1,700 in the European morning.

16-03-2023 10:03:34

The USDCAD Rises – Analysis - 16-03-2023

The USDCAD pair couldn't stay below 1.3680 for long before rallying strongly upwards and returning to the bullish channel, reactivating the bullish wave and heading towards gains that begin at 1.3860 and extend to 1.3975.

As a result, we anticipate more bullish bias in the coming sessions, supported by the EMA50, which carries the price from below. However, breaking 1.3740 will put the price under negative pressure again, causing it to head towards testing 1.3680 initially, which represents a key level to detect the next trend, as breaking it will press the price to turn downward.

Today's trading range is predicted to be between 1.3680 support and 1.3840 resistance. The expected trend for today: Bullish.

15-03-2023 09:03:40

Bitcoin Exceeds $26,000 After the Expected February CPI Leak

Bitcoin's (BTC) recent rise has gained traction, fueled by fears about traditional banking following recent crashes and the expected inflation figures. The world's largest cryptocurrency has risen about 10% in the last 24%, trading at $25,854 at the time of writing, briefly approaching $26,000.

Bitcoin's price surpassed $26,000 on Tuesday, as investors worried about the impact of the Silicon Valley Bank (SBV) failure on the traditional banking industry. From its low on Friday, the world's largest cryptocurrency has risen about 27% to a three-week high of $26,431.

The rise comes just a few days after SBV was halted by US regulators due to heavy pressure. Economists called it the largest banking collapse since the global financial crisis of 2008.

The regulators also closed down Signature Bank on Sunday, the second-largest crypto-friendly bank after Silvergate, which also surrendered last week. Morgan Stanley analysts believe the financial crisis might herald better times for bitcoin following the worst crypto winter in history.

“Bitcoin was created as a way for anyone to hold value in a private digital wallet without needing an intermediary bank to hold the value for them or to facilitate transactions.”
– strategists at Morgan Stanley wrote in a note to clients.

Yet, analysts claim that bitcoin's price is not fully immune to the current financial crisis. Even though cryptocurrency can function without banks, "bitcoin's price, and therefore purchasing power, has been and continues to be impacted by fiat central bank policy and requires banks to assist flows into crypto," analysts wrote in a note.

February CPI Matches Estimates; Wall Street Split on Next Fed Rate Hike

As the recent Bitcoin surge accelerated, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) issued new consumer price index (CPI) statistics, revealing that annual inflation fell to 6% in February, as expected. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food expenses, increased by 5.5% year on year and by 0.5% month on month.

All eyes are now on the Federal Reserve policy meeting next week. After two 25 basis point (bps) interest rate hikes in 2023, the US central bank has stated that it is contemplating speeding the pace of rate increases to a half-point increase to restrict the US economy's development.

Yet, analysts are divided on how the Fed will proceed with rate rises in the aftermath of the financial crisis and the CPI data that matched forecasts. Some on Wall Street anticipate another 25 basis point rise, while others feel the Fed will not raise interest rates this month.

14-03-2023 09:03:55

The Dollar Gains Ground as US Inflation Data Puts the Fed in a Bind.

The dollar moved higher on Tuesday as traders ignored a relatively good reading of consumer pricing data and attempted to predict whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next week, following the failure of two banks that triggered broad market concern.

The dollar index, which measures the value of the dollar against six other currencies, increased 0.096% as Treasury rates rose a day after the two-year note plummeted the most in a single day since 1987. The euro fell 0.11% to $1.0717, as the dollar rose versus the safe-haven yen and Swiss franc.

Fed funds futures also revealed a shift in sentiment, with the chance of the Fed remaining unchanged at the end of its two-day policy meeting on March 22 decreasing to 13.6%, according to CME's Fed Watch Tool.

Investors are divided on whether the Fed would raise rates again next week in response to the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank, which triggered financial market turbulence. This year's dollar gain has been driven by higher US interest rates than those on foreign government debt.

"The Fed's near-term decisions are more likely to be dictated by financial markets and what the financial system demands, rather than what the inflation mandate requires," said Brian Daingerfield, Nat West Markets' co-head of G-10 FX strategy. "Regardless of the financial circumstances swings that we have witnessed, this number was fairly good," he added of the CPI print.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.4% in February after increasing 0.5% in January. The CPI rose 6.0% in the year to February, less than the 6.4% annualized advance in January but still well below the Fed's 2% objective.

Last month, Americans faced stubbornly increasing housing rents and food prices, providing a quandary for the Fed after banking stocks were crushed by the bankruptcy of the two banks.

"It's pretty evident, especially given the recent volatility in financial markets, that this figure being strong might perhaps lead the Fed to move more aggressively at this meeting, 50 basis points," Daingerfield said.

"However, the expectation has shifted. The market sees this figure as a little more retrograde "said. Futures markets are pricing in a Fed rate drop before the end of the year, with the terminal rate at 4.45% in December, down from more than 5% last week.

14-03-2023 10:03:08

The AUDUSD is Unable to Break Through - Analysis - 14-03-2023

The AUDUSD pair failed to confirm breaking through the 0.6665 level, and it opens today with a bearish bias, implying that the correcting bearish wave has resumed, with 0.6550 being the next negative objective.

As a result, we anticipate negative trades in the next sessions, structured inside the bearish channel seen on the chart and supported by the EMA50, which presses negatively on the price.

On the other hand, we should note that a break of 0.6665 followed by 0.6720 will halt the predicted decrease and cause the price to climb.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.6560 support and 0.6690 resistance

The expected trend for today: Bearish

12-03-2023 08:03:53

Bitcoin's Price Has Risen to $20,000 on the Liquidation of $422 Million in BTC Options

• Bitcoin's price briefly fell below $20,000, and almost $422 million in long and short bets were liquidated.
• BTC fell to a five-week low in response to the week's events, yet whales continued to accumulate Bitcoin.
• According to analysts, numerous Bitcoin whales have purchased call options with a strike price of $25,000 expiring in April.

The bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank caused a drop in the price of bitcoin. Bitcoin has plunged to a five-week low, falling below the psychological threshold of $20,000.

Bitcoin's price has risen beyond $20,000 for the first time

According to Chinese journalist Colin Wu, numerous Bitcoin whales were detected buying $25,000 strike call options for April expiry and selling the same strike call options in the June expiration.

After a five-week low below the psychological milestone of $20,000, Bitcoin has risen above the crucial price level. Throughout the last 24 hours, the incident sparked $422 million in liquidations, with BTC's long holdings accounting for 86.2% of the total.

Baro Virtual, a cryptocurrency analyst at CryptoQuant, examined the Bitcoin price trend and indications and concluded that bears have been in charge since March 2. Despite cool-off moments, bears have consistently driven Bitcoin prices down with distribution.

The expert urged traders to be on the lookout for a domino effect from the now-defunct FTX exchange and the US governmental onslaught on Bitcoin. The growing level of uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market suggests that seller weariness is not far away, and traders should proceed with care.

According to Coinglass statistics, open interest in Bitcoin has dropped roughly 10% in the previous ten days, a considerable reduction since the FTX exchange crash.

12-03-2023 01:03:11

This Week's Focused Pairing (13.03.2023 - 17.03.2023)

EUR/USD:

The EUR/USD has fluctuated throughout the trading week as we continue to challenge the 50-Week EMA. At this moment, it appears like there is a lot of choppiness and hesitation, and I believe that will continue.

If we break below the past few weeks, we might fall below the 1.03 level. After that, the market might look for the parity level, which would get a lot of attention. We might move back and forth in the medium term, but I still favor the downside since Jerome Powell has stated that the Federal Reserve would remain tight for some time.

GBP/USD

The GBP/USD has fluctuated during the trading week, indicating hesitancy, although we did dive somewhat lower over the week. As a result, I believe that if we break below the bottom of the candlestick for the week, we might see a run down to the 1.15 level.

On the upside, the 50-Week EMA enters the picture at the 1.22 level, which I believe might provide some resistance. It appears that we are attempting to rebound, but it is worth remembering that several of the prior weekly candlesticks have formed inverted hammers, so I believe that getting higher from here would be difficult.

USD/JPY

Throughout the trading week, the USD/JPY attempted to climb against the Japanese yen but found it tough to break through the 138 level. That being said, the 138 level was previously resistive, and I believe it indicates that the market will battle hard in that region.

Nonetheless, we have the 50-Week EMA underneath, which is rising and might provide considerable support. The Bank of Japan continues to fight against the yen's value by keeping interest rates low, so I believe it's only a matter of time before the greenback reverses and rises again.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD has been pounded this trading week, and it appears to be on the verge of breaking down severely. As a result, I believe the market will eventually fall below the 0.64 level. The 0.67 level above there is a region that I believe will be tough to surpass, and hence I believe short-term rallies will be met with a lot of selling pressure.

Gold

Gold markets originally declined over the week, but following the Non-Farm Payrolls release, we saw a lot of buying pressure as the US dollar fell somewhat. From a technical sense, it's clear that the market has found significant support at the 50-Week EMA and also near the 50% Fibonacci level. If we can break above the weekly candlestick, we might attempt a move toward the $1900 level, which has historically experienced a lot of selling pressure.

USD/CAD

Over the week, the USD/CAD rose considerably, breaking above the 1.38 mark. We will threaten the 1.40 level if we can break above the region just above the present price. Any break over 1.40 would be extremely powerful for the US dollar, and the Canadian dollar would suffer as a result.

This makes sense given that the Bank of Japan has previously indicated that it is no longer boosting interest rates. Short-term pullbacks are more likely than not going to turn into buying opportunities at this time.

AUD/JPY

The Australian dollar has been crushed against the Japanese yen this week, and it now appears to be in jeopardy. Anything below the 87 levels might be said to initiate a head and shoulders pattern. Sure, it's a convoluted and loud argument, but it's one you can make.

But, if we rise from here, the 92 levels above might act as resistance, thus a short-term gain is more likely to be sold into. If we break over the 92 levels, we might then look at the 96 levels.

USD/CHF

The USD/CHF gave up a large chunk of gain early in the week, falling to the 0.92 level. Having said that, we are approaching a big support level for the US dollar versus the Swiss franc, therefore I would not be shocked if this market bounces for the week. This, I believe, creates a market that is attempting to find some sort of trading range.

11-03-2023 09:03:48

Bitcoin falls 6% as House Committee Holds First Hearing on Split Digital Assets

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and many cryptocurrency-related stocks dropped by 6 to 10% on one of the busiest days in one of the busiest weeks for crypto in the first quarter of 2023.

The day included an editorial article by SEC Chair Gary Gensler, statements on digital asset regulation from the FED's Michael Barr, and, probably most importantly, the inaugural hearing of the Subcommittee on Digital Assets, Financial Technologies, and Inclusion.

The pricing movements of the day were a continuation, albeit in a more dramatic form, of tendencies witnessed since the beginning of the week. Most major digital assets and cryptocurrency-related stocks have been trading slightly down for most of the week, which has seen several significant good and bad developments for the sector.

Bitcoin is hovering just around $20,000 as the end of an active week approaches.

While Bitcoin has been fairly consistent since its January rise, its price has taken a significantly negative trend by Thursday afternoon. Its worth went from almost $21,500 to a little over $20,300 in a couple of hours. A similar pattern could be seen with Ethereum, the world's second-largest cryptocurrency, which was also down roughly 6%.

Many digital asset-related equities have also dropped significantly. MicroStrategy fell more than 9%, Coinbase fell almost 8%, and the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust fell over 11% after a significant victory against the SEC only a few days before. Silvergate, however, suffered the most significant collapse, falling 42% throughout the day's trade.

Yet, Silvergate's latest reduction comes as little surprise given that its parent business announced plans to wind down operations and liquidate the bank on Wednesday afternoon. Moreover, rather than being triggered by the present digital asset crisis, Silvergate's demise is a likely source of the cryptocurrency sector's decidedly gloomy mood.

Notwithstanding the failures, the current week has seen many digital asset coups. A bankruptcy judge recently accepted the acquisition transaction between Binance.US and Voyager Digital, despite regulatory resistance, in addition to Grayscale's victorious day in court.

Additionally, the largest creditor of the long-defunct Mt. Gox indicated that it will not be selling the Bitcoin it is expected to receive, easing some fears about the cryptocurrency's future valuation.

The FED wants more control over stablecoins, and Gensler backs up the SEC's approach.

The Federal Reserve's Michael Barr delivered a speech at the Peterson Institute for International Economics on Thursday. Barr stated that the FED's mandate regarding digital assets is obvious to him and that there is a huge need for robust guardrails that allow for just enough discretion to enable innovation.

Despite praising the potential provided by the blockchain, Barr remained cautious about the value of cryptocurrencies themselves. Furthermore, he restated Chair Powell's position that stablecoins are squarely within the FED's purview.

Later in the day, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler gave his thoughts on digital assets and the Commission's recent initiatives in the area. In his letter, Gensler asserted once more that the law regarding cryptocurrency is quite clear. Additionally, he noted that he considers the notion that there is little certainty for corporations from the sector "unpersuasive".

Gensler also stated that it appears that bitcoin firms are aiming to obtain SEC permission without making the necessary efforts to become compliant. He also stated that, despite claims made by several corporations, the number of digital asset enterprises ready to speak with his organization is limited.

He also emphasized that the Commission had previously brought over 100 lawsuits against corporations in the industry, and later that day, Lee Reiners, one of the witnesses at the day's hearing before Congress, stated that the SEC had won all of them.

The Digital Assets Subcommittee's Hawks and Doves

Thursday, March 9th, may also go down as a watershed moment for digital assets in the United States, as it included the inaugural hearing of the Subcommittee on Digital Assets, Financial Technologies, and Inclusion.

While the day failed to provide a clear path forward, it highlighted that the Subcommittee is comprised equally of digital asset supporters and bitcoin detractors.

The hearing's issues ranged from whether digital assets should be classed as securities or commodities to the potential terrorist danger presented if the cryptocurrency sector is forced to continue its development outside of the United States.

The viewpoints taken by the members and witnesses differed as well. Others, such as Representative Emmer, a vocal supporter of digital assets, have said that the current crackdown is part of the Biden Administration's strategy to curtail financial freedom and push America down a more authoritarian road.

Others, like Congressman Sherman, were strongly dismissive of the whole premise of cryptocurrencies claiming that their name already portrays them as "hidden" money which could only be tempting to "bad actors". Congresswoman Lynch also dismissed the notion that FTX, with all of its deceit, was just "a bad apple," and declared the entire sector to be rotten.

The fact that the United States is lagging far behind other industrialized nations in terms of cryptocurrency legislation was a key source of worry for the digital asset advocated, both among members and witnesses. The fear, as expressed by Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong in a recent opinion article, is that the United States will lose its critical role in the global economy as a result of its inability to properly and swiftly manage digital assets.

Congresswoman Houchin, one of the Subcommittee's supporters, went so far as to argue that the race to properly foster the growth of digital assets is the space race of our time.

10-03-2023 08:03:57

The Dollar Remains Stable as Unstable Markets await for Payroll Data

The dollar index remained stable on Friday, a rare sign of calm in turbulent global markets ahead of critical US payrolls data later in the day, while the yen fell as the Bank of Japan maintained its stimulus levels.

The dollar surged as high as 0.64% versus the yen following the Bank of Japan's decision to keep policy unchanged in Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's final policy meeting before stepping down in April. It was last up 0.5% at 136.79.

While most market participants expected the "no surprises" decision, many consider the days of the BOJ's bond yield curve control (YCC) as numbered, leading some to price in a low probability of a policy adjustment at Kuroda's penultimate policy meeting.

There was also a lot going on in markets worldwide, with European and Asian banking stocks falling a day after U.S. bank shares fell as tech-industry lender SVB Financial Group started a share sale to shore up its balance sheet owing to dwindling deposits from companies fighting for capital.

Some investors were concerned that it might signal deeper stress in the US financial sector, which drove down US and European government bond rates dramatically.

Despite lower US rates, the dollar's safe-haven reputation helped it hold firm, with the dollar index slightly altered at 105.17, while the index's biggest component, the euro, was also unchanged at $1.0587.

"(The developments in the banking sector) and today's U.S. February employment data are generating dangerous cross-currents for FX markets," said Chris Turner, ING's regional head of research for the United Kingdom, Central and Eastern Europe, and the Baltic States.

"The first effect appears to be obvious: the announcement has spurred the deleveraging of open FX holdings. As a result, this year's darlings among the FX investing community, the Mexican peso and the Hungarian forint, have led losses in the EMFX market, with -2.2% and -0.8%, respectively."

"The G10 FX's performance has been more mixed, but it also makes sense. Higher-beta currencies, such as the Canadian dollar and Norwegian krone, have suffered minor losses. The Swiss franc has outperformed the US dollar "Turner continued.

The US dollar reached a five-month high against the Canadian dollar at C$1.386 and the Norwegian crown at 10.75 crowns. The dollar fell 0.57% versus the Swiss franc to 0.927, its lowest level in more than two weeks, after falling 0.92% the day before.

According to Deutsche Bank analysts, "if you think Fed Fund pricing is extremely near to or has already peaked, selling USDCHF is one of the finest expressions in FX."

Sterling rose roughly 0.5% against both the dollar and the euro after Britain's economy was revealed to have risen faster than predicted in January, easing worries of a recession.

EYE PAYROLLS

The emphasis now shifts to the carefully awaited nonfarm payrolls report later on Friday, the next big data point that might provide hints on the Fed's future monetary policy actions. It remains to be seen how the financial sector's instability will affect the Fed.

According to a Reuters poll of experts, nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by 205,000 in February after rising by 517,000 in January.

 According to data released on Thursday, the number of people submitting new applications for unemployment benefits jumped by the most in five months last week. The greenback paused its rapid climb as traders undid some wagers that US interest rates will increase far faster than originally anticipated.

According to CME's Fedwatch tool, futures pricing currently suggests a roughly 52% likelihood that the Fed will raise rates by 50 basis points this month, down from 70% before the data release.

10-03-2023 02:03:48

The AUD USD is Now in a Weak Scenario

AUDUSD has been stuck in a tight range, failing to recover from Tuesday's drop to 0.6579, and this has pushed the pair back into the red zone every week.

The steep shorting occurred following a significant rejection near the falling trendline formed in May 2021, yet an upside reversal is possible as the RSI and stochastic oscillator are now flirting with oversold levels. Nonetheless, as long as the indications remain negative, downward corrections are more likely than positive corrections in future sessions.

The MACD stays in the negative territory, and the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) is likely to cross below the 200-day SMA after falling below the 50-day SMA.

Another negative correction might highlight the major area of 0.6520, which prompted the increase to 0.7157. A break below that level, where the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 0.7660-0.6169 decline is also located, might push the market towards the two August 2021 support trendlines at 0.6460 and 0.6368, respectively. If the latter fails, the selloff might accelerate to 0.6270.

On the plus side, the 0.6630 area has been limiting bullish moves over the last two days. As a result, a rise above that zone might bring the price to the 38.2% Fibonacci level of 0.6740. The 20- and 200-day simple moving averages may act as a ceiling, blocking a move to the 0.6860 level. The next goal might be the 50% Fibonacci level of 0.6914.

Overall, the AUDUSD has not avoided the recent bearish trend, with more losses to 0.6520 expected. Yet, given that the price is now trading toward the oversold territory, an upward correction cannot be ruled out.

10-03-2023 07:03:38

Forex Technical Analysis and Forecast

EUR/USD:

The currency pair recovered from 1.0693 and broke through 1.0572. A consolidation range is now formed beneath this level. The quotations should then break out of the range and continue the downward trend to 1.0450. The objective is regional.

GBP/USD:

The currency pair recovered from 1.2060 and broke through 1.1920. A consolidation range is now formed beneath this level. The quotations should then break out of the range and extend the wave down to 1.1776, from where a structure to 1.1699 may begin to build.

USD/JPY:

The currency pair has reached 137.89 after completing a round of rise. Today's market performance was a decrease to 136.48. A consolidation range is now formed above this level. With a downward escape, a path to 135.70 opens up, from which the wave might continue to 135.25.

USD/CHF:

The currency pair is still consolidating in a range of around 0.9360. With an upward escape, a route to 0.9660 should open up, from which the wave might continue to 0.9870.

AUD/USD:

The currency pair has finished a round of drop down to 0.6570. The market is currently creating a consolidation range above this level. Growth to 0.6644 is not ruled out, followed by a dip to 0.6513. The objective is to keep things local.

Brent:

Crude oil has finished a corrective wave at 81.87. The market is currently creating a consolidation range above this level. A path up to 85.25 should open with an escape uphill. If this level also breaks, the structure may grow to 87.87, from which the wave may go to 89.77. The objective is regional.

XAU/USD:

Gold continues to form a decline structure to 1802.50. Once it reaches this level, a growth connection to 1830.85 may emerge. Then a downward trend to 1774.44 should commence. The objective is regional.

S&P 500:

The stock index has finished a downward swing to 4000.0. The market is currently creating a consolidation range around this level. The following structure of fall to 3917.5 should begin to form, and the wave may even extend to 3788.0.

09-03-2023 07:03:28

The Dollar Remains Stable as Traders await job data

The dollar remained stable on the day, although down from three-month highs set earlier on Wednesday, as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered no significant shocks during his second day of congressional testimony and as investors awaited Friday's employment report.

Powell reinforced his message of greater and perhaps quicker interest rate rises but stressed that the discussion was still ongoing, with a decision based on data due out before the US central bank's policy meeting in two weeks. "Powell hasn't changed much of the dollar's higher trajectory," said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Convera in Washington.

"The market is now just preparing for Friday's payrolls and next week's inflation to see if the Fed is on pace for the larger 50 basis point rate rise later this month." The dollar rose on Tuesday after Powell stated that the Fed will likely need to raise interest rates more than expected in response to strong data and that it is prepared to take larger steps if the "totality" of incoming information indicated that tougher measures were required to control inflation.

As a result, traders revised their rate estimates. Fed funds futures traders now expect a 70% chance of a 50 basis point raises at the Fed's March 21-22 meeting, up from roughly 22% prior to Powell's speech on Tuesday.

The rate is now predicted to peak in September at 5.69%. Investors are waiting for February job data, which is coming on Friday, to confirm that ongoing robust job growth supports higher interest rates.

The dollar has risen after statistics released on February 3 revealed that businesses gained 517,000 jobs in January. Analysts anticipate 203,000 job increases, with earnings rising 0.3% for the month and 4.8% on an annual basis.

According to the ADP National Employment Report released on Wednesday, private employment climbed by 242,000 jobs last month. Additional statistics revealed that job vacancies in the United States declined less than expected in January, while data from the previous month was revised higher.

Consumer price inflation statistics being out on Tuesday will also be critical in determining if the Fed accelerates the pace of rate increases. Prices are predicted to have increased by 0.4% in February.

The dollar index recently stood at 105.63 versus a basket of currencies, having earlier reached 105.88, its highest level since December 1. It has risen from a nine-month low of 100.80 on February 1 but remains significantly below a 20-year high of 114.78 on September 28.

"The dollar had a massive four-month selloff, and I think it still looks corrective in nature, that is, I don't think we're going to revisit the September and October dollar highs,"

The euro remained unchanged at $1.0547. It dropped to $1.0524 earlier in the day and is now trading barely above the year's low of $1.04820 set on January 6. The dollar gained 0.09% to 137.28 yen, having previously reached 137.90, its best level since December 15.

Sterling rose 0.09% to $1.1840 after sliding to $1.1805, its lowest level since Nov. 21. The Australian dollar was up 0.07% at $0.6588 after touching $0.6568 earlier, its lowest level since November 10.

The Canadian dollar sank as the Bank of Canada held its benchmark overnight rate at 4.50%, as predicted, becoming the first major central bank to pause its monetary tightening effort in the face of expected low inflation. The US dollar was recently up 0.34% with the Canadian dollar, trading at $1.3799 Canadian dollars.

08-03-2023 08:03:31

USD/JPY Forex Signal: Bearish Inflection Just Below ¥138

Today’s USD/JPY Signals

Risk 0.75%.

Trades may only be taken before 5 pm Tokyo time Thursday.

Short Trade Ideas

• Sell entry after a negative price action reversal on the H1 timeframe and the next touch of 138.39 or 139.00.
• Set the stop loss one pip above the current swing high.
• Adjust the stop loss to break even if the transaction is 20 pips in profit.
• When the price reaches 50 pips in profit, take 50% of the trade as profit and let the rest of the position run.

Long Trade Ideas

• After a positive price action reversal on the H1 timeframe, there is a long entry on the next touch of 137.39, 137.06, or 136.53.
• Set the stop loss one pip below the current swing low.
• If the transaction is 20 pips in profit, adjust the stop loss to break even.
• When the price reaches 20 pips in profit, take 50% of the trade as profit and let the rest of the position run.

The simplest way to see a typical "price action reversal" is for an hourly candle to finish with a higher close, such as a pin bar, doji, outside, or even simply an engulfing candle. You can profit from these levels or zones by observing the price activity at the specified groups.

USD/JPY Analysis

After the Chair of the Federal Reserve's speech before the US Senate yesterday, the technical and fundamental picture in this pair has grown significantly more positive, leading analysts to forecast a terminal US interest rate of around 6%, a significant upward adjustment. After these remarks, the US Dollar strengthened significantly, with the US Dollar Index breaking over 105 and a confluent strong resistance level to trade at its highest price in more than three months.

The US Dollar gained ground across the board, although it is worth noting that the most significant gains were achieved versus more "risky" currencies such as the British Pound and commodity currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD). The Yen has lost value but has held up better, most likely because rising Fed rates raise the likelihood of a recession and, as a result, contribute to a more general risk-off attitude, which supports the Yen.

We had a big upward advance followed by a negative reversal just below 138. Nonetheless, we continue to observe some short-term price movement that suggests bullishness.

I believe we will see another up day in this currency pair, but I doubt it will be significant. As a result, I believe the greatest trading chances today will be long trades from any bullish reversal we see following a pullback to any of the suggested support levels.

A solid employment report and projection in the United States later today will almost certainly drive the US Dollar further higher, so keep an eye on the data releases during today's New York session.

Traders may discover that being long the US Dollar versus the British Pound or other commodity currencies is more profitable than being long the Japanese Yen.

In terms of the USD, the ADP non-farm employment change prediction will be released at 1:15 pm London time, followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell's hearing before the House of Representatives at 3 pm, when JOLTS job openings data will also be released. There is nothing significant due today in terms of the JPY.

08-03-2023 07:03:31

Forex Market Perceptions in Major Currencies

Another week of US dollar gains coincided with an increase in long holdings for GBP/USD and AUD/USD among our customers. Whilst the USD is not as powerful as it was during the currency's high in 2022, it is approaching similar levels in AUD/USD and USD/CAD in particular. The bulk of our clients appears to be playing the contrarian since they are short the dollar in most key pairings.

Customer Sentiment displays the percentage of our client accounts that have open long or short positions. If the majority of client accounts with open positions in a particular market are long, the price is expected to climb; if the majority is short, the price is expected to fall. (Values taken using our Client Sentiment metric as of the previous day's closing.)

USD/EUR - 57% Long

Last week's situation: 63% Long

Despite the US dollar has risen against the majority of its major rivals in the previous week, the euro has been one of the non-USD bright spots, remaining relatively flat versus the USD but growing against other currencies such as GBP and AUD. Longs fell from 63% to 57% among our clients throughout this period.

USD/GBP - 66% Long 

Last week’s situation: 64% Long

In the great scheme of things, the pound has traded roughly unaltered over the previous week; yet, the pound has lost some ground to the dollar, while the euro and the dollar have pushed closer to extreme levels seen in 2022. Our clients increased their long position in this sinking pair from 64% to 66%.

USD/JPY – 59% Short

Last week’s situation: 63% Short

The yen traded fairly flat in the previous week as Thursday's Bank of Japan meeting looms with its expected announcement on Japanese interest rates. Our customers cut their total short USD/JPY holdings from 63% to 59% in the run-up to this occurrence.

AUD/USD – 77% Long

Last week’s situation: 73% Long

In recent trade, Australian dollars reached year-to-date lows far below 0.66, coinciding with an increase in long holdings among IG customers from 73% to 77%. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by the predicted amount, and considering the reaction in AUD vs USD, EUR, and other currencies, the market may have desired a larger boost.

USD/CAD – 71% Short

Last week’s situation: 73% Short

Likewise, with the Australian currency, Canadian dollars fell significantly versus US dollars. USD/CAD has reached fresh year-to-date highs, trading over 1.37 in recent activity. Even though prices were more severe during the US dollar bull run, short USD/CAD holdings among IG customers decreased somewhat from 73% to 71%.

07-03-2023 08:03:36

The Dollar Rose Ahead of Powell's Speech

The dollar rose against a basket of currencies on Tuesday as investors awaited Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech for hints on whether a recent series of positive data and persistently rising inflation has changed his stance on monetary policy.

Powell will appear before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, before the highly anticipated February employment report on Friday. "The market is frightened, or worried, that Powell would imply a higher path for rates," said Adam Button, chief currency analyst at ForexLive in Toronto.

"I don't expect a clear signal from Powell in any way; the concern is that he'll be speaking so much that every slip of the tongue may be read as a signal by the market."

Investors are pricing in the Fed raising rates for a longer period as employment and other statistics remain good and inflation remains stubbornly high. Powell may be hesitant to signal a fresh hawkish change in the Fed's thinking unless it is obvious that recent economic trends are likely to continue.

"I don't believe the Fed wants to introduce any certainty right now... "I believe today's message will be Powell opening the door to a higher terminal rate without anticipating one," Button said.

Friday's employment report will reveal if January's blockbuster report, in which businesses created a much higher-than-expected 517,000 jobs, was a one-time blip or part of a longer-term trend. "Today's semi-annual testimony will be critical in determining if the US dollar can regain its momentum in the next week," MUFG senior currency analyst Lee Hardman said.

"If (Powell) stays cautious, the dollar index may fall further below 105.00 ahead of the release of the NFP report on Friday," Hardman said. The dollar index was recently up 0.34% versus a basket of currencies, closing at 104.59.

The euro fell by 0.28% to $1.0653. The Australian dollar fell after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lifted its cash rate by 25 basis points to the highest level in more than a decade, as predicted, but hinted it was nearing the end of its tightening cycle. It was last trading at $0.6654, down 1.14%. The US dollar increased by 0.25% to 136.26 Japanese yen.

Investors are anticipating Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's last policy meeting on Thursday and Friday when the central bank is expected to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy. According to data released on Tuesday, Japan's real earnings fell the most in almost nine years in January, as four-decade-high inflation pinched consumers' spending power.

07-03-2023 12:03:28

The Dollar is Falling Ahead of Powell's Appearance

The US dollar remained cautious on Tuesday ahead of testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, while the Australian currency fell after the Reserve Bank of Australia lifted its cash rate by 25 basis points but muted its hawkishness in its statement.

The Australian dollar fell to a more than the two-month low of $0.6690 and was last down 0.33% at $0.6712 after the central bank lifted its cash rate to 3.60%, as predicted. The RBA modified a reference to more rate "increases" to "further tightening," implying that the central bank may be reaching the end of its rate-increase cycle.

"A first reading of the RBA's announcement implies they are reaching the end of the tightening cycle, and potentially one step closer to openly considering a pause," said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index.

Meanwhile, the US dollar index, which compares the greenback to six main competitors, declined 0.077% to 104.170 after falling 0.26% overnight. The index is down 0.6% for the month after rising 2.6% in February.

The euro was up 0.11% to $1.069, extending its overnight gain of over 0.5%. The pound was last trading at $1.2044, up 0.19% on the day, while the New Zealand dollar advanced 0.27% to $0.621. The Japanese yen was fairly unchanged at 135.94 per dollar ahead of Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's last policy meeting on Thursday.

Investors will be focused on Powell's speech before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday, as well as the February employment data, which is expected on Friday.

Powell, according to Kevin Cummins, chief economist at NatWest Markets, would likely indicate increased worry about inflation but will likely stop short of boosting expectations for a 50 basis point rate rise on March 22.

After hefty increases last year, the Fed lifted interest rates by 25 basis points at its most recent two sessions, but robust economic indicators throughout February fueled concerns that the central bank may return to larger moves.

"We anticipate he will seem noncommittal for the time being and take his cues from the impending incoming major data," said Cummins, who predicts the Fed will hike interest rates by 25 basis points.

Fed funds futures traders are putting in a 76% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike at the Fed's March meeting. They also predict that interest rates will peak at 5.48% in September and remain over 5% by the end of the year.

"What has become evident to financial markets is that inflation is proving considerably stickier than most had anticipated at the start of the year," according to ING analysts. "A return to the story of disinflation and a lower currency will have to wait."

06-03-2023 04:03:39

Possible USD/JPY Rising Wedge Break, 135?

The Japanese Yen is looking forward to the next week as significant economic events dominate the schedule (see below) for both the US and Japanese economies. From a US standpoint, investors will be searching for clues about the impending Fed interest rate decision, namely if Fed Chief Jerome Powell hints at a return to a 50bps increase or not. Money markets are currently trapped between the two levels (+/-30bps), and any hawkish speech might see the dollar extend its recent rally versus the yen.

Labor statistics (Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)) are likely to be much lower than the January surprise; but, a weaker-than-expected print may not dramatically affect the long-term forecast because one data point does not form a trend. But, a miss will almost certainly result in a dollar sell-off because USD longs appear to be oversold.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has recently been in the limelight due to the possibility of a change away from its ultra-easy monetary policy. Although the newly elected BoJ Governor has declared that he will stick to Mr. Kuroda's forecast, another change to the range around 0% (now +/-0.5%) tied to Yield Curve Control (YCC) is possible.

The daily USD/JPY market action is on the verge of breaking a probable rising wedge chart pattern (black), which might bring the crucial 135.00 level into view. If the breakout occurs, this level may not hold for long, taking into account future support zones. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) appears to be losing positive momentum and may provide support for a bearish move.

Key resistance levels:

200-day SMA (blue)

Wedge support

Key support levels:

135.00

133.63

06-03-2023 07:03:22

Prediction for Forex Today

The DXY dollar index broke past the 105.00 point level again on Thursday, March 02, but could not hold it. The dollar was supported, as usual, by an increase in US government bond rates.

The yield on 10-year notes increased to 4.09%, its highest since November 10, and the yield on 2-year securities increased to 4.91%, its highest since 2007. The adjustment of US labour market figures in Q4 2022, as well as the ISM Manufacturing Business Activity Index (PMI) in the country's manufacturing sector, boosted the US dollar. The dollar, on the other hand, was under pressure from the yuan, which is strengthening against the backdrop of Chinese macroeconomic data.

China's PMI manufacturing index was the highest since 2012. Service sector activity has also improved, and the Chinese real estate market has steadied.

Yet, the key factor influencing the USD's behaviour is still the prospect of fiuture Fed efforts to combat inflation. Because the Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew more than predicted in January, reaching 6.4%, market investors have begun to speculate that the regulator may boost interest rates by 50 basis points (bp) rather than 25 in March. (At the present, CME's FedWatch tool rates the likelihood of such a move at 23%).

Several FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) members made hawkish statements in support of this prognosis. Rafael Bostic, the Atlanta Fed's president, stated that the main interest rate should eventually be hiked to 5.00-5.25% and held there until 2024.

Minneapolis Fed President Neil Kashkari has yet to decide whether to vote for a 25bp or 50bp rate rise in March, but he has signalled that the Fed's own dot plot may be boosted. At the same time, both leaders emphasised the need of fighting inflation, highlighting that a robust labour market and the US economy can resist the pressures produced by the Central Bank's active monetary policy.

Rafael Bostic, on the other hand, moderated his hawkish tone and stated that the regulator may stop the rate rise cycle in the summer. Following that, the dollar retreated somewhat from its gains.

Some analysts believe that the top Dollar rate will hit 5.5%, if not 6.0%, in September. There is no way it can be reduced at the end of the year. And these predictions favour the US dollar, as verified by the futures market. But, while discussing the EUR/USD, one cannot just focus on the Fed's actions. They don't sleep either on the opposite side of the Ocean.

Inflation statistics from a number of European nations show that the ECB may be obliged to retain its hawkish stance for a longer period of time than originally anticipated. The Chinese economy's openness might put pressure not just on the United States, but also on Europe, making it difficult for both regulators to control inflation. As a result, market investors anticipate additional tightening of monetary policy by the European Central Bank, which is presently keeping the pair at the 1.0600 range.

The previous week's close was 1.0632. At the time of writing (the evening of March 03), the analysts' prognosis appears to be as unclear as the EUR/USD flat quotes: 50% of them have taken a neutral stance, 30% expect the dollar to rise more, and the remaining 20% favour the euro. On D1, 50% of the oscillators are red, 15% are green, and 35% are neutral grey.

Of trend indicators, 35% advise selling and 65% advise purchasing. The pair's closest support is at 1.0575-1.0605, followed by levels and zones 1.5000-1.0530, 1.0440, 1.0375-1.0400, 1.0300, and 1.0220-1.0255. Bulls will face resistance at 1.0680-1.0710, 1.0740-1.0760, 1.0800, 1.0865, 1.0930, 1.0985-1.1030.

05-03-2023 08:03:26

GBP/USD: Weekly Forecast 5th March - 11th March

The week ahead for the GBP/USD will need careful assessment of possible 'traps' in economic data and rhetoric. The GBP/USD pair ended the week around 1.20430 following a bumpy and tense trading session.

A low around the 1.19220 ratios was touched early on Monday and again on Thursday. Nonetheless, a high of around 1.21445 was briefly shown on Tuesday. After finishing the week amid its five-day range, the GBP/USD will undoubtedly cause further anxiety, and it has the potential to undergo a flurry of volatility in the coming days.

Rhetoric from the US Federal Reserve and employment figures are on the way

Speculators should buckle their seatbelts and prepare themselves for whipsaw outcomes in the GBP/USD this week. The GBP/USD range was apprehensive last week, but it maintained its recognized values, and financial houses were likely focused on the risk events that are scheduled for the currency pair in the coming days.

On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak before the United States Senate about monetary policy. His remarks will undoubtedly be scrutinized, and experts will try to gain a better understanding of the Fed's view of the US economy, including inflation, growth, and interest rate policy.

The Fed will almost definitely boost its benchmark lending rate by another 0.25% on March 22nd, but what financial markets are interested in is what will happen following this hike. More rises are expected, although some financial institutions believe the US Fed will turn more dovish in the medium term.

The employment figures for the United States will be released on Friday. The United Kingdom will release Gross Domestic Product figures on the same day, a few hours ahead of the United States Non-Farm Employment Change data.

The combination of US Fed rhetoric and economic data due later this week is certain to generate a whirlwind of volatility in the GBP/USD, and traders must be prepared.

The ability of the GBP/USD to rise over the 1.21400 ratios early last week is intriguing

Undoubtedly, the GBP/USD hit its weekly bottom twice, but it also managed to deliver some significant upward price momentum on Tuesday. The upward movement suggests that certain positive viewpoints persist among financial organizations that are looking long-term. Day traders do not have this advantage when making quick bets, but the idea that sentiment can still cause upward momentum is intriguing.

However, for the GBP/USD to produce a solid upward trajectory that can be sustained, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's dovish comments this week and weaker US job numbers are required. This may not be the case, and traders should be prepared to see support levels challenged again in turbulent conditions. Powell is likely to voice concern about inflation. Also, traders should keep in mind that the US Non-Farm Employment Change data was stronger than projected last month.

GBP/USD Weekly Outlook:

The GBP/USD speculative price range is 1.18775 to 1.21805. Traders should exercise caution this week and ensure that their risk management mechanisms are fully operational. Bullish traders may regard last week's low tests and reversals upward as encouraging, but it might also be a hint that if lows are tested again, they may be pierced this time.

If the GBP/USD goes below 1.20000 early this week and holds at this level heading into Jerome Powell's speech on Tuesday, volatility will be a definite result of the Fed Chairman's words. If the 1.19700 to 1.19500 ratios are challenged, a cascade that targets the 1.19000 ratios may ensue. If this fails, a repeat of the January lows might occur quickly. If US job figures are positive late in the week, the GBP/USD might see wild activity.

To continue positive action in the GBP/USD this week, Fed Chairman Powell will need to sound more dovish. Less forceful remarks from Powell seem improbable, but if he sounds cautious and hints the Fed may reverse its course in the future, the GBP/USD may rise. If US jobless claims fall short of expectations on Friday, the GBP/USD might revisit the 1.21400 level and beyond.

05-03-2023 07:03:46

The Dollar is Dropping for its Biggest Weekly Loss Since Mid-January; Bitcoin is Down

The US dollar fell from a two-and-a-half-month high against the Japanese yen on Friday, on track for its biggest weekly loss since mid-January against a basket of six major currencies, as traders stepped back to gauge the path of Federal Reserve policy.

According to analysts, the market has for the most part priced in the prospect of a higher terminal fed funds rate following the recent run of positive U.S. financial data.

The yen, which is sensitive to long-term rate differentials between the United States and Japan, appeared set to end its six-week losing streak against the greenback, as 10-year US yields fell from a nearly four-month high near 4.1%.

Cryptocurrencies, on the other hand, took a hit as the crisis surrounding Silvergate Financial institution worsened, with business heavyweights like Coinbase International and Galaxy Digital dropping the lender as a banking partner.

The dollar index, which measures the value of the dollar against six major currencies, fell 0.3% to 104.60, from a high of 105.36 at the start of the week, its highest level since Jan. 6.

This week, the index has fallen 0.5%, matching its largest percentage drop since the week of January 15. The dollar briefly recovered after data confirmed that the US services sector expanded at a moderate pace in February, with new orders and employment rising to more than one-year highs.

The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) non-manufacturing index fell to 55.1 in February from 55.2 in January. "The greenback has primarily appreciated four weeks of positive aspects that completely erased the losses in January," said Juan Perez, director of purchasing and selling at Monex USA in Washington.

"As markets prepare to close out a difficult first quarter, optimism may rise as attention shifts away from the pains associated with inflationary pressures and towards the possibility of a prosperous second half of the year regardless of central financial institution tightening via interest rates."

" According to Reuters polled analysts, recent greenback strength is more likely to be temporary, and the foreign money will weaken over the year as the global economic system improves and the Fed stops hiking rates of interest effectively ahead of the European Central Financial institution.

However, the dollar appears unlikely to reverse its recent uptrend, according to Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto. "The following week's job opening and non-farm payrolls studies may generate a carry in yields and the greenback.

Merchants are more likely to trade cautiously, particularly in currencies exposed to more dovish domestic central bank messaging, such as the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, and yen.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to begin dismantling extraordinary stimulus measures after Governor Haruhiko Kuroda retires next month. Tokyo inflation data for February exceeded the BOJ's target for the ninth month in a row, but the core measure slowed from a 42-year high.

The dollar fell 0.4% to 136.26 yen after climbing to 137.10 on Thursday, its highest level since December 20. The dollar fell 0.4% against the yen last week, its worst weekly performance since mid-January.

The euro gained 0.3% to $1.0628 after starting the week at a nearly two-month low of $1.0533. Sterling rose 0.7% against the dollar to $1.2032, on track for a 0.4% gain on the week, its best weekly performance since January.

The pound gained as Britain reached a post-Brexit Northern Ireland commerce agreement with the European Union, and a survey revealed that Britain's services sector grew at the fastest pace in eight months in February. Bitcoin fell 4.9% to $22,306, having hit a two-and-a-half-week low of $22,000. Ether fell 5.4% to $1,559 after reaching a low of $1,543.60 in mid-February.

04-03-2023 07:03:43

Weekly Forex Market Analysis

The weekly forex forecast includes predictions for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/CAD, and USD/JPY. Our weekly forex forecast includes technical analysis, price action on major currency pairs, assets using high-timeframe analysis, and market environment.

Welcome to this week's Weekly Forex Forecast video, in which we use a simple but effective top-down approach to identify market behavior and direction using price action. The key to long-term success in trading forex, gold, silver, and stocks is a simple trading approach with powerful money management rules and simple trading rules combined with the right trading mindset, and psychology. Trading rules and risk management Once we've learned to read price action and market behavior, psychology becomes our best trading advantage.

In this video, we discussed potential great trading ideas for the upcoming forex market - major forex pairs ( EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, USDJPY ). We can see a possible larger move ahead by using the top-down approach and high time-frame analysis.

We used a simple but effective top-down approach to identify market behavior and direction in this forex forecast video. The key to long-term success in forex trading is a simple trading approach with powerful money management rules and simple trading rules combined with the right trading mindset, and psychology. Once we learned to read price action and market behavior, our best trading edge is risk management rules and correct trading psychology.

03-03-2023 07:03:56

EUR/USD Forex Forecast - Strong Business Activity Reveals to the Eurozone Prevent Crisis

On Friday, the euro edged higher against the US dollar after a report showed that Euro Zone business activity picked up last month as growth accelerated in the bloc's dominant services industry, according to a survey, providing the latest piece of evidence that the currency union will avoid a recession.

The S&P Global Composite Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI), regarded as a good indicator of overall economic health, rose to an eight-month high of 52.0 last month, up from 50.3 in January, just shy of a preliminary reading of 52.3.

The EUR/USD is trading at 1.0608 at 12:30 GMT, up 0.0010 or +0.10%. The Invesco CurrencyShares Euro Trust ETF (FXE) closed at $97.79 on Thursday, down $0.59 or -0.60%.

In other news, a 50 basis point increase in the European Central Bank's deposit rate this month is a done deal, according to Reuters polled economists, who expected a 25 basis point increase next quarter to give a terminal rate of 3.25%.

A weaker US dollar is also helping the Euro. It fell as Treasury yields fell following Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic's less hawkish comments on Thursday. He advocated for continuing 25 basis point increases.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis 

According to the daily swing chart, the main trend is down. However, momentum is increasing. A trade through 1.0533 will indicate that the downtrend has resumed. A break of 1.1033 shifts the main trend upward.

The minor trend is positive. This is a form of momentum control. A break of 1.0705 will confirm the trend. A break of 1.0566 will reverse the minor trend.

The Euro is currently trading near a minor pivot point of 1.0613. A long-term 50% level at 1.0661 is the nearest resistance. A main bottom at 1.0483 provides the closest support.

The reaction of traders to the minor pivot at 1.0613 will most likely determine the direction of the EUR/USD on Friday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move above 1.0613 suggests the presence of buyers. If this generates enough upward momentum, expect a surge into 1.0661, followed by 1.0705.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move below 1.0613 indicates the presence of sellers. If this generates enough downside momentum, expect the selling to extend into the minor bottom at 1.0566, then the main bottom at 1.0533.

03-03-2023 03:03:49

The Dollar is Laid to Struggle its Loss in Five Weeks, While Crypto Drops

The US dollar fell from a two-and-a-half-month high versus the yen on Friday, heading for its first weekly loss since January against major peers as traders tried to predict the path of Federal Reserve policy.

The yen, on the other hand, which is particularly sensitive to US-Japanese long-term interest rate differentials, threatened to extend its recent losing streak to seven weeks, even as 10-year US yields fell from a nearly four-month high near 4.1% on Friday.

Cryptocurrencies suffered as the Silvergate crisis worsened, with industry heavyweights such as Coinbase Global and Galaxy Digital dropping the lender as a banking partner.

The dollar index, which compares the greenback to the yen, euro, and four other major currencies, fell 0.24% to 104.71, after reaching a high of 105.36 at the start of the week, its highest level since January 6. The index has fallen 0.5% since last Friday.

Comments from Fed policymakers, including Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, took some steam out of the dollar and the breathless advance in US yields, saying that "slow and steady is going to be the appropriate course of action," despite new labor figures adding to the recent run of strong data.

"Yesterday's Fed speakers - Collins, Waller, and Bostic all seemed content with 25bp hikes for the time being," said Colin Asher, senior economist at Mizuho. "Most noted a potential need to push rates higher if data continued to come in hot - implying data dependence," Asher added.

According to Reuters polled analysts, recent dollar strength is temporary, and the currency will weaken over the year as the global economy improves and the Fed stops hiking interest rates well ahead of the European Central Bank. "A lot of the dollar strength seen in February has probably run its course now," said Michael Brown, TraderX's market analyst.

"I wouldn't be surprised to see some consolidation until (Fed Chair) Powell speaks next week and the jobs report on Friday," Brown added. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to begin dismantling extraordinary stimulus measures after Governor Haruhiko Kuroda retires next month.

For the ninth month in a row, Tokyo inflation data exceeded the BOJ's target, but the core measure slowed from a 42-year high. The dollar fell 0.33% to 136.32 yen after rising to 137.10 overnight, its highest level since December 20. The dollar is just slightly above flat for the week, but any gain would extend its winning streak that began in mid-January.

After recovering from a nearly two-month low of $1.0533 at the start of the week, the euro gained 0.18% to $1.0616. It is up 0.7% since last Friday. Sterling gained 0.34% to $1.1988, putting it on track for a 0.4% weekly gain.

The Australian dollar rose 0.48% to $0.6762, putting it up 0.54% for the week. Bitcoin fell 4.5% to $22,403, having previously touched a two-and-a-half-week low of $22,000. Ether fell 4.7% to $1,570.30 after reaching $1,543.60 for the first time since mid-February.

03-03-2023 07:03:41

Forex Signal for EUR/USD: Supportive Pivot at $1.0636

Today’s EUR/USD Signals

Risk 0.75%.

Trades may only be taken before 5 pm London time today.

Short Trade Idea

• On the next touch of $1.0732, go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe.
• Set the stop loss 1 pip above the current swing high in the area.
• Once the trade has 20 pip profit, move the stop loss to break even.
• When the price reaches a profit of 50 pip, take 50% of the position as profit and let the other 50% ride.

Long Trade Ideas

• Immediately after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe, on the subsequent touch of $1.0636 or $1.0568, go long.
• Put your stop loss one pip below the current swing low for the area.
• Once the trade has 20 pip profit, move the stop loss to break even.
• When the price reaches a 20 pip profit, take 50% of the position as profit and let the other 50% ride.

The best way to spot a classic "price action reversal" is for an hourly candle to close with a higher close, such as a pin bar, doji, outside, or even just an engulfing candle. You can profit from these levels or zones by observing the price action that occurs at the specified levels.

EUR/USD Analysis

In my previous analysis of the EUR/USD currency pair, I predicted that the support at $1.0662 would be the pivotal point of the day - if it broke down convincingly, I predicted that the price would quickly fall to the next support level below it at $1.0602.

This was a fairly good call, as the level was broken and the price reached $1.0602 the next day, but it took several hours and several deep pullbacks for that to happen.

Yesterday, the Euro showed significant strength and advanced against the US dollar for a few hours before falling back. Technically, the price is currently at an interesting point, as it attempts to break below what appears to be pivotal support at $1.0636.

If we get two consecutive lower hourly closes below $1.0636, we can expect a further drop. However, there are two issues with this: first, key Eurozone inflation forecast data is due, which may cause volatility if it differs from the expected annualized rate of 8.3%; second, the US Dollar Index is facing strong resistance and may not be able to rise much further.

For these reasons, I believe the best approach to trading this currency pair today would be a short-term, scalp-style short trade following a breakdown of $1.0636, with the next support level at $1.0568 as the target.

If the price fails to break below $1.0636, we could see another strong upward price movement, but I believe it will fade away quickly, as it did yesterday.

The Eurozone Flash Estimate CPI data for the Eurozone will be released at 10 a.m. London time. There is nothing significant due today in terms of the USD.

02-03-2023 08:03:34

Yen Slightly Declines, Tokyo Core CPI in Focus

The Japanese yen had a quiet week, but on Thursday, USD/JPY started to gain momentum and moved above the 137 level for the first time this year.

Will the Tokyo Core CPI keeps rising?

The inflation indicators for Japan have remained positive. Later today, we'll look at the February Tokyo Core CPI. This important metric has been increasing for eight months running, reaching 4.3% in December, its highest level since May 1981.

Estimated at 5%, the upward trend is anticipated to continue. Given that the government's fuel subsidies went into effect in February and could be reflected in the inflation release, a reading below expectations would not come as a complete surprise.

These inflation rates may be the envy of other developed nations, but in Japan—which had a deflation issue for decades—they are causing grave distress. The Bank of Japan has insisted that inflation is temporary, echoing the Fed and ECB before they gave up and dramatically raised interest rates. There is increasing pressure on the BoJ to modify its ultra-loose policy as inflation rises.

The BoJ is going through a delicate leadership transition as it struggles to control rising inflation. Next month, Kazuo Ueda will succeed Haruhiko Kuroda. At his confirmation hearings, Ueda emphasized continuity and argued that the central bank's current strategy is appropriate.

The markets, however, are not persuaded that Ueda will wait before making any changes to the policy. Bond markets have been harmed by the Bank's yield curve control policy, and if Ueda skips the April meeting, there may be a significant drop in bond prices.

Adding to the drama, there is talk that Kuroda might make a change to the policy at his final policy meeting on March 10 to relieve Ueda of some of the pressure.

USD/JPY Technical

There is resistance at 137.37 and 138.24

135.65 and 134.78 are providing support

02-03-2023 04:03:09

Euro Again Analyses the 50 Day EMA in the EUR/USD Forecast

In the long run, the market will encounter resistance, and sellers will probably come back to the market. The current rally may continue for a brief period.

In trading on Wednesday, the Euro made a significant advance, crossing the 50-Day EMA (Exponential Moving Average). This crucial indicator frequently demonstrates significant dynamic support or resistance. It is extremely bullish that the Euro cut through it.

The 1.07 level just above, which has historically been a crucial area, must still be dealt with by the Euro. In other words, the market is attempting to make a more significant move, but given the amount of market noise, it is unclear whether a move higher can hold.

Sellers Are Returning

• The 1.05 level beneath has recently appeared to act as support, which makes sense given that it is currently regarded as the market's floor, at least in the near term.
• The 1.03 level would be a potential fallout point for the Euro if it were to collapse below the 1.05 level.
• It is crucial to remember that the 1.05 level also holds a lot of interest, not only from a psychological standpoint given the size of the round number but also because the 200-Day EMA is located nearby.

Another important factor is the size of the candlestick, which indicates that there is a lot of bullish pressure present, at least in the near term. However, a closer look at the chart reveals that the 1.08 level might be resistance. As a result, we might move a little higher, but it's unclear whether we have enough momentum to move higher over the long term.

It won't be long before sellers return to the market, all things being equal. In the US, the terminal interest rate is currently well over 5%, while in the EU, it is just over 4%. Therefore, when we begin to show signs of exhaustion following a brief rally, it is very likely that sellers will return to the market, and I will do the same.

The EUR/USD currency pair has increased significantly, but there are still obstacles to be overcome, and the market is experiencing a lot of noise. Both the 1.07 level above and the 1.05 level below should be carefully observed.

In the long run, the market will encounter resistance, and sellers will probably come back to the market. The current rally may continue for a brief period.

02-03-2023 07:03:10

Dollar Falls as Commodity Currencies Increase Due to China Optimism; Euro Gains Due to High Inflation

The firmer commodity currencies that benefited from China's strong manufacturing activity data, as well as gains in the euro after German inflation soared last month and raised rate hike expectations in the eurozone weighed down the U.S. dollar on Wednesday.

China's yuan increased along with the Australian and New Zealand dollars after statistics revealed that manufacturing activity in China expanded at its fastest rate in a decade, exceeding expectations. The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) increased sharply from 50.1 in January to 52.6 last month.

Additionally, China's non-manufacturing activity expanded more quickly in February, and the Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI reading for the previous month was higher than anticipated by the market. Amo Sahota, executive director at FX advisory firm Klarity FX in San Francisco, observed that "the market is responding to some of the other data outside the U.S.

"The outperformance in some commodity currencies today was noteworthy. The market is interpreting the data from the China PMI. That was a very compelling report that depicts China returning with a vengeance "Added he. The euro also performed well, rising 0.8% to $1.066 on the strength of the German inflation report.

There is a sizable option expiry in the euro on Friday at $1.07, according to traders, indicating that the single European currency still has room to rise. German consumer prices increased more than expected and raised expectations for an ECB rate hike after the data showed no sign of a slowdown in persistent cost pressures.

These prices were harmonized to compare with those of other European Union nations. The euro is benefiting from expectations that the ECB will act more strongly in Germany, according to Sahota of Klarity. Two of the largest economies in the eurozone France and Spain, both had rising inflation according to data released on Tuesday.

The dollar index dropped to 104.42 against a basket of currencies, a decrease of 0.5%. After data revealed that U.S. manufacturing activity declined for a fourth consecutive month in February, the dollar further increased its losses. Manufacturing PMI for ISM increased marginally to 47.7 in February from 47.4 in January, marking the first increase in six months.

Manufacturing contraction is indicated by a PMI reading below 50. Following a four-month losing streak, the dollar index gained nearly 3% in February as the market anticipated the Federal Reserve would continue to raise interest rates based on a slew of positive economic data coming out of the United States. Futures pricing has been rising steadily, reaching a peak rate in the fed funds on Wednesday of 5.46%.

Other than that, the dollar was unchanged at 136.20 yen against the Japanese yen after the U.S. currency gained nearly 5% in February, its largest monthly gain since June. The offshore yuan jumped 1.1 to 6.8779 per dollar, set for its largest one-day gain since late November, while the onshore yuan increased to 6.8729 per dollar, the strongest close since February 21.

The Australian dollar increased 0.4% to US$0.6752, reversing the earlier Wednesday declined to a two-month low due to weak domestic economic data, while the New Zealand dollar increased 1% to US$0.6248.

They are frequently used as liquid substitutes for the yuan. After Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey suggested that the central bank may have already reached the end of its rate-rising cycle, the pound fluctuated little throughout the day at $1.2016.

01-03-2023 02:03:26

Forecast for USD/CAD: Dollar Strengthens Against Loonie

The USD/CAD pair appears bullish overall, but there is some turbulence just above that will be challenging to break out of. Data on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Canada for the fourth quarter has been released; it shows no growth and a 0% increase quarter over quarter. This number falls short of the anticipated 2.9% growth, which is attributed primarily to the decline in business investment and inventory buildups.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) is unlikely to increase interest rates further, according to this report, as doing so could weaken the economy's weak growth by raising the cost of borrowing. This GDP data confirms the BoC's earlier declaration that it would halt rate increases during its most recent monetary policy meeting.

The Canadian dollar (CAD) is negatively impacted by this news, and it is anticipated that the USD/CAD currency pair will strengthen even more because the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is still expected to continue its cycle of tightening. There is a rumor circulating in the financial markets that the Fed may raise rates to as high as 6%, according to some pundits.

Technical Outlook for USD/CAD

The USD/CAD increased after the publication of this data, rising to a daily high of 1.3609. The major retraced and settled in the 1.3590s range after the initial reaction to the news, though. The USD/CAD pair appears bullish overall, but there is some turbulence just above that will be challenging to break out of.

If we do, this pair might find itself resuming its climb toward the November high of 1.38. Before all is said and done, however, the oil market might have something to say because the Loonie is greatly influenced by crude oil prices.

One would have to assume that systematic traders may also be bullish at this time since the pair has broken above several moving averages on the way up. The lack of growth in Canada will continue to be a major problem for the Canucks, while the dollar has recently been acting like a wrecking ball against almost everything.

The Great White North's housing problems are hurting the Loonie as well, and since the Bank of Canada doesn't appear likely to raise interest rates any time soon, likely, the CAD will eventually depreciate not just against the dollar but also against other important currencies like the British Pound, Euro, and Franc. Regardless of its trend line, this pair will probably be choppy.

01-03-2023 07:03:22

The Dollar is Soaring, Poised to Report its First Monthly Yield as of September

In choppy trading on Tuesday, the dollar edged up against the major currencies, on track for its first monthly gain since September, as investors remained on edge due to recession fears and expectations that interest rates will remain high for some time to come.

The dollar rose in February in hopes that the Federal Reserve would have to raise interest rates more aggressively and for a longer period than the market had initially anticipated combating inflation.

Recent encouraging data, such as a record-breaking employment report for January, contributed to this rally. The Federal Reserve's target policy rate is expected to peak at 5.4% in September, according to U.S. rate futures, while rate reductions this year are largely discounted.

The target range for the Fed's policy rate is currently between 4.50% and 4.75%. At 3:20 p.m. ET (2020 GMT), the dollar index, which compares the value of the dollar to a basket of other currencies, was up 0.22% at 104.88, on pace for a monthly gain of 2.7%.

Data released on Tuesday, however, indicated that the Fed's rate increases were starting to have the desired impact of bringing down the economy's blazing heat, which slightly weakened the dollar.

According to José Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, "amid the sea of depressing news, U.S. consumer confidence data released this morning was ice cold, favorable for fighting inflation, but at a significant implied cost — declining consumer spending, which represents approximately 70% of the country's GDP."

Consumer confidence in the United States unexpectedly decreased in February, falling to 102.9 from a reading of 106 in January. Reuters polled economists, who predicted that the index would be 108.5.

According to a different report, the S&P CoreLogic Case Shiller national home price index rose 5.8% year over year in December, the slowest annual growth rate for single-family home prices in the United States since the summer of 2020. Additionally, the February results of the Chicago PMI business survey were weaker than predicted.

The consumer price index and February employment figures, both of which could have an impact on the Fed's interest rate policy, are due out on March 10 and 14, respectively.

"The tale of deflation is still unfolding. Although there was a brief pause in January, there was no reversal. We believe some aspects of the dollar's strength are overstated.

Therefore, we are cautiously fading the dollar's strength "said UBS FX strategist Vassili Serebriakov. Before the U.S. data, the dollar on Tuesday reached a high of more than two months against the Japanese yen, rising to 136.93 yen.

At 136.15, the dollar was last down 0.06% to the yen. Japan's policy of maintaining low yields makes the yen vulnerable to changes elsewhere. Kazuo Ueda, the new governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), stated this week that it is too soon to make predictions about the direction of the central bank's policy.

On Tuesday, the BOJ's ultra-loose monetary policy was dismissed by the newly appointed deputy governor, Shinichi Uchida. In comparison to the euro and the pound, the yen also hit two-month lows. In other news, the euro fell 0.25% to $1.0583 against the dollar.

Higher-than-expected French inflation data earlier gave it some support, sending short-dated euro zone yields to their highest level in at least ten years. Sterling, meanwhile, lost some of the gains it had made against the dollar in the previous session, falling 0.09% to $1.2052.

It increased by 1% on Monday after the announcement of the Windsor Framework, a new agreement between the UK and the EU for post-Brexit trading arrangements for Northern Ireland. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said that would open the door for a new chapter in London's relationship with the bloc, which improved the outlook for the UK economy after Brexit.

28-02-2023 08:02:39

GBP/USD and GBP/JPY Soar as Pound Sterling Reacts Positively to NI Protocol

The agreement between Sunak and the EU will be evaluated at home

Even though both Northern Ireland and England are still part of the United Kingdom, Rishi Sunak expressed optimism regarding the specifics of the most recent iteration of the Northern Ireland Protocol.

The new "Windsor Framework" proposed a red lane for goods leaving Northern Ireland and a green lane for goods going to the rest of the EU and Ireland, which would require more thorough inspections. To be approved, the agreed-upon compromise must placate both the DUP and Brexit-supporting Tories.

The pound has appreciated against several G7 currencies as a result of news that the deal is moving forward, which is something that hasn't been said all that often lately. According to the most recent results of the Gfk consumer report, UK citizens' economic pessimism appears to be slightly easing as they anticipate an improvement in their financial situation in the coming months.

NOTED POUND STERLING TECHNICAL LEVELS

At the 23.6% Fib retracement at 1.1950, cable stopped its declines, closing above the psychologically significant 1.2000 level. GBP/USD has maintained its bullish momentum today by trading above the resistance of the descending trendline. The pair might aim for a return to the top side of the multi-month range between 1.2000 and 1.2445 if it closes above the trendline, which would indicate that bullish momentum may follow. Before that, the pair views 1.2000 as support and 1.2300 as the next level of resistance.

GBP/JPY INCREASES ON BOJ DOVISHNESS, NI PROTOCOL OPTIMISM

The yen has given up a lot of the gains it had made as a result of widespread rumors that the Bank of Japan (BoJnewly )'s nominated head, Kazuo Ueda, might implement a policy change. Since that time, the person tipped to succeed Kuroda in April has distanced himself from rumors that the Bank might be moving in a different direction, insisting that low-interest rates and loose monetary policy are still appropriate.

The pair is on track to post a third day of impressive gains (GBP strength, JPY weakness). Prices recently rose off 161.30, a significant level of support in 2022, and the 23.6% Fib of the significant 2020 to 2022 move at 160.80. Bulls will target 166.30 rather than 169.00. Support still exists at 161.30.

28-02-2023 03:02:53

AUD/USD Forex Signal: Testing Support at $0.6719

Today’s AUD/USD Signals:

Risk 0.75%

Trades must be taken before 5 pm Tokyo time Wednesday.

Short Trade Ideas:

• Go short on the next touch of $0.6786 or $0.6847 following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame.
• Set the stop loss one pip over the high of the current swing.
• Once the trade is 20 pip in the green, adjust the stop loss to break even.
• When the price reaches 20 pip profit, remove 50% of the position as profit and let the remaining 50% run.

Long Trade Ideas:

• When the price touches $0.6719, $0.6679, or $0.6624 after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame, you should immediately go long.
• Set the stop loss one pip below the current swing low in the area.
• Once the trade is 20 pip in the green, adjust the stop loss to break even.
• When the price reaches 20 pip profit, remove 50% of the position as profit and let the remaining 50% run.

The best way to spot a classic "price action reversal" is for an hourly candle to close with a higher close than usual, such as a pin bar, doji, outside, or even just an engulfing candle. By observing the price action that takes place at the indicated levels, you can exploit these levels or zones.

AUD/USD Analysis

Based on the crucial support level at $0.6719 in the price chart below, the technical picture today suggests the beginning of the second shoulder of a bullish head and shoulders chart pattern. Although risk sentiment generally discourages a rise in this pair, it made some progress yesterday and may benefit from data releases that are scheduled for later today.

The $0.6719 support level now appears to be crucial. If it holds, the price will probably rise to the neckline at the large quarter-number of $0.6750. If that level is breached, the price should rise further to the following resistance level at $0.6786.

A bearish breakdown below the pivotal support at $0.6719, however, would represent a bearish failure of the bullish head and shoulders chart pattern, and it could uncover many stops and likely send the price plunging, especially if it is accompanied by a renewed risk selloff in the wider market.

This would represent the most exciting trade opportunity. The price will probably keep falling until it reaches at least $0.6679 if we later see two consecutive lower hourly closes below $0.6719.

The release of Australian CPI (inflation) data later in the Sydney session could be crucial, particularly if it turns out to be much lower than the forecasted annualized rate of 8.1%, as such a lower number would probably send the price here lower.

At 3 p.m. London time, CB Consumer Confidence data will be released about the USD. The CPI (inflation) data for the Australian dollar will be released at 12:30 am.

28-02-2023 07:02:33

Forex Today: Sentiment Rust Ahead of More Surprising Indexes

The US Dollar began the week continuing its upward trend from the previous week, but demand for the American currency dwindled before the US market opened as a result of a conflicting report on US durable goods orders. US durable goods orders decreased by 4.5% MoM in January, which was worse than expected but slightly better than the core reading. Contrarily, Pending Home Sales increased by 8.1% in the same month, exceeding forecasts.

Officials of the European Central Bank continued to use hawkish language while reiterating a rate increase of 50 basis points in March. Their US Federal Reserve counterparts increased the bets as well, announcing they would take additional action if inflation did not decrease.

Overall, market participants appeared to be a little more at ease, but inflation and growth worries are still having an impact. The EUR/USD pair reclaimed the 1.0600 level because Wall Street gained ground despite disappointing US economic data for the day. The strength of the stock market put pressure on the dollar.

The Northern Ireland protocol will be changed, as agreed by the UK and the EU. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen jointly announced a new "Windsor framework" on Monday, a decisive step towards putting uncertainty in Northern Ireland to an end. Although the agreement needs to be approved, it has helped the GBP/USD pair, which is currently trading around 1.2050, stay afloat.

AUD/USD tinkered with the 0.6700 mark before bouncing back to close the day essentially unchanged at 0.7635. Tuesday's early retail sales in Australia are approaching. While the USD/JPY pair ended the day with only slight losses near 136.20, the USD/CAD pair has fallen to 1.3580.

After reaching a new 2023 low of $1,806.52 for a troy ounce, gold is currently trading below $1,820. The price of crude oil decreased a little bit; WTI is now trading at $75.65 per barrel.

27-02-2023 09:02:50

As U.S. Rate Expectations Rise, The Dollar is Slowly Rising a Seven Week High.

On Monday, the dollar fluctuated close to a seven-week high as investors weighed last week's strong economic data and quickly revised their predictions of when interest rates will peak.

Data released on Friday revealed that while inflation increased, American consumer spending sharply recovered in January.

By the summer, traders anticipate the Fed to raise interest rates to about 5.4%, as indicated by the pricing of futures markers. Beginning in February, they projected rates to rise to a maximum of just 4.9%.

On Monday, the euro declined to $1.053, its lowest level against the dollar since January 6, as the dollar strengthened. After some recovery, it last increased by 0.1% to $1.055.

The dollar index, which compares it to six important peers, was last trading at 105.11, down less than 0.1% from its previous high of 105.36.

The index is on pace to end a four-month losing streak with a 3% gain for February. A currency usually gains strength when higher interest rates are anticipated because fixed-income investments in that nation appear more appealing.

Ulrich Leuchtmann, head of FX research at Commerzbank, noted that while headline interest rates are declining, the trend of rising core inflation rates has remained constant.

"The fear of inflation that is currently affecting the market will ease only once we notice a reversal in this data,"

According to data released on Friday, the core measure of personal consumption expenditures inflation in the United States—which excludes volatile food and energy prices—rose to 4.7% from 4.6% in December.

The dollar's position against the Japanese yen was last stable at 136.3 yen, giving back some of the gains it had made earlier in the session when it reached a more than two-month high of 136.58.

Kazuo Ueda, the incoming governor of the Bank of Japan, stated on Monday that the benefits of the bank's current monetary policy outweigh the drawbacks and emphasized the necessity of continuing to support the Japanese economy with extremely low-interest rates.

In addition, after falling for three straight sessions, the pound was unchanged at $1.1946. This week, investors will learn more about the state of the global economy as the preliminary February CPI inflation figures for the eurozone and the U.S. ISM manufacturing survey data are both due on Wednesday.

In January, core consumer price inflation in the eurozone reached a new high of 5.3% year over year. The market is unsure of the rate at which the Fed will raise interest rates, according to Moh Siong Sim, currency strategist at the Bank of Singapore, who added, "We're in a bit of a nervous environment."

"Can the Fed continue its 25 basis point increase? Or will they be compelled to pick up the pace again? I believe that these are the issues that the market is currently facing "said Sim. The Australian dollar was down 0.08% at $0.672, having earlier in the session dropped below $0.67 to its lowest level since early January.

27-02-2023 07:02:49

USD/JPY Technical Analysis - A Favorable Rate Hike Differential Highlights 139.586

The USD/JPY is supported by rising Fed rate hike expectations and a dovish outlook for Japanese Yen interest rates.

The dollar/yen rose on Friday, fueled by stronger-than-expected US inflation data and consumer spending. Meanwhile, in Japan, the incoming governor of the Bank of Japan made dovish remarks that weakened the Japanese Yen.

The USD/JPY pair closed at 136.495 on Friday, up 1.813 points or +1.35%. The Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese yen Trust ETF (FXY) finished the day at $68.30, down $0.89 or -1.29%.

In the US, Inflation is High and Spending is High

The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the core personal consumption expenditures price index, rose 0.6% in January and 4.7% year on year, exceeding economists' expectations. In January, consumer spending increased by 1.8%. The reports raised concerns that the Fed may have to keep interest rates higher for longer to combat inflationary pressures.

Treasury yields soared as a result of the news, making the US dollar a more appealing asset than the Japanese yen, which is under pressure from ultra-low domestic interest rates.

Incoming BOJ Chief says low-interest rates are still appropriate - for the time being

While the market expects the Fed to keep raising interest rates until at least July, incoming BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Friday that the central bank must maintain ultra-low rates to support the country's fragile economy, warning of the dangers of responding to cost-driven inflation with monetary tightening.

Short-Term Outlook

The fundamentals are bearish, but the charts show that there is plenty of room for the upside as long as the Fed raises rates and the BOJ keeps rates ultra-low.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis Daily

According to the daily swing chart, the main trend is upward. A trade through 129.814 will reverse the main trend. A retracement zone at 133.992 to 132.700 is the nearest support. The most common range is 151.945 to 127.227. The primary upside target is the retracement zone from 139.586 to 142.503.

USD/JPY Technical Forecast for Today

The reaction of traders to 136.495 will most likely determine the direction of the USD/JPY early Monday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move above 136.495 suggests the presence of buyers. If this generates enough upward momentum, expect a surge into the main top at 138.173. Taking out this level will reaffirm the uptrend, propelling it to the retracement zone of 139.586 to 142.503.

Bearish Scenario

A sustained move below 136.495 indicates the presence of sellers. If this generates enough downside momentum, the selling may extend into the short-term Fibonacci level of 133.992, followed by the short-term 50% level of 132.700.

26-02-2023 02:02:13

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast Upcoming Weeks

EUR/USD: The Dollar is Strengthened by the FOMC Procedure

There are conflicting macroeconomic figures for the US and the Eurozone. Although inflation is declining in both regions, GDP growth is also declining, which is a good sign (which is bad for the economy). The US Department of Commerce reports that consumer expenditure growth in the nation was +1.4% in Q4 compared to +2.3% in Q3 (expected at +2.1%). According to early projections, the US GDP growth rate on an annual basis will be +2.7% (forecast and prior number +2.9%), which is less than anticipated. Yet, the employment market figures appear sufficient.

Initial unemployment benefit claims, which were expected to total 200K, instead fell by 195K to 192K. Inflation in the Eurozone decreased to +8.6% YoY in January from +9.2% a month earlier, according to official figures from Eurostat. The key engine of the European economy, Germany, is facing increasing difficulties. The annual inflation rate was 9.2% in January as opposed to 9.6% in December, but the country's GDP also decreased, falling by -0.4% (as predicted and from the prior estimate of -0.2%). The very recent February CPI figures, which showed an increase from +8.1% to +8.7%, did not impress either.

In light of this, the US dollar continues to enjoy the favorable market sentiment. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, which were released on February 22 by the US Federal Reserve, are mostly to blame for this. There were no shocks in the minutes. Participants in the market, however, were once more able to observe that the regulator will continue to fight against inflation.

The following is a summary of the key findings from the minutes provided by United Overseas Bank (UOB): 1) Notwithstanding achievements in the fight against inflation, the rate is still far higher than the desired level of 2%. 2) All Committee members concurred that maintaining high-interest rates until the Fed is sure that inflation is declining persistently will be necessary to meet inflation targets. 3) When the FOMC decided to raise the rate by 25 basis points (bps) in February, several members wanted it to rise by 50 bps. 4) The Fed is still more worried about inflation than it is about the slowing of the economy.

Janet Yellen, the US Treasury Secretary, endorsed these findings. At the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting on Friday, February 24, she said, "Core inflation is still above 2%, but inflation is falling, measured on a 12-month basis." Janet Yellen asserts that the robust labor market and robust US balances make a "soft landing" for the economy without a recession feasible.

Due to everything mentioned above, the US dollar index, DXY, has been rising and reached a local high of 105.26 points. However, the EUR/USD pair finished the workweek at the level of 1.0546. (week low at 1.0535).

Speculations regarding the regulator's willingness to take its "crusade" against inflation to an extreme level are most likely what will have the biggest impact on the dollar's movement up until the next FOMC meeting on March 21–22. The rate may increase by 25 bps in March and May to reach 5.25% and then stay there through the end of the year, according to UOB's projection. Some predictions place the top federal funds rate for July at 5.38%.

The largest banking organization in the Netherlands, ING, has experts who claim that February and March are traditionally strong months for the dollar. They also claim that the rate of 4.50% for overnight deposits may still provide a small amount of support for the dollar. Yet, it will become harder for the American currency to strengthen versus the euro, according to their Commerzbank colleagues. There are no significant new drivers in sight, and many things have already been priced in. Particularly given that the ECB is continuing to tighten its monetary policy. The following impetus for such QT will be the final statistics on consumer prices in the Eurozone, which were revised upward to 5.3% in the core index and released on February 23.

At the time of writing this analysis (February 24 evening), 40% of analysts anticipate additional dollar gains (down from a week earlier), 50% anticipate a correction of the EUR/USD to the north, and the remaining 10% have adopted a neutral stance.

Even if 25% of the D1 oscillators are signaling that the pair is oversold, all 100% of them are painted red. 75% of trend indicators advise selling and 25% advise purchasing. The area between 1.5000 and 1.0525 is where the pair's nearest support lies. Following those levels and zones are 1.0440, 1.0370-1.0400, 1.0300, and 1.0220-1.0255. Bulls will run into resistance in the area between 1.0560 and 1.0575, 1.0680 and 1.0710, 1.0745 and 1.760, 1.0800, and 1.0865.

The US's capital goods and durable goods orders statistics will be released on Monday, February 27, among other things. A significant amount of macro information from Germany will be released on Wednesday, the first day of March. This contains the change in the nation's unemployment rate as well as the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector and the Harmonized Consumer Prices Index (CPI). On this day, the PMI score for the US manufacturing sector will also be revealed. On Thursday, March 2, we anticipate the Eurozone's February CPI, the ECB's monetary policy statement, and information on American unemployment. And at the very end of the workweek, there will be more American figures, including the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the service sector.

GBP/USD: While business activity increases, the pound depreciates

The British pound is finding it difficult to fend off the dollar's rise. It continues to launch counterattacks, but it is gradually withdrawing. GBP/USD began the week at 1.2040, rose to a regional high of 1.2147, then fell and finished the five days at 1.1942.

Recession at the end of 2022 was avoided by the UK economy, and the statistics for business activity in the UK released on Tuesday, February 21, are rather upbeat. With a forecast of 49.0, the Composite PMI Index should increase by 48.5 to 53.0 points in one month. However, these are merely provisional information; on March 1 and 3, the definitive data will be made accessible. In contrast to the financial crisis, the COVID-19 epidemic, and the recessions of the 1980s and 1990s, British consumers' confidence is currently lower.

Even though it is declining, the country's inflation rate is still double digits and five times greater than the Bank of England's target rate. (With a projection for +10.3% in January and +10.5% in December, the CPI decreased to +10.1%.) The labor market helps to keep inflation high, and there are currently no indications that wage growth in the UK is slowing down.

The market anticipates that, like the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England would increase its benchmark interest rate twice, by 25 basis points, in March and April, bringing it to a maximum of 4.5%. But, a big rate increase could unnecessarily impede the economy, according to many in the BoE leadership. As a result, the regulator's already murky monetary policy could change at any time.

In terms of the experts' median projection, 45% of them favor additional pound depreciation, 25% anticipate rising GBP/USD, and 30% would rather not make any forecasts. The balance of power among the trend indicators on D1 is 85% to 15% in favor of the red. The red oscillator has a 100% advantage over the other oscillators, 15% of which are in the oversold region. The pair's support zones and levels are 1.1915-1.1990, 1.1840, 1.18,800, and 1.16,600. The levels of 1.1960, 1.1990-1.2025, 1.2075-1.2085, 1.2145, 1.2185-1.2210, 1.2270, 1.2335, 1.2390-1.2400, 1.2430-1.2450, 1.2510, 1.2575-1.2610, 1.2700, 1.2750, and 1.2940 will act as resistance for the pair if it advances north.

We can take note of the speech by Andrew Bailey, the Governor of the Bank of England, set for March 1st, in addition to the final statistics on business activity (PMI) in the UK, which will be released on March 1 and 3.

USD/JPY: QT Hopes Weakening, but Still Exist

In our previous analysis, we stated that "it appears that the selection of scholar Kadsuo Wada as the new head of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has not boosted the Japanese currency." Now that we've had a look at the USD/JPY chart, we can only validate this assertion. In addition to the dollar's rise, Kadsuo Wada himself delivered the yen yet another setback.

His statement on Friday, February 24, enabled the two to increase their height from 134.04 to 136.41. The future president of the central bank's remarks in the lower house of the Japanese parliament generally mirrored the BoJ's present monetary policy, which only served to deepen the disappointment of those who had anticipated big alterations. The hawkish signal that would have boosted the restart of speculative demand for the yen, which was already weakening in the face of the rise of the DXY and the rise in the yield on 10-year treasuries, was not discernible to investors in these statements.

It should be emphasized that US Treasury Bills and the USD/JPY have a direct relationship. The dollar appreciates versus the Japanese yen if the yield on securities increases.

Several analysts predict that the value of the Japanese yen would rise significantly in the future, as we already mentioned in a week-old article. For instance, according to economists at Danske Bank, the USD/JPY exchange rate will decline and reach 125.00 in three months. Strategists at BNP Paribas Research are in a comparable position. They predict that if monetary policy tightens, favorable yields in Japan could encourage local investors to bring money home, causing the USD/JPY to drop to 121.00 by the end of 2023.

Even if 75% of analysts agree with them, all of these hypotheses are still rather weak. Regarding the near-term outlook, only 35% of experts now predict that the pair will move downwards, while a similar percentage anticipate a move in the other direction and 20% are undecided. In the D1 chart, all oscillators (of which 15% are in the overbought zone) show a northward movement. 25% of the trend indicators point south, while 75% of them point north. The zone at 135.90 is where the closest support level is, and the levels and zones that follow it are 134.90-135.15, 134.40, 134.00, 133.60, 132.80-133.20, 131.85-132.00, 131.25, 130.50, and 129.70-130.00. At 136.70, 136.00, 137.50, 139.00-139.35, 140.60, and 143.75 are resistance levels and zones.

Next week, no significant macroeconomic data on the status of the Japanese economy is anticipated. On the other hand, Kadsuo Wada will deliver a further lecture on February 27; nevertheless, it is unlikely to include anything novel or innovative.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Under pressure, Bitcoin perseveres. still not

In light of the previous week, we can state that although bitcoin is under pressure, it is holding up. The Coinbase exchange's Q4 2022 financial report and the dollar's rise are two of the primary pressure points.

In the last quarter of last year, which was unusually difficult for the cryptocurrency market, Coinbase's revenue dropped by 75%. The reason for such a collapse is obvious: customer outflows as a result of a series of scandals and bankruptcies involving major and minor industry players. Coinbase's losses amounted to $2.46 per share as a result. (By comparison, this crypto giant's profit per share was $3.32 a year ago). It is unknown whether Coinbase will explode in the same way that FTX did. However, investors should not overlook the risks associated with this market.

Plan B, a well-known analyst, also predicts a rally, estimating that bitcoin will test the $42,000 level in March. BTC/USD is currently trading around $23,100 at the time of writing (Friday evening, February 24). The crypto market's total market capitalization is $1.059 trillion ($1.106 trillion a week ago). Over the week, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell from 61 to 53 points, moving from the Greed to the Neutral zone.

26-02-2023 07:02:58

Ten Forecasts of Shiba Inu in 2023

Shiba Inu's predictions for 2023 are questionable, given the cryptocurrency industry is notorious for its volatility and value changes.

Shiba Inu is a cryptocurrency based on the Ethereum blockchain that was released in August 2020. It is a meme-inspired cryptocurrency that began as a fun experiment but has now acquired widespread notice and appeal in the cryptocurrency world. In light of its popularity, this article has compiled a list of 10 Shiba Inu predictions for 2023.

1. Shiba Inu will remain a popular meme coin in 2023, with its community and social media presence rising.

2. The price of Shiba Inu in 2023 may be volatile, but it is expected to move upward in the long run.

3. ShibaSwap, the Shiba Inu ecosystem-based decentralized exchange, will continue to develop and offer new services, drawing more users.

4. According to analysts, the Shiba Inu development team will continue to work on strengthening the network's security and scalability, as well as increasing its use cases.

5. Shiba Inu may collaborate with other cryptocurrency projects or businesses to broaden its ecosystem and attract more consumers.

6. Shiba Inu may provide new tokenomics or governance features, giving the community a bigger influence on the project's destiny.

7. Shiba Inu may face growing competition from other meme coins and established cryptocurrencies such as Dogecoin.

8. The Shiba Inu community will remain active and involved, with members organizing events, generating material, and increasing project awareness.

9. Shiba Inu may become more popular as a payment or gift method, particularly in the gaming or entertainment sectors.

10. As the entire cryptocurrency industry matures, demand for meme currencies such as Shiba Inu may decline, resulting in market consolidation and a concentration on more established projects.

Shiba Inu's tokenomics, which includes a total supply of 1 quadrillion tokens, is one of its distinguishing qualities. While this may appear to be a big quantity, the Shiba Inu team has incorporated methods to assist avoid inflation and preserve the cryptocurrency's long-term worth.

Shiba Inu has acquired substantial attention and popularity despite being a very young and unproven initiative, thanks in part to its link with Dogecoin, another meme-inspired cryptocurrency. It remains to be seen how Shiba Inu will do in the turbulent and competitive cryptocurrency market, but its active community and increasing ecosystem indicate that it might remain a significant player in the industry.

They also incorporated a novel function known as "burning," which entails destroying a percentage of the tokens in circulation to increase their value over time.

While Shiba Inu began as a relatively unknown coin, it grew in popularity in 2021 as interest in meme-based cryptocurrencies grew. Shiba Inu, like all cryptocurrencies, is volatile, and its value can move fast. Before investing in Shiba Inu or any other cryptocurrency, like with any other investment, do your research and understand the dangers involved.

25-02-2023 08:02:18

The US Dollar Has Hit a Seven Week High on High Inflation Data

On Friday, the dollar reached a seven-week high as another set of data showing continued strong inflation bolstered predictions that interest rates will remain high for longer. Hotter-than-expected data has helped the dollar appreciate versus several of its major counterparts this week, bringing the dollar index to a seven-week high of 105.20 and putting it on course for its highest weekly gain since late September.

The euro was also on track to suffer its worst weekly loss versus the US dollar since late September. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which the Federal Reserve uses to determine monetary policy, jumped 0.6% last month after rising 0.2% in December.

The PCE price index increased 5.4% in the year to January, following a 5.3% increase in December. According to the Commerce Department, consumer spending increased by 1.8% last month, accounting for more than two-thirds of all economic activity in the United States. The December statistics were revised upward to reflect that expenditure fell 0.1% rather than decreasing 0.2% as previously reported.

Moreover, sales of new single-family houses in the United States climbed 7.2% in January, the highest level since March 2022. The December sales rate was revised up to 625,000 units from 616,000 before. "Positive statistics from the United States flipped the market in February.

Rates and stocks have fallen as a result of good news, while the US dollar has risen. In a market that was expecting an early Fed pivot, the US economy appears to be re-accelerating, compelling the Fed to raise further "Athanasios Vamvakidis, global head of G10 FX strategy at Bank of America in London, confirmed this.

"Unemployment is historically low in all G10 economies and has yet to rise in any of them amid monetary policy tightening," Vamvakidis remarked. "When both good and bad news is terrible news, the market's reality check will be complete, which should be the situation when inflation is high and sticky and the Fed is dedicated to driving it down.

" Fed funds futures traders now expect the Fed funds rate to peak at 5.395% in September and to remain over 5% for the rest of the year, compared to the current target range of 4.5-4.75%. Markets have also factored in rate increases over the following three sessions. The dollar reached a two-month high against the yen and was last up 1.3% at 136.41 yen.

Following the release of the statistics, the US dollar surged to its highest level in seven weeks against the Swiss franc. The dollar was last worth 0.9406 francs, up 0.7%. The euro was recently down 0.39% versus the dollar, trading at $1.0549 after hitting a seven-week low of $1.0536 earlier in the session.

The Sterling fell 0.60% versus the US dollar to $1.1951. According to Amo Sahota, director of Klarity FX in San Francisco, while the dollar is on a nice run as a result of the PCE data, it is unlikely to be racing too far ahead of the pack as it was previously. "I still believe that the yield spread advantage in many of those emerging economies makes it more appealing.

That is why the Mexican peso has outperformed. Some of that, I believe, will remain. I don't think we'll jump right into the exodus and push into the US currency at the same rate we did last year "Sahota stated.

25-02-2023 06:02:53

Americas Forex News Roundup: Dollar Near Year Highs as PCE Inflation Soars

Friday's PCE inflation data did nothing to alleviate concerns about increasing prices, as all of the report's primary statistics ran hot except for income. The market reaction was similar to what we've seen recently: the US dollar gain.

The Market Trends:

• S&P 500 is down 44 points to 3975
• US 10-year yields are up 6.6 bps to 3.95%
• WTI crude oil is up $1.19 to $76.58
• Gold is down $11 to $1811
• USD leads, JPY lags

The data helped the dollar break past several resistance levels, allowing it to reach year highs on most fronts (with GBP as a notable exception). The AUD/USD broke through the 200-day moving average and plummeted to 0.6726, close to the day's lows and the lowest level since early January.

USD/JPY has continued to strengthen and has about closed the December gap left by the BOJ surprise. It's worth noting that, despite the stock market's meltdown, the yen was the weakest performer today. That suggests the market is pricing in stronger global growth and higher rates everywhere. That's a subject to keep an eye on when the calendar turns.

EUR/USD declined for the fourth day in a row, closing down on the early-January low of 1.0479. The dollar is benefiting from the speculation of increased Fed interest rates. The futures market predicted 5.41%, implying a good possibility of 5.50-5.75% this year, while US 2s touched 4.81%, the highest closing since 2007 and an intriguing risk-free parking space for the next two years.

The dollar didn't completely lose, though, as USD/CAD slipped 60 pips from its highs as oil prices rose to close the week unaltered. We've reached the moment where commodities and other growth-sensitive assets must decide whether to rejoice in a brighter near-term outlook or fear increased central bank rates and a likely recession in 2024.

24-02-2023 07:02:31

The NA Session Begins, the USD is the Strongest and the NZD is the Weakest

When the NA session begins, the USD is the strongest and the AUD is the weakest. The greenback is heading higher, aided by worse German GDP data announced today and hints that the US economy is not weakening enough to prevent the Fed from tightening further. Technically, the GBPUSD fell below a crucial swing low of 1.19867. (and is moving away from the 1.2000 natural support level).

After failing to break below its 200-day moving averages in the previous two trading days, the AUDUSD is hoping that the third time would be the charm. The 200-day moving average is at 0.68015. The price is presently trading at 0.67565, with the 100-day moving average at 0.67214 as the objective.

Crude oil is up 0.92% as traders react to increased stocks, Russian supply measures, and other macroeconomic worries. US stock indexes are indicating a weaker open in premarket trade ahead of today's critical core PCE data.

Personal income and expenditure data will also be presented, but the emphasis will be on the preferred Fed inflation measure. The forecast is for 0.4% MoM and 4.3% YoY (down from 4.4%). At 10 a.m., the University of Michigan sentiment will be announced along with new home sales. Several Fed officials, including Governors Jefferson and Waller, as well as Fed Presidents Mester and Collins, are slated to appear.

The marketplace's Trends:

• Gold is currently trading at $1816.10, down $-6.02 or -0.30%.
  
• Spot silver is down $0.24, or 1.12%.
• WTI crude oil is selling at $76.01 a barrel, up $0.60 from $21.05.
• Natural gas is now trading at $2.46 a gallon. As a consequence of colder, snowier weather in the United States this week, the price has risen from the previous week's low of $1.96
• Bitcoin traded for $23,880. It hasn't altered much since yesterday.

After yesterday's surge upward, US futures are predicting a weaker opening in the US. Yesterday, the S&P 500 ended a four-day losing skid.

• The Dow Industrial Average is down -210 points after rising 108.82 points the day before.
• The S&P 500 is down -28 points after rising 21.27 points yesterday.
• The Nasdaq is down -113 points after rising 83.33 points yesterday

In the European stock markets the major indices are mixed

• German DAX is down -0.67%
• France's CAC is down -0.52%
• UK's FTSE 100 is up at 0.13%
• Spain's Ibex is up 0.14%

In the Asian Pacific market today, the major indices were mixed:

• Japan’s Nikkei 225 markets up 1.29%
• China’s Shanghai Composite -0.11%
• Hong Kong’s Hang Seng -1.68%
• Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 -0.62%

In the US debt market, the yields are marginally higher after declines yesterday:

• 2-year yield 4.734%, +4.2 basis points
• 5-year yield 4.151% +4.7 basis points
• 10 year 3.915% +3.5 basis points
• 30-year 3.909% +3.2 basis points

24-02-2023 07:02:39

EUR/USD Forex Signal: Sell-Off Increases

• Sell the EUR-USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.0500.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.0656.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.
• Bullish view
• Set a buy-stop at 1.0627 and a take-profit at 1.0690.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.0500.

The EUR/USD fell further as the Fed minutes underscored Wall Street's concerns about the path of interest rate hikes. It fell to 1.060, its lowest level since January 6 of this year, as the US dollar index resumed its comeback. The Fed's minutes indicate that more rises are on the way.

The EUR/USD fell to its lowest level in more than a month after the Fed released meeting minutes. According to the minutes, all members of the committee agreed with the modest raise made by the bank.

At the same time, they all agreed that additional raises were needed to combat inflation, which is a thorn in the Fed's side. According to the minutes:

"Participants observed that a tight policy stance would need to be maintained until incoming data provided confidence that inflation was on a sustained downward path to 2%, which would most likely take some time."

The hawkish tone in the minutes is striking given that the meeting took place before the US released good statistics. According to these figures, the country's unemployment rate fell to 3.4%, while inflation fell slightly to 6.4%.

On Thursday, there will be numerous key economic reports. Eurostat will provide the final reading of January's inflation figures. Analysts anticipate that the headline CPI will rise from 8.5% to 8.6% throughout the month, based on preliminary estimates. The core CPI is predicted to be steady at 5.2%. The ECB, like the Fed, is mulling larger rate rises.

The EUR/USD will also be affected by the imminent US GDP figures. In most circumstances, the second estimate of the GDP figure has little influence on the pair because the difference from the first is typically not that large. Analysts anticipate that the economy increased by 2.9% in Q4. Forecast for the EUR/USD

In recent days, the EUR/USD pair has been strongly negative. The sell-off escalated following the release of the FOMC minutes. When it fell, it fell below the critical support level of 1.0615, its lowest position since February 17. It also fell below a crucial support level of 1.0656. (Feb 10 low). In addition, the pair fell below the 50-period moving average and the Ichimoku cloud.

As a result, the prognosis is bearish, with 1.0500 as the next reference level to monitor. This trade's stop-loss will be set at 1.0650.

23-02-2023 07:02:22

The Dollar Index Has Reached a 7 Week High Due to Higher For Longer US Interest Rates

On Thursday, the dollar index surged to its highest level in over seven weeks, a day after minutes from the Federal Reserve's most recent policy meeting reinforced, but did not add to, investors' belief that the central bank will hike interest rates further.

The index, which compares the US dollar to six major currencies, reached 104.68, its highest level since Jan. 6, in late morning Europe, before trading just below that level throughout the day.

The euro, the index's largest component, briefly reached $1.0586, its lowest since early January, mainly unmoved by eurozone inflation data, which came in a tad higher in January than previously projected, suggesting that price rise has already passed its peak.

But, underlying pricing pressures show little signs of abating. The dollar was trading at 134.94 Japanese yen, barely below its two-month high of 135.2 sets on Tuesday.

The dollar index rose 0.36% on Wednesday after minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on January 31-February 1 revealed that nearly all policymakers preferred a slower pace of interest rate hikes, but they also stated that containing unacceptably high inflation would be the "key factor" in determining how much further rates need to rise.

The effect of the minutes was significantly diminished because the meeting came before several indicators reported in February, most notably jobs data, that showed the US economy is functioning well, giving the Fed more leeway to hike rates to reduce inflation.

Traders of futures contracts linked to the Federal Reserve's policy rate were overwhelmingly convinced that the central bank will continue to raise rates by a quarter point at its next three meetings.

Because of the recent increase in these expectations, the dollar index has steadily risen from a low of 100.8 in early February. But, it is still significantly below its 20-year high of 114.78, set last October at a period of concern about the global economy and when the Federal Reserve was hiking rates more quickly than other central banks around the world.

"I believe that following the 'popping' of the dollar bubble, we're in a new phase for the dollar that we call the 'chop,' where the market reassesses some of the reasons why it was so negative on the dollar - there was complacency about the Fed and the market was pricing in too many cuts for this year - which is now being washed out," said Paul Mackel, global head of FX research at HSBC.

"But, once that is complete, and we see further indicators that the global economy is improving, we'll enter the following stage for the wider dollar: the flip."

Sterling was a tad lower at $1.2029 per dollar, the Swiss franc was a tad lower at 0.9318 per dollar, and the Australian dollar was a rare gainer in the G10 pack, up 0.4% to $0.6833 after falling to a near seven-week bottom of $0.6795 on Wednesday.

According to Simon Harvey, head of FX analysis at Monex Europe, the uncommon respite in volatility underscores markets' confidence in current central bank policy expectations.

"As a result, the rates dynamic is temporarily taking a back seat until the next batch of data and central bank commentary arrives."

"Till then, there will be more idiosyncratic tales, such as Ueda speaking in front of Japan's parliament tomorrow, and other little bits of data, such as individual consumption numbers from the US tomorrow, will have an outsized influence."

Incoming Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will appear in parliament on Friday and next Monday, with investors searching for hints on how quickly the BOJ's bond yield control program would be phased out.

23-02-2023 07:02:28

As Traders Prepare For higher Returns, The Dollar Rises

The dollar was at a seven-week high versus the euro and the Australian currency on Thursday, as market participants anticipated that the Federal Reserve will continue on its aggressive rate-hike path, as evidenced by minutes from its most recent policy meeting.

Virtually all Fed officials supported slowing the pace of interest rate rises at the US central bank's most recent policy meeting, according to minutes from the Jan. 31-Feb. 1 FOMC meeting released on Wednesday.

But, they also stated that containing unacceptably high inflation will be the "key determinant" in determining how far rates need to climb.

After a wide advance on the back of the announcement, the dollar slowed its ascent on Thursday.

The euro rose modestly to $1.0608 on Thursday but remained close to a seven-week low of $1.0598 recorded the previous day.

Similarly, the Australian dollar recovered 0.15% to $0.6815 after plunging more than 0.7% on Wednesday, weighed down further by a failure in predictions for Australian wage growth in the previous quarter.

Trade was light on Thursday due to Japan's markets being closed for a holiday.

"The meeting minutes were very much in line with expectations... markets are now pricing on higher-for-longer rates," Tina Teng, market analyst at CMC Markets, said.

"The resiliency (of the US economy) pushes the Fed to continue raising interest rates... driving the US currency higher."

Sterling was steady at $1.2046 after falling 0.6% the previous session, while the New Zealand dollar advanced 0.1% to $0.6226.

The kiwi gained some support from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's aggressive rate hike on Wednesday, as the central bank signaled additional tightening to combat rising inflation.

The US dollar index was at 104.50 against a basket of currencies, seeking to breach a more than one-month high of 104.67 sets last week.

"The Fed is expected to adhere to the majority view of 25bp increases, but the question is how long," said Macquarie analysts.

"We expect the response to be considerably more dependent on inflation statistics than on unemployment rate data, insofar as the Fed can always justify a low unemployment rate as a result of increased matching efficiency between businesses and employees looking to fill job opportunities."

The Japanese yen rose to 134.83 per dollar in Asia, with all eyes on new Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's comments.

Ueda will testify in parliament on Friday and next Monday and might provide some hints as to when the BOJ's bond yield control program will be phased out.

22-02-2023 08:02:33

EUR/USD Declines on Anticipation of Hawkish US FOMC Minutes.

• The Euro may benefit from the Eurozone's January CPI numbers (scheduled tomorrow).
• The German IFO Business Climate Index was 91.1 in February, which was in line with forecasts.
• All eyes are on the Fed's meeting minutes.

Basic Analysis of the EUR/USD

EUR/USD is now trading at 1.0636, down -0.12% in 24 hours. The currency pair was under significant pressure ahead of the American trading day due to the imminent release of the FOMC Minutes.

CPI and IFO surveys in Germany

On the European front, consumer prices in Germany grew by 1.0% month on month in February after falling by 0.8% the previous month. That resulted in an 8.7% rise in the yearly total, above January's 8.6% gain.

The headline result of the German IFO Business Climate Index climbed from 90.2 in January to 91.1 in February. The statistics are in line with what was expected. Nevertheless, the Current Economic Assessment decreased to 93.9 points in February, down from 94.1 points in January and 95.0 points expected.

Also, the IFO Expectations Index, which shows firms' views for the next six months, increased to 88.5 in February from 86.4 the previous month, above expectations of 88.3.

Investors are now waiting for ECB member conversations to understand market sentiments in the aftermath of today's IFO numbers and the impending CPI data. Good data may add to the ECB's hawkish views, lifting the EUR marginally.

The headline result of the German IFO Business Climate Index climbed from 90.2 in January to 91.1 in February. The statistics are in line with what was expected. Nevertheless, the Current Economic Assessment decreased to 93.9 points in February, down from 94.1 points in January and 95.0 points expected.

Also, the IFO Expectations Index, which shows firms' views for the next six months, increased to 88.5 in February from 86.4 the previous month, above expectations of 88.3.

Investors are now waiting for ECB member conversations to understand market sentiments in the aftermath of today's IFO numbers and the impending CPI data. Good data may add to the ECB's hawkish views, lifting the EUR marginally.

The US dollar is surging as investors await the release of hawkish Federal Reserve meeting minutes.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The technical prognosis of the EUR/USD H2 Chart indicates that the negative trend will continue for some time. The price is now moving in a downward channel and below the daily trend line. The 20-Day SMA is below the 50-Day SMA, indicating that the price may continue to decrease in the coming hours. If it continues to decline, it may find support at 1.06116. Any break below this level would result in a big drop to the next support level at 1.05155.

However, technical indicators such as the Stochastic Oscillator are approaching oversold territory. It confirms that the price will continue to fall until the US Fed Minutes are issued. In addition, the Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) Indicator have begun to form longer histograms above the red signal line, indicating the degree of selling pressure.

Any break above the trend line would take prices toward the first psychological barrier around 1.06878 on the positive side. It is at the same level as the 100-Day Simple Moving Average. Any break over this level would take prices further closer to the 1.07253 mark.

Before entering the market with a short position, wait for the price to break below the 1.06116 level. At the same time, a long position is recommended if the price breaks above the 1.0686 level.

22-02-2023 01:02:39

USD/CAD Price Analysis: US Business Activity Reached a 8 Months High

• In January, Canada's annual inflation rate fell more than expected.
• The Bank of Canada may maintain steady interest rates.
• The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates three more times this year.

The USD/CAD price analysis for today is positive. On Wednesday, the dollar found support as an unexpected spike in US economic activity boosted the likelihood that the Fed would need to raise interest rates further.

According to data released on Tuesday, American economic activity climbed unexpectedly in February, reaching its highest level in eight months.

The flash US Composite PMI Output Index, which gauges the performance of the manufacturing and service industries, climbed this month from 46.8 to 50.2.

According to data released on Tuesday, Canada's annual inflation rate fell more than predicted in January to 5.9%, allowing the Bank of Canada to leave rates steady at its next meeting while past rate rises take effect.

The consumer price index climbed by 0.5% month over month, falling short of the 0.7% growth projected by economists, according to Statistics Canada.

The Bank of Canada raised its benchmark interest rate to 4.5% in January, the highest level in 15 years. It was the first major central bank to say that it would postpone further rate rises if prices fell as projected.

The Canadian economy then surprised observers by producing a net 150,000 new jobs in January, according to figures released earlier this month.

Before the release of the inflation figures, money markets projected that another rate hike would be unavoidable this year. They currently estimate a chance of roughly 80%. Analysts projected that inflation would fall slightly from 6.3% in December to 6.1% in January.

USD/CAD Technical Price Analysis

The USD/CAD is trading much above the 30-SMA on the 4-hour chart, with the RSI over 50, indicating a bullish trend. The price is consistently making higher highs and lower lows, indicating that bulls are quite powerful.

The price is currently halted at the 1.3550 critical level, where bears have returned. This might result in a retest of the 1.3500 support level before the price attempts a new high.

22-02-2023 07:02:33

The US Dollar and Pound are Supported by Strong PMI Surveys; The Kiwi is Rising

According to data released on Tuesday, U.S. business activity unexpectedly rebounded in February to its highest level in eight months, while the UK flash composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) similarly surged to 53.0 this month, crossing the 50-point threshold for growth for the first time since July. Except for sterling, which surged 0.6% on Tuesday, the dollar rose against most major currencies following the positive statistics.

The dollar and pound rose on Wednesday as an unexpected comeback in economic activity in the United States and the United Kingdom increased the prospect that their respective central banks would need to boost interest rates further.

In other news, the New Zealand dollar rose after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) lifted interest rates by an expected 50 basis points on Wednesday but underlined that inflation is too high and employment is beyond its maximum sustainable level. According to data released on Tuesday, U.S. business activity unexpectedly rebounded in February to its highest level in eight months, while the UK flash composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) similarly surged to 53.0 this month, crossing the 50-point threshold for growth for the first time since July.

Except for sterling, which surged 0.6% on Tuesday, the dollar rose against most major currencies following the positive statistics. It was recently down 0.05% at $1.2107. In the eurozone, the flash composite PMI rose to a nine-month high of 52.3 in February, helped by surprisingly robust service growth.

The euro, on the other hand, did not gain from the report, falling 0.36% in the previous session. It was recently up 0.04% at $1.0652. "It was kind of a relativity problem in a way, that while the services sectors fared better overall, the extra push that sterling received was because of that very, very strong performance," said Rodrigo Catril, senior currency strategist at National Australia Bank.

"I believe the euro is still in a more challenging condition, given that there is a broad perception that the ECB still has work to do, which puts a little burden on their growth prospects." The dollar soared to a two-month high of 135.23 against the Japanese yen in the previous session before falling a little to 134.91 in early Asia trade on Wednesday.

The US dollar index was at 104.13, up 0.3% from the previous day. The recent uptick in corporate activity in the United States comes on the heels of a raft of solid economic indicators pointing to a still-tight labor market, sticky inflation, and healthy retail sales in the world's largest economy.

It's that time of year again. This time, it's that time of year again for a new set of photos of the same people. In the previous session, two-year rates reached a three-month high of 4.738% before falling to 4.6933%.

In early Asia trade on Wednesday, the benchmark 10-year note yield reached 3.9660%, its highest level since November. In other currencies, the Australian dollar fell as statistics indicated that salaries in Australia climbed at the quickest annual rate in a decade last quarter, but fell short of market expectations.

The Australian dollar slid 0.3% on the release of the report and was last 0.1% down at $0.6849. The kiwi jumped 0.39% to $0.6238, having previously risen about 0.5% to an intra-day high of $0.6248 following the RBNZ's cash rate announcement.

21-02-2023 08:02:53

The Euro is Struggling, But Services are Strong. Losses in Data

The euro remained under pressure on Tuesday as statistics revealed that eurozone manufacturing production fell this month, despite a rise in the more inflation-sensitive services sector.

The euro has been suffering versus the dollar in particular over the last several weeks, as strong US labor statistics and signs of persistent inflation have increased the likelihood that US interest rates will rise faster than many had predicted.

The flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the eurozone, considered a solid indicator of overall economic health, surged to its highest level in nine months, according to S&P Global.

According to Tuesday's poll, a measure of service sector activity surged to its highest level since June, but manufacturing fell at a faster pace.

"The manufacturing data are disappointing," said Jeremy Stretch, global head of currency strategy at CIBC Capital Markets.

Wage inflation is often more persistent in the services sector, and strong activity there suggests the European Central Bank is more likely to hike interest rates, so strengthening the euro, he added.

The euro was recently down 0.2% versus the dollar, trading at $1.0667. Thus far in February, it has lost approximately 2% of its value versus the US dollar. Yet, this is a bit of an oddity. It has gained 1.4% against the Japanese yen.

The US dollar index has risen about 2% so far in February, putting it on course for its best monthly performance since a 3.2% advance in September. It is now trading at 104, much below the six-week high of 104.67 set on Friday.

"The data momentum has been encouraging of late, but it will be difficult to estimate where we should be at this stage of the cycle in the coming months," Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid said.

"There has no doubt been a significant improvement from lower gas prices and relaxing banking conditions, but we have yet to see anything close to the full lag of monetary policy filter through to the United States and Europe," he added.

Later on Tuesday, the United States will release manufacturing statistics, while Friday's core personal consumption expenditures index - the Federal Reserve's favored barometer of price pressures - might give additional insight into what interest rates will do this year.

The dollar was up 0.23% versus the yen at 134.6, while it was up 0.4% against the Australian dollar at $0.68875, despite Reserve Bank of Australia minutes showing officials did not discuss suspending rises at their February meeting.

As statistics indicated that UK economic activity was significantly better than predicted in early February, the sterling reversed course and surged 0.3% against the dollar to $1.2071 and 0.5% against the euro to 88.36 pence.

21-02-2023 11:02:44

Bitcoin Gains 3.61% But Fails to Break Through Resistance Levels

Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency with the highest market capitalization, rose by 3.61% to $25,062.33. Ethereum increased by 3.13% and was trading at about $1,725.61.

Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency with the highest market value, increased by 3.61% on February 20 and was trading at $25,062.33. Meanwhile, Ethereum increased by 3.13% and was trading at around $1,725.61.

Investors and traders are keeping a tight eye on recent price variations in Bitcoin, as the world's top cryptocurrency stays inside a narrow trading range. On the one-hour chart, it is clear that Bitcoin has been trading above the 200-day moving average, signaling promising possibilities for bullish investors.

Despite this, the cryptocurrency has struggled to break through its current resistance levels of $25,452.09 and $25,148.28 and has subsequently fallen.

Bitcoin News

The BIS, a central bank-owned entity, evaluated data from cryptocurrency trading apps used in 95 countries, as well as on-chain data from IntoTheBlock on the daily distribution of bitcoin holdings. According to the statistics, while the bitcoin price was above $20,000 from August 2015 to December 2022, almost 75% of consumers downloaded a cryptocurrency platform application.

According to the analysis, the median investor who downloaded the app would have lost $431 by December 2022, which is about half of their total invested money of $900 since beginning to use the program.

This figure is greater in several developing market economies, including Brazil, India, Pakistan, Thailand, and Turkey. Furthermore, the survey claimed that if investors continued to contribute every month, more than four-fifths of consumers would have lost money.

20-02-2023 08:02:09

The Dollar Falls From aSix-Week High, While the Swedish Crown Rises

As a rush of economic data confirmed market expectations of tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, the dollar slipped down on Monday but remained near Friday's six-week high.

The US dollar index, which compares the greenback to six other major currencies, fell 0.1% to 103.91. It is still up over 1.8% for the month, putting it on course for its first monthly gain since September of last year. On Friday, it reached a six-week high of 104.67.

Because US markets are closed for Presidents' Day on Monday, liquidity is likely to be weak. In recent weeks, data from the world's largest economy have pointed to a still-tight labor market, sticky consumer prices, solid retail sales, and increased producer prices, heightening anticipation that the US central bank would do more to moderate inflation and raise interest rates.

Nevertheless, with markets anticipating the Fed funds rate to crest at just about 5.3% by July, economists believe the dollar's rally may have peaked.

"The dollar has had quite a substantial rise this month based on rate repricing, and the issue is how much farther that will go," ING's global head of markets, Chris Turner, said.

"I'd say we've seen the most of what we're calling a 'corrective rally' in the dollar," Turner added. Fed members' hawkish statements have also supported the US currency, indicating that interest rates would need to increase to combat inflation.

Sweden's crown gained after core inflation increased in January, and minutes from the central bank's most recent meeting revealed officials supported more rate rises to bring inflation under control.

The euro declined 1.1% to 11.059 Swedish crowns versus the Swedish crown, while the dollar fell 0.8% to 10.3604. "We now envision the Riksbank rising by 50 basis points in April and 25 basis points in June," said Nordea chief economist Torbjörn Isaksson, who previously predicted a 25 basis point increase in April.

"This should help the crown, and we are seeing it stronger today," Isaksson said, noting that the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) have both sounded hawkish.

Two ECB officials stated on Friday that interest rates in the eurozone still had room to climb, raising market pricing for the peak ECB rate. The euro was little changed versus the dollar, trading at $1.0687, slightly above the six-week low of $1.06125 set on Friday.

"We believe the disinflationary trend in the United States will continue in the second quarter, whereas inflation in Europe is likely to be stickier," Turner of ING said.

"Euro rates are expected to remain higher, but we believe dollar rates will more readily fall," Turner noted, adding that this might help the euro in the first half of the year.

The dollar fell 0.1% versus the yen, reaching 134. On Friday, it reached a two-month high of 135.12 yen. The Australian dollar gained 0.4% to $0.6909 ahead of the release of the minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's most recent policy meeting on Tuesday.

The kiwi gained 0.1% to $0.6249 ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) rate announcement on Wednesday, when the bank is expected to raise interest rates by half a point.

20-02-2023 12:02:46

Is the EUR/USD About to Reclaim 1.0800?

Indices from Asia:

• The ASX 200 index in Australia increased by 5.8 points (0.08%) to 7,352.60.
  
• The Nikkei 225 index in Japan has increased 7.74 points (0.03%) and now trades at 27,521.46.
• The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong has climbed by 167.35 points (0.81%) and is now trading at 20,887.16.
• The China A50 Index has climbed by 128.93 points (0.96%) and is now trading at 13,530.69.

Europe and the United Kingdom:

• The FTSE 100 futures in the United Kingdom are now up 32 points (0.4%), and the cash market is expected to open at 8,036.36.
  
• Euro STOXX 50 futures are now up 19 points (0.44%), and the cash market is expected to open at 4,293.92 points.
• The DAX futures in Germany are now up 71 points (0.46%), and the cash market is expected to start at 15,553.00.

United States Futures:

• DJI futures are now -5 points (-0.01%) lower.
  
• Futures for the S& P 500 are now down 0 points (0%).
• Futures on the Nasdaq 100 are now up 9.75 points (0.08%).
• Due to public holidays in the United States and Canada, trading volumes are likely to be lower after lunch.
• North Korea launched two additional ballistic missiles off its east coast, raising geopolitical tensions.
• The PBOC maintained its LPR (prime loan rate) at 3.65%.
• The US dollar gave up most of its weekly gains on Friday ahead of the three-day weekend, forming a bullish hammer on the EUR/USD and gold daily charts.
• There might be some mean reversion (against the US dollar) ahead of the FOMC minutes on Wednesday.
• In copper futures, a bullish engulfing week they emerged, indicating that a significant swing bottom has occurred just below $4.00.
• Oil prices and US equities fell on Friday as export prices jumped 0.8% m/m - well above the -0.2% predicted. German producer prices are in focus at 07:00 GMT, even though no top-tier economic data is due for today.

EUR/USD daily chart

The euro attempted (but failed) to finish below the 'pandemic low' on Friday, instead ending the day with a bullish hammer candle. It also closed above the 50-day EMA and has remained above it during the Asian session. Given that the US is on a federal holiday and data is weak, we see the possibility for range trading, which means bulls may be tempted to enter around the range lows and see if they can re-enter the 1.800 zone.

20-02-2023 07:02:03

Open Levels on Monday Morning - Indicative Forex Prices

On a Monday morning, market liquidity is quite low until additional Asian centers come up.

Prices are likely to move about on hardly much, as is typical for an early Asia Monday morning, so be cautious out there.

Take notice that Monday is a holiday in the United States and Canada, which will diminish interest in Asian trading (reduced customer follows).

EUR/USD 1.0685

USD/JPY 134.32

GBP/USD 1.2039

USD/CHF 0.9265

USD/CAD 1.3478

AUD/USD 0.6874

NZD/USD 0.6239

19-02-2023 03:02:59

Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast

The US Federal Reserve's victory over inflation remains a long way off, according to January data released on Tuesday, February 14. Every month, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged at +0.4%. At the same time, despite being slightly lower than the previous value (+6.4% vs +6.5%), the annual data exceeded the forecast of +6.2%. The following day, February 15, another set of American statistics was released. After two months of decline, retail sales in the United States increased at the fastest rate in nearly two years, rising from -1.1% in December to +3.0% in January (versus a forecast of +1.8%).

The first reaction was a strengthening of the dollar (the DXY index reached 104.1 points, its highest level since January 2009), as well as a dramatic decline in stock indexes. Market participants concluded that such macroeconomic data will push the Fed to actively tighten monetary policy. If the interest rate peaked at 4.9% in early February, with a subsequent decline of 50 basis points (bp) by the end of the year, the top is currently forecast at 5.25%, with a likely decrease of just 25 b.p. in 2023. At the same time, there is a 50% chance that the rate will be raised three more times, in March, May, and June.

As previously stated, the market's initial reaction was a strengthening of the dollar and a dramatic drop in stock indexes. But then there was a sudden turnaround, and investor risk appetite returned. The stock market indices rose. The market concluded that if the US economy could comfortably handle the most aggressive interest rate rise in decades, it could handle it in the future. Not only are retail sales up, but other economic indices are as well. So, employment increased by an amazing 517K new jobs, and the country's GDP, according to the Atlanta Fed's leading indicator, may expand by 2.4% rather than 2.2% in Q1 2023.

The market attitude then shifted once more. Another set of data revealed that the number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits dropped unexpectedly, while producer prices (PPI) climbed to a 7-month high in January. In this context, market expectations for the next round of monetary tightening have risen once more. The S& P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq all fell simultaneously, while the DXY rose to a six-week high of 104.58. The Dollar Index then slipped to 103.85 points on the eve of a long weekend in the United States.

The EUR/USD responded in line with the wild DXY movements. As a result, it began last week at 1.0679 and concluded it at 1.0694, yielding essentially little results. At the time of writing (February 17 evening), 80% of analysts anticipate the dollar to strengthen more, 10% expect the euro to rise, and the remaining 10% are neutral.

This time, the oscillator readings on D1 almost exactly match the analysts' opinions. 80% of them are red (20% indicate that the pair is oversold), while the remaining 20% are grey neutral. Sixty percent of trend indicators advise selling and forty percent advise purchasing. The pair's closest support is in zone 1.0600-1.0620, followed by levels and zones 1.0560, 1.0500, 1.0440, and 1.0370-1.0400. The bulls will face resistance around 1.0700-1.0710, 1.0745-1.0760, 1.0800, 1.0865, 1.0895-1.0925, 1.0985-1.1030, and 1.1110, before attempting to acquire a footing in the 1.1260-1.1360 echelon.

The publishing of business activity indices (PMI) in Germany and the Eurozone on Tuesday, February 21, is among the upcoming events. On Wednesday, February 22, the German Harmonized Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released. The minutes of the most recent FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting will also be released on this day, late in the evening. On Thursday, February 23, statistics on Eurozone inflation (CPI), unemployment, and US GDP will generate volatility. On Friday, February 24, we shall receive German GDP indications as well as information on consumer expenditure by American individuals.

Traders should also bear in mind that Monday, February 20 is a holiday in the United States as the country celebrates President's Day.

GBP/USD: The Bank of England May Cause the Pound to Collapse

The pound attempted to recoup some of its losses at the start of the week. After a recovery from the level of 1.2030 on February 13, GBP/USD achieved a two-week high of 1.2270 the following day. The pound then began to fall against the dollar, along with the other currencies in the DXY Index. As a consequence, the local minimum was determined to be 1.1915. This was followed by a return to the starting levels, with the GBP/USD closing the week at 1.2040.

Neither inflation nor unemployment figures from the UK supported the British pound (CPI fell to +10.1% in January, vs forecasts of +10.3% and +10.5% in December). The market also overlooked retail sales figures, which grew by +0.5% in January vs a prediction of -0.3% and a prior result of -1.2%. The announcement that the UK and the EU had reached an agreement in their lengthy Brexit discussions had no discernible impact on the pound's movements.

Far more crucial for the British currency's quotations were macroeconomic data from the United States, as well as the anticipation that the Bank of England (BoE) will shortly approach the conclusion of its rate rise cycle. "The Bank of England is concerned that a significant rate hike could significantly slow the economy," Commerzbank economists wrote, explaining their bearish view of GBP's prospects, and colleagues from Singapore's United Overseas Bank agreed, saying GBP/USD could retest the 1.1900 level shortly.

When it comes to the median projection of experts, 70% believe the pound will continue to fall, while 10% believe forecasts should be avoided. Just 20% of analysts believe the pound will strengthen and the pair will rise. The balance of power among the trend indicators on D1 is 85% to 15% in favor of the reds. Among oscillators, reds have a 100% edge. The pair's support levels and zones are 1.1990-1.2025, 1.1960, 1.1900-1.1915, 1.1840, 1.1800, 1.1720, and 1.1600. Resistance will be found in the levels 1.2085, 1.2145, 1.2185-1.2210, 1.2270, 1.2335, 1.2390-1.2400, 1.2430-1.2450, 1.2510, 1.2575-1.2610, 1.2700, 1.2750, and 1.2940 as the pair advances north.

In terms of the UK economy, the release of the country's business activity figures (PMI) on Tuesday, February 21 is important on the schedule for the next week.

USD/JPY: QT Expectations Continue

"The Japanese government has appointed Academician Kazuo Ueda as the new Governor of the Bank of Japan based on forecasts of stable inflation and structural wage increases," stated Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki. Yet it does not appear that this decision favored the Japanese yen. USD/JPY began the week at 131.39, reached a local high of 135.15, and closed the five days at 134.17.

Remember that 71-year-old Kazuo Ueda, a former professor at the University of Tokyo, joined the BOJ's board of governors in April 1998 and served until April 2005. Ueda stood out against the Central Bank's termination of the zero-rate policy in 2000. Even today, it appears that he would not rush to end the ultra-easy monetary policy. This is reinforced by Ueda himself, who indicated on February 10 that the regulator's existing approach is appropriate and that it must be maintained.

Notwithstanding such assurances, the issue of how this policy would be implemented under the new leader remains unanswered for the time being. The majority of specialists (60%) are waiting to see what happens. 15% predict USD/JPY to rise shortly, while 25% expect it to decline. In a three-month outlook, just 10% of analysts expect the Japanese currency to decline further, 25% remain neutral, and 65% anticipate tightening monetary policy (QT) and the yen rising, contrary to Kazuo Ueda's pronouncements.

Danske Bank experts, for example, expect that the USD/JPY rate will decline and hit 125.00 in three months. BNP Paribas Research strategists hold a similar viewpoint. "We believe the US dollar's rise to be transitory," they add. "We believe the US dollar has entered a multi-year bearish trend, and portfolio flows are turning negative for the currency." According to BNP Paribas, favorable rates in Japan may encourage local investors to repatriate cash, causing the USD/JPY to fall to 121.00 by the end of 2023.

On D1, 100% of the oscillators indicate north (15% are in the overbought zone). In terms of trend indicators, 75% look north and 25% look south. The next level of assistance is in zone 134.00, followed by levels and zones 133.60, 132.80-133.20, 131.85-132.00, 131.25 130.50, 129.70-130.00, 128.50, 127.75-128.10, 127.00-127.25, and 125.00. 134.40, 134.75-135.10, 135.60, 136.00, 137.50, 139.35, 140.60, and 143.75 are the levels and resistance zones.

This week, no significant macroeconomic data on the status of the Japanese economy are expected. Also, keep in mind that Thursday, February 23, is a holiday in Japan as the country commemorates the Emperor's Birthday.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Five Reasons for BTC’s Growth
Since last spring, the idea of regulating the bitcoin industry has become more popular. Several influencers think that a clear legislative framework is required before one can expect a significant infusion of capital from institutional investors. Here is one of MicroStrategy's co-founder Michael Saylor most recent remarks. "What we truly need is oversight," he remarked. [...] Congress must provide clear direction. The SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) of the United States must provide unambiguous norms of behavior." Such appeals from representatives of large capital, it should be noted, respond to the thoughts and actions of government officials.

Senator Elizabeth Warren, for example, is already actively recruiting conservative Republicans in the US Senate to support her legislation that considerably tightens crypto sector regulation.

We note that the sad events of 2022, triggered by the fall of several industry leaders, resulted in a significant increase in the activities of US supervisory agencies. This year, regulators began to operate with increased vigor. To begin, they targeted the Kraken cryptocurrency exchange, which was officially prohibited from providing staking services. But, the vehicle continued and collided with the infrastructure business Paxos, which is in charge of issuing the USDP, PAXG, and Binance BUSD stablecoins.

The New York State Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) has begun an inquiry into this firm. Then, the regulator ordered the company to stop issuing the BUSD stablecoin. The SEC also stated its intention to sue Paxos.

This circumstance resulted in a large outflow of cash from the stablecoin. Numerous individuals have begun to exchange BUSD for USDT. Yet it's just half the battle. Several terrified users simply abandoned Binance. The net outflow of capital from this exchange was $831 million on February 14, a record since FTX's demise.

Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao replied to US authorities' pressure by urging industry players to consider migrating to another nation. He sees Dubai (UAE), Bahrain, and France as having favorable regulatory environments. Hayden Adams, the creator of Uniswap, backed Binance's CEO. "It's a pity to see the United States' efforts in the crypto sphere," he wrote. "Innovative enterprises are given an additional incentive to expand internationally. It's as if the government outlawed Internet development 30 years ago."

Remarkably, despite this gloomy backdrop, the price of bitcoin increased, reaching $25.241 on February 16. The last time Bitcoin/USD reached this level was in mid-August 2022. The present rally has occurred for a variety of reasons.

The first of them is the previously reported NYFDS and SEC attack against Kraken and Paxos. Because of the passive revenue from staking, US regulators consider PoS coins to be toxic investments (expectation of profit). As a result, such coins may be designated as a security, with all of the legal implications it entails. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is still the result of miners' labor, which permits it to avoid (at least for the time being) a similar fate. The network hash rate is still breaking records.

Another factor driving the rise (and subsequent decline) of digital "gold" quotations is their relationship with the stock market ( S&P500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq).

The third reason is that in 2022, the primary cryptocurrency was oversold, causing the average manufacturing cost to fall below the market price. Furthermore, the majority of miners were compelled to sell their BTC inventories to meet operational costs and secure account payable payments.

The next explanation is the Ordinals protocol, which was implemented at the end of January and allows not only financial transactions in the bitcoin network, but also the transmission of any digital item, such as photos, audio, and video files. The implementation of this protocol also increased network activity. Miners got $876,000 in commissions in less than a month, setting a new record for the number of non-zero wallets.

Short-term speculators were obliged to settle short positions at the start of the BTC rise, which fueled bitcoin's growth even more. It was the fifth reason.

The current fair value of the main cryptocurrency, according to Glassnode experts, is $33,000. This is the target price for bitcoin. Kaleo, a popular analyst with 563,000 Twitter followers, cites a comparable value of $30,000. His prediction for the main cryptocurrency was likewise fairly bullish. The goal objective for ETH/USD, according to Kaleo projections, is about $3,000. Former Goldman Sachs CEO Raoul Pal also provided an Ethereum projection, estimating the coin's price to be around $10,000. Of course, such development will take time.

If we go out three years, well-known expert Willy Woo predicts that the number of users of the first cryptocurrency will increase from over 300 million to 1 billion. This corresponds to around 12% of the world's population. Willy Woo noted that it took bitcoin six months to attract the first 1,000 users. It took five years for that figure to reach one million. The network reached its present size of more than 300 million people 13.8 years after the genesis block was formed.

Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital hedge fund, named 2023 a "recovery year" for bitcoin. Nonetheless, his prognosis appears to be very conservative. According to him, the value of Bitcoin may "just" double over the next two to three years, reaching $50,000.

Another influential figure, best-selling author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, Robert Kiyosaki, predicts that bitcoin will reach $500,000 by 2025. "A massive crash is on its way. Depression is a possibility. The Fed was obliged to produce billions of dollars in counterfeit money. "By 2025, gold will be $5,000, silver will be $500, and bitcoin will be $500,000," Kiyosaki said. He also stated that gold and silver are the money of the gods, but bitcoin is equivalent to a dollar for common people.

Risky assets fell precipitously in the latter days of the previous week. Following the lead of the market indexes, cryptocurrency quotations dipped but swiftly rebounded. At the time of writing (Friday evening, February 16), BTC/USD is trading about $24,600. The overall market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market is $1.106 trillion (up from $1.10 trillion a week ago). In one week, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index increased from 48 to 61 points, moving it from the Neutral to the Greed zone.

18-02-2023 07:02:49

The Dollar Has Crossed a Six-Week High as Traders rise their Fed bets.

The dollar rose to a six-week high against a basket of currencies on Friday, as traders increased their bets that the Federal Reserve will raise rates sooner than expected and keep them there for longer, as it battles persistently high inflation while maintaining a strong employment picture. Two Federal Reserve officials said on Thursday that the US central bank should have raised interest rates more than it did earlier this month, and that additional rate hikes are needed to bring inflation back to target levels.

Major banks are also raising their forecasted rate hikes. Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to raise rates three more times this year, by a quarter of a percentage point each time, following data this week that showed persistent inflation and labor market resilience. "Right now, the markets are experiencing a significant reset due to Fed rate hike expectations," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA in New York. "It appears that the current wave of inflation is proving to be troubling for policymakers everywhere, and we may see global monetary policy become much more restrictive."

The cost of energy products drove up monthly producer prices in January, according to data released by the United States on Thursday, while the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week. Concerns about the impact of higher interest rates on the economy are also weighing on risk sentiment, giving the US dollar a boost. "We're starting to see risk aversion take hold, which is also causing some safe-haven flows for the dollar," Moya said. Fed funds futures traders now expect the fed funds rate to reach 5.31% in July and remain above 5% for the rest of the year. The Fed's target range now stands at 4.5% to 4.75%, up from 0% to 0.25% in March 2022.

The dollar index was last up 0.17% at 104.27, having previously reached 104.67, its highest level since January 6. The euro fell 0.24% to $1.0647 after falling to $1.06125 earlier in the day, its lowest level since January 6. Officials from the European Central Bank (ECB) have also stated that they expect eurozone interest rates to rise further. "There is a risk that inflation proves to be more persistent than financial markets are currently pricing," German ECB official Isabel Schnabel told Bloomberg on Friday. The dollar rose 0.41% against the Japanese yen to 134.49, having previously reached 135.12, its highest level since December 20. Sterling was unchanged at $1.1985, after falling to $1.19150, its lowest level since January 6. According to data released on Friday, British consumers unexpectedly increased their spending in January.

17-02-2023 07:02:25

GBP/USD Mid-Day Forecast

For the time being, the GBP/USD intraday bias is bearish. As the third leg of the corrective pattern from 1.2445, a fall from 1.2446 should target 1.1840 support and possibly lower. Above 1.2073 minor resistance, the intraday bias will first become neutral.

In the big picture, the rise from the medium-term bottom of 1.0351 is at least correcting the entire downtrend from 1.4248. (2021 high). Further gains are expected as long as the 1.1644 resistance turned support is maintained. The next target is 1.2759, which is the 61.8% retracement of 1.4248 to 1.0351. A sustained break will open the way back to 1.4248.

17-02-2023 08:02:42

The Dollar Has Reached a Six-Week High as Interest Rate Expectations Rise.

On Friday, the dollar rose to a six-week high against a basket of currencies. A string of positive economic data from the United States raised market expectations of further interest rate hikes.

According to data released on Thursday, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week. At the same time, monthly producer prices increased by the most in seven months in January.

The most recent data releases boosted the US dollar, sending sterling GBP=D3 to a new six-week low of $1.1952 on Friday.

Similarly, the kiwi NZD=D3 fell to a six-week low of $0.6228, while the euro EUR=EBS fell to $1.0652, its lowest level since January 9.

The US dollar index =USD rose to a new six-week high of 104.31 against a basket of currencies, putting it on track for a third straight week of gains.

"According to recent data, the US economy is still in good shape. It does not appear that the economy will enter a recession anytime soon "Tina Teng, market analyst at CMC Markets, agreed. "The markets are pricing higher-for-longer interest rates."

Thursday's reports came on the heels of earlier this week's data, which showed robust growth in U.S. retail sales in January and signs of sticky inflation, fueling fears that the Federal Reserve would have to raise rates sooner than expected.

Treasury yields in the United States have also risen in response to further hawkish rate repricing, with the two-year yield US2YT=RR last at 4.6762%.

The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields US10YT=RR reached 3.900% on Friday, the highest since December 30.

Markets now anticipate that rates will peak just below 5.3% by July. FED WATCH.

Fed officials have also indicated that the US central bank has further to go in raising interest rates, with two policymakers saying on Thursday that the Fed should have raised rates more aggressively than it did earlier this month.

In other news, the Australian dollar AUD=D3 fell 0.46% to $0.6848, close to Thursday's more than one-month low of $0.68405.

The dollar jumped to a new six-week high of 134.69 against the Japanese yen and was on track for a weekly gain of nearly 2.5%, its best week since last August.

According to finance minister Shunichi Suzuki, Japan's government chose academic Kazuo Ueda as its new central bank chief with the expectation that he will help keep inflation on target while also sustaining economic growth and wage increases.

"It is expected that nominee Governor Ueda's most important task will be to guide the BOJ out of its ultra-accommodative (quantitative and qualitative easing) policies," said Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank. "However, this does not imply that the BOJ will be in any hurry to change course."

15-02-2023 07:02:31

The Dollar Rises Ahead of US Retail Market

The US dollar continues to show signs of a possible bottom. The release of hotter-than-expected US inflation data on Tuesday, combined with weaker CPI data from the UK and a drop in Eurozone industrial production today, have all contributed to the US dollar's appeal over the euro and pound. The USD/JPY has also broken through the 133.00 resistance level, while gold and silver have been trending lower due to rising bond yields.

But whether the dollar's recovery will last remains to be seen. The dollar has taken in a lot of hawkish Fed talk and better-than-expected US data. Nonetheless, it has only slightly recovered from its lows. Investors' preference for riskier equities has repeatedly weighed on the appetite for the safe-haven US dollar. Is the tide, however, turning? Will the dollar index resume its upward trend? The immediate focus will be on US retail sales, which will be released soon.

This morning support for the dollar came from weakening foreign currencies.

The drop in EZ industrial production has weakened the EUR/USD

After a two-day recovery, the EUR/USD fell back to 1.07 this morning. Traders expect the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points in March and possibly again at the next meeting before pausing after US inflation fell less than expected to 6.4% year on year in January, which was followed by even more hawkish comments from the Fed, this time from Lorie Logan. Meanwhile, while the Eurozone economy has narrowly avoided a recession, today's release of industrial output, which showed a larger-than-expected 1.1% m/m drop, points to continued weakness.

Nonetheless, the EUR/GBP has recovered, and Eurozone indices are holding their own relatively well, as economists have been impressed with the Eurozone economy's resilience. Indeed, the European Commission now expects the eurozone to avoid a recession this year.

The UK CPI falls but remains in the double digits

In the United Kingdom, annual CPI remained above 10% for the seventh consecutive month in January, though it fell more than expected (10.3%) from 10.5% the previous month to 10.1%. Core inflation fell even further to 5.8% from 6.3% previously, giving the Bank of England some breathing room after raising borrowing costs for the tenth time in a row earlier this month.

However, the BoE still cannot relax, and BoE Governor Bailey has expressed concerns about the persistence of inflation: "I am very uncertain, particularly about price-setting and wage-setting in this country. We have the largest upside skew in our inflation forecasts that we have ever had." The slight easing in CPI follows hot employment and wage data released the day before.

Stronger UK wages and double-digit CPI data suggest that more needs to be done to return inflation to the 2% target. If CPI remains elevated around current levels of 10% or so, it will encourage workers to bid up wages, and companies may have to keep raising prices to cover their costs.

As a result, labour market tightness may continue to be a major source of domestic inflationary pressure for some time. As a result, the Bank of England may be forced to raise interest rates one or two more times before taking a break.

15-02-2023 01:02:24

The Yen's Weakness Continues, and The Sterling is Poised For Further Gains

In the current market environment, the yen's weakness is a clearer development. Benchmark yields in Germany and the United Kingdom are extending their recent gains, while the US 10-year yield remains firm above 3.7%. However, the 10-year JGB yield remains constrained by the BoJ-imposed ceiling. For the time being, the dollar is mixed after traders refused to commit to yesterday's CPI data. Sterling, on the other hand, appears poised to benefit from any positive surprises in today's consumer inflation data. The question is whether the Pound's rally if it occurs, will lift the Euro and Swiss currencies or put them under pressure.

GBP/CHF is making some headway in breaking through 1.1206 minor resistance. Today's upside acceleration strengthens the case that the entire corrective pattern from 1.1574 has been completed. The resistance level of 1.1433 should be the next target. A strong break there will pave the way for a larger rally from 1.0813 to 1.1574 later in the month. Let's see how things go.

In Asia, the Nikkei fell -0.42%. The Hong Kong HSI has fallen -1.51%. The Shanghai SSE in China is down -0.47%. The Singapore Strait Times is down -1.06% today. Japan's 10-year JGB yield is -0.007 lower than 0.503. DOW dropped -0.46% overnight. The S& P 500 fell -0.03%. The NASDAQ increased by 0.57%. The 10-year yield increased from 0.044 to 3.761 percent.

Fed Harker: It will be higher than 5%

In response to yesterday's inflation report, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker stated, "it was good and it was moving down, but not quickly." He went on to say that the FOMC will have to "let the data dictate" tightening and that the Fed funds rate will be above 5%. How much more than 5? It will be heavily influenced by what we see."

"In my opinion, we're not done yet... "However, we are likely to close," he said. "I expect that at some point this year, the policy rate will be restrictive enough that we will hold rates steady and let monetary policy do its work," he said in a prepared speech.

"Rates are now at a level that allows us to slow down and proceed cautiously, and I believe the days of raising 75 basis points at a time are long gone," Harker said. "At the most recent meeting, I voted for a hike of 25 basis points, which some might call slow but is closer to cruising speed in terms of tightening."

Fed Williams: We need all of the gears to be turning at the same time.

Yesterday, York Fed President John Williams stated, "We will stay the course until our job is done... We must bring the economy back into balance and keep inflation below 2% consistently."

"We need all of the gears to turn at the same time to restore the balance between demand and supply in the entire economy," Williams said. "We still have a long way to go to reach that goal."

He expects core inflation, which was 4.4% in December, to fall to 3% this year and then 2% over the next few years. This year, growth is expected to slow to 1%, with unemployment rising to between 4% and 5%.

RBA Lowe: I don't believe we've reached the peak of interest rates yet.

In a Senate hearing, RBA Governor Philip Lowe stated, "I don't think we're at the peak (on interest rates) yet, but how far we have to go up I don't know." He noted that inflation, which is currently sitting at 7.8%, was still "wage too high". Before there could be any significant changes in inflation, unemployment would have to rise.

"I understand why some people focus on the risks on one side, but we have to be mindful of the risk of higher inflation," Lowe cautioned. "It's damaging to the economy. And all evidence suggests that if inflation remains high for an extended period, expectations adjust, resulting in higher interest rates and increased unemployment."

"The risks are two-sided, and we're attempting to navigate a narrow path."

Looking Forward

The European session is dominated by UK inflation data, including CPI and PPI. Eurozone trade balance and industrial production will be released.

Later in the day, US retail sales will be highlighted, as well as Empire State manufacturing, industrial production, the NAHB housing index, and business inventories. Housing starts, manufacturing sales, and wholesale sales will be reported by Canada.

15-02-2023 07:02:55

The Sticky US Inflation Readout, Dollar Makes New Level

On Wednesday, the dollar found some support after persistently high US inflation suggested that interest rates would remain high for longer than investors had anticipated.

The headline CPI was 0.5 percent in January, owing primarily to higher rental and food costs. The annual figure of 6.4 percent was slightly higher than expected, and traders were busy unwinding bets on the rate falling toward the end of 2023.

The US dollar rose to a six-week high of 133.30 yen before falling back to 132.73 early in the Asian session. Other currency pairs were a little more volatile, but the US dollar, which had been steadily falling in January, is holding its own.

"Inflation remains excessive," said Commonwealth Bank of Australia strategist Joe Capurso.

"A tentative slowing of inflation is now more difficult to detect. There isn't much good news for (the Fed), which expects inflation to fall much further towards its 2% target."

According to Federal Reserve officials, the US central bank will need to keep gradually raising interest rates to beat inflation.

"We must remain prepared to continue raising rates for a longer peperiodhan than previously anticipated," Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said.

14-02-2023 08:02:29

EUR/USD Mid-Day Forecast

The EUR/USD failed to decisively break through the 1.0790 resistance level, and the intraday bias remains neutral. If 1.0654 is broken, the corrective fall from 1.1032 will resume to the 38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1032 at 1.0463. Strong support should be seen nearby to bring about a rebound, at least on the first attempt. On the upside, a firm break of 1.0790 minor resistance will shift the bias back to the upside for a retest of the 1.1032 high.

In the grand scheme of things, the rally from the 0.9534 low (2022 low) is a medium-term uptrend rather than a correction. The next target is the 61.8% retracement of the 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273. As long as 1.0482 support holds, this will remain the preferred scenario.

14-02-2023 05:02:29

FOREX-Jobs Figures Send the Euro and Sterling Higher; the Dollar Falls Ahead of CPI.

The euro and sterling rose against the dollar as UK basic pay growth accelerated and eurozone employment increased faster than expected, highlighting the region's labour market's resilience and tightness.

Despite slowing economic growth, the number of people with jobs in the eurozone increased by 0.4% quarter on quarter, twice as fast as economists polled by Reuters expected.

In the United Kingdom, data show that the rate of growth in basic pay accelerated again in the final three months of 2022, despite a cooling labour market. The Bank of England (BoE) is closely monitoring the rate of pay growth in the United Kingdom as it determines how much higher to raise interest rates.

"With the Bank of England having already signaled on numerous occasions that a tight labor market remains a threat to price stability," said Stuart Cole, a head macro-economist at Equity Capital.

Money markets are pricing in an 80% chance of a quarter-point percentage point hike by the Bank of England in March and a 74% chance of a 50 basis point hike by the European Central Bank in March.

By 1055 GMT, the euro was up 0.3% against the dollar, trading at $1.0756, after falling 2.56% since reaching a ten-month high of $1.1034 on February 2. Sterling gained 0.4% to $1.2192 after briefly exceeding an 11-day high against the US dollar.

CPI in the United States NEXT

The dollar index, which compares the US currency to six major rivals, fell 0.18% to 103.03 ahead of a closely watched inflation report, while the yen rose as a surprise pick. Kazuo Ueda has been nominated as the next governor of the Bank of Japan.

Markets are looking to U.S. consumer inflation data for more clues on the Federal Reserve's policy outlook, with the headline figure expected to have risen by an annual 6.2% in January, following a 6.5% increase in December, according to a Reuters poll.

According to Moh Siong Sim, a currency strategist at the Bank of Singapore, the debate right now is whether inflation will remain stable at 3% to 4% or fall to 2% in line with market expectations.

The Federal Reserve of the United States raised interest rates by 25 basis points earlier this month, claiming that it had reached a tipping point in its fight against inflation.

Interest rates in the United States are expected to peak at around 5.2% in July and end the year at 4.9%, reversing earlier expectations for the start of more aggressive rate cuts later this year.

The yen in Japan rose 0.1% to 132.27 per dollar. The yen fell sharply last year to a 32-year low of 151.94 per dollar as US interest rates rose and Japanese interest rates remained near zero, but it has since recovered those losses as the Fed looks to pause its tightening and speculation grows that the BOJ will abandon its ultra-easy policy.

Data released on Tuesday showed that Japan's economy avoided recession but recovered much slower than expected in October-December as business investment fell, implying that the BOJ's exit from the stimulus will be difficult.

14-02-2023 07:02:45

The Dollar Has Reached a Six-Week High Against the Yen Ahead of US Inflation Data

In slow trading on Monday, the dollar rose to six-week highs against the rate-sensitive Japanese yen on expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep monetary policy tighter for longer, sending short-term US Treasury yields higher. The US dollar, on the other hand, fell against most currencies as investors reduced their long dollar positions following a strong rally last week. The week's main event, the release of US consumer price data on Tuesday, which loomed over Monday's trading, will either challenge or reinforce expectations for US rates to remain higher for longer.

"The Fed appears to be continuing its rate hikes. Last week, (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell hinted at a higher peak rate if the labor market remained strong "Erik Bregar, director of foreign exchange and precious metals risk management at Silver Gold Bull in Toronto, agreed. "Last week's Fed speech struck me as hammering home higher rates for a longer period. That is why the US dollar has gained traction over the last week and a half." The dollar rose to 132.91 yen, its highest level since January 6. It was last trading at 132.69 yen, up nearly 1%. The dollar tracked the rise in the two-year US Treasury yield, which was last up three basis points (bps) at 4.542%, after reaching its highest since late last year.

"The market does not want to be short the dollar/yen ahead of tomorrow's CPI," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Forex in New York. In Asia trading, the euro hit a one-month low of $1.0656 before closing at $1.0718, up 0.4%. After hitting a one-month low of $1.1961 last week, the British pound gained 0.6% to $1.2133. The dollar index, which measures the value of the US currency against six major currencies, is now at 103.35, down 0.2%. "We have a nice pullback in the US dollar after a strong rally last week," said Chandler of Bannockburn. "I don't believe we've yet removed key levels.

But, following last week's moves and ahead of tomorrow's CPI, we're consolidating some positions." Higher US yields were a major driver of the yen's weakness. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield hit a new six-week high of 3.755% on Monday, while the two-year yield hit its highest level since late November, at 4.56%. Last year, the Japanese yen fell sharply to a 32-year low of 151.94 per dollar as US interest rates rose while Japanese rates remained near zero. It has gained ground this year as US interest rates appeared to be nearing their peak and as expectations grew that the Bank of Japan would exit its ultra-easy stance, but both scenarios appear to have been postponed.

According to sources, former Bank of Japan board member Kazuo Ueda is set to become the next governor. In an interview the same day, Ueda stated that the BOJ's current ultra-easy policy was appropriate. In the United States, much stronger job data released at the beginning of February suggests that the economy is performing well, implying that the Fed is more likely to keep rates high. As a result, the release of the US CPI report on Tuesday will be critical.

Money markets expect U.S. interest rates to peak at 5.2% around July, compared to the Fed's current target rate of 4.5-4.75%, but have largely discounted major rate cuts later in the year. In other news, the Swiss franc strengthened after higher-than-expected Swiss inflation data. The dollar dropped as low as 0.92 Swiss francs before closing down 0.3% at 0.9210 francs.

11-02-2023 07:02:57

Technical Forecast for the Japanese Yen: USD/JPY Indecision- Breakout Pending

Japanese Yen technical forecast: USD/JPY weekly trade levels

• Japanese Yen rebounds off multi-year uptrend support
• USD/JPY sets yearly opening range around objective yearly open
• Resistance 133.20s, 134.77, 136.66– support 128.30s, 125.85-126.56 (key), 122.20s 

Since the beginning of the year, the Japanese yen has traded within a 5.6% range, with USD/JPY responding to long-term uptrend support last month. The stage is set, and the levels are clear, as the price remains at the 2023 yearly open target. On the USD/JPY weekly technical chart, these are the most recent targets and invalidation levels.

The Japanese Yen has been consolidating within its January range, with USD/JPY trading just above multi-year slope support. We're looking for a breakout in the coming days to see if the broader October correction is over.

The 52-week moving average is near 133.20, and it is supported by the yearly range highs at 134.77 and the 38.2% retracement at 136.66. To mark the resumption of the broader uptrend, a breach / close above the July high-week close/slope resistance (red) at 138.48 would be required.

The lower parallel (currently 128.30s) provides initial support, followed by 125.85-126.56- a region defined by the 2015 swing high and the 50% retracement of the 2020 advance. To invalidate the broader multi-year uptrend, a break / weekly close below the original slope extending off the 2021 lows (currently 122.20s) would be required.

Bottom line: The USD/JPY rebounded off uptrend support last month, with price consolidating just above—a breakout is imminent. If the price stays within this multi-year slope, trading losses should be limited to 125.85. Once we have more clarity on the near-term USD/JPY technical trade levels, I will publish an updated Japanese Yen short-term technical outlook.

10-02-2023 07:02:33

BTC/USD Technical Analysis

On the daily chart below, we can see that the Bitcoin price rejected the summer 2022 high of 24245. The crypto market is primarily driven by risk sentiment, and recent developments in interest rates may be a headwind for the market.

We recently saw a drop, but the main event will be the US CPI report next week. If that exceeds expectations, we should see a significant risk-off sentiment kick in, sending the price of Bitcoin significantly lower. The first level of support for a larger sell-off is at 18152. Buyers, on the other hand, will need to break through the resistance around the 25K mark to start looking for higher highs.

The price was diverging with the MACD trading into the resistance at 24245. That indicated a weakening upward momentum, and recent fundamental catalysts did the rest to push the price lower. The moving averages are currently pointing south, and sellers would prefer a pullback into the swing resistance at 22366.

As there is a good confluence into the same level, we can see where the sellers may start to pile in. The swing resistance, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, and the trendline all meet at the 22366 price level. From a risk management standpoint, that would be an excellent level to lean on and place stops above the trendline and 50% or 61.8% Fibonacci levels.

10-02-2023 12:02:43

The dollar is Rising as Investors Focus on Inflation Data

The dollar rose broadly on Friday as investors remained risk-averse ahead of next week's U.S. inflation data, with concerns about an economic slowdown and the pace of the Federal Reserve's rate increases dampening sentiment. The dollar index, which compares the safe-haven US currency to six major peers, rose 0.155% to 103.34 after falling 0.24% the previous session.

The index is poised to post a weekly gain, its second consecutive positive week, and its longest winning streak since October. The euro was down 0.15% to $1.072, heading for a second straight week of losses, while the pound was last trading at $1.2093, down 0.24% on the day ahead of fourth-quarter GDP data.

In the absence of key data and Federal Reserve speakers, OCBC currency strategist Christopher Wong believes the foreign exchange market will trade sideways on Friday, focusing on inflation data due next week. "The Fed is doing policy calibration in the broad picture... but there is caution in the near term, given recent Fed speakers and how the disinflation trend may be bumpy." In the meantime, the yen fell 0.12% to 131.74 per dollar. According to Reuters, Japan's government intends to present the new Bank of Japan governor nominee and two deputy governor nominees to parliament on February 14.

According to data released on Friday, wholesale prices in the country rose 9.5% year on year in January, adding to signs of inflationary pressures that could put the central bank under pressure to phase out its massive stimulus program. The Australian dollar fell 0.20% to $0.692, while the New Zealand dollar fell 0.24% to $0.631 against the US dollar. The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points last week and said it was seeing signs of disinflation, but a massive jobs report shook investors, who feared policymakers would remain hawkish for much longer. In his speech this week, Fed Chair Powell reiterated his belief that disinflation was underway.

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said on Thursday that tight monetary policy was "unmistakably" slowing the US economy, allowing the Fed to move "more deliberately" with any future interest rate increases. The yield on 10-year Treasury notes fell 1.6 basis points to 3.667%, close to the month high of 3.692% reached on Wednesday. A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve measuring the difference between two-year and 10-year Treasury notes, viewed as an indicator of economic expectations, was at -82.5 basis points, having inverted as far as -88 basis points, the most in nearly two months. The deep inversion in this part of the yield curve indicates that a recession is imminent.

Next week's CPI data in the United States will be closely watched by investors to see if disinflation is taking place. "The market is more data-dependent following last Friday's spectacular US jobs report," DBS senior currency strategist Philip Wee said. Wee said the Fed has signaled that more surprises in the inflation and jobs reports before its next meeting in March could lead the central bank to raise its rate forecast for this year above the 5.1% it projected in December. "With the Fed possibly joining other central banks in delivering more hikes, the greenback has leveled off this month," Wee said.

10-02-2023 07:02:35

Today's USD/CNY Midpoint is Set by the PBOC at 6.7884. (vs. Estimate at 6.7885)

The People's Bank of China established the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the upcoming trading session.

The offshore yuan is denoted by CNH. The trading range of USD/CNH is unrestricted.

A significantly higher or lower rate than expected is usually interpreted as a PBOC signal. 6.7850 was the previous close.

The PBoC injects 203 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repos at the same 2.0% rate as before.

Today, 23 billion yuan of RRs mature, resulting in a net injection of 180 billion yuan in open market operations.

The net injection for the week is 602 billion yuan.

More than 1 trillion yuan has been net injected into domestic markets in the last three days to alleviate the cash crunch.

09-02-2023 08:02:10

EUR/USD Mid-Day Forecast

The EUR/USD intraday bias remains neutral for the time being. On the downside, a break of 1.0668 will restart the correction from the 1.1032 short-term top, with a 38.2% retracement of 0.9534 to 1.1032 at 1.0463 as the next target. Nonetheless, a strong break of the 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 1.0804) will result in a retest of the 1.1032 high.

In the grand scheme of things, the current development indicates that the rally from the 0.9534 low (2022 low) is a medium-term uptrend rather than a correction. The next target is the 61.8% retracement of the 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273. As long as 1.0482 support holds, this will remain the preferred scenario.

09-02-2023 12:02:17

EUR/AUD Daily Forecast

EUR/AUD could fall further, retesting the 1.5254/71 support zone. A strong break there would have larger bearish implications and would resume the fall from 1.5976. Above 1.5650, the rebound to 1.5749 resistance will resume.

In the big picture, it's still too early to tell if the rise from 1.4281 signals a bullish trend reversal. However, as long as 1.5271 support holds, such a rally is likely to continue. A break of 1.5976 will target the key resistance level of 1.6434 next. A firm break of 1.5271 will, on the other hand, maintain medium-term bearishness.

09-02-2023 07:02:47

EUR/USD: Strong Bullish Bounce at 50-Day SMA

Risk 0.75%.

Today's trades can only be made before 5 p.m. London time.

Ideas for Short Trades

• Short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe, on the next touch of $1.0766 or $1.0802.
• Set the stop loss one pip above the current swing high.
• Once the trade is 20 pips in profit, move the stop loss to break even.
• When the price reaches 50 pips in profit, take 50% of the position as profit and leave the rest to ride.

Ideas for Long Trades

• Long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe and the next touch of $1.0692, $1.0634, or $1.0602.
• Set the stop loss one pip below the current swing low.
• Once the trade is 20 pips in profit, move the stop loss to break even.
• When the price reaches 20 pips in profit, take 50% of the position as profit and leave the rest to ride.

The best way to spot a classic "price action reversal" is for an hourly candle to close with a higher close, such as a pin bar, doji, outside, or even just an engulfing candle. You can profit from these levels or zones by observing the price action that occurs at the specified levels.

EUR/USD Forecast

In my analysis of the EUR/USD currency pair yesterday, I predicted that the pair would consolidate above the $1.07 handle during the London session.

I was incorrect, as the price broke well below $1.07 to reach the 50-day SMA, where it bounced hard and then recovered all of its lost ground. Although it quickly recovered after dropping below that level, I was correct in spirit if not in fact.

Yesterday, the price rose to the nearest resistance level of $1.0766 before reversing. The important thing now is that the price has been gradually but steadily rising in recent hours. Overall, the technical picture suggests that the bullish recovery from yesterday's low will continue, so I believe we will see an up day today.

What moved the price yesterday were Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks about inflation (which is falling nicely and will reach 2% in 2024) and rate hikes (which may need to be increased if the data demands it) - it was all about the US Dollar and little about the Euro. The overall effect of Powell's remarks is likely to be a slightly weaker US Dollar, but what is noteworthy is that the US Dollar's bullish momentum appears to have peaked, whereas the Euro remains a relatively strong currency.

I am bullish, but I believe the price will remain between $1.0692 and $1.0766 today, so a scalp off either level could be a good trade - I would prefer a long trade from $1.0692 or even $1.0700.

08-02-2023 08:02:41

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The daily chart below shows how the US Dollar has consistently lost ground since October 2022. The US Dollar, which was one of the most heavily traded trades in 2022, was heavily sold off as the market began to price in a less hawkish Fed with an earlier-than-expected pause.

However, as the recent NFP report and ISM Services PMI showed a resilient economy, those expectations are dwindling. The culprit could be the recent easing in financial conditions, with treasury yields falling and the stock market rally.

The formation of a double top at the 1.2450 resistance level may indicate a significant shift in expectations now that Fed members have begun to hint at a possible higher terminal rate and the market has adjusted to the new developments.

If the price breaks through the neckline at 1.1845, the double top will be confirmed, and we could see a significant drop to 1.1200.

The best confluence zone would be at 1.2263, which is the swing resistance as well as the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.

There is no important economic data today, so the technicals should take the lead until tomorrow's US Jobless Claims report.

The divergence between price and MACD signalled a loss of selling momentum, resulting in the current pullback that is extending up to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.

That would be the first level of resistance where sellers might try to re-enter the market. As previously stated, a stronger resistance level would be at 1.2263, where the 61.8% Fibonacci level and the swing resistance meet.

08-02-2023 12:02:20

EUR/AUD Daily Forecast

With a break of the 4-hour 55 EMA, the EUR/AUD intraday bias has returned to the downside. A deeper drop would be expected back to 1.5254/71. A strong break there will have a more bearish implication and will resume the fall from 1.5976. Above 1.5650, the rebound to 1.5749 resistance will resume.

In the big picture, it's still too early to tell whether the rise from 1.4281 represents a bullish trend reversal. However, as long as 1.5271 support holds, such a rally is likely to continue. If 1.5976 is broken, the next key resistance level will be 1.6434. A firm break of 1.5271 will, on the other hand, maintain medium-term bearishness.

08-02-2023 07:02:34

US Dollar Falls as Powell Sticks to the Fed's Playbook.

The New Zealand dollar rose 0.02% to $0.63265, while the Australian dollar rose 0.11% to $0.69675 after rising more than 1% on Tuesday. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points on Tuesday, as expected, but reiterated that further increases were required, indicating a more hawkish policy stance than many had anticipated.

The dollar fell on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell failed to offer new signs of a hawkish pushback against the United States' resilient labor market, prompting investors to bet that interest rates will not rise much further.

Powell acknowledged in a question-and-answer session before the Economic Club of Washington on Tuesday that interest rates may need to rise sooner than expected if economic conditions remained strong, but he reiterated his belief that a process of disinflation was underway.

After falling in the previous session as Powell spoke, the US dollar struggled to recover its losses in Asia trade on Wednesday.

Sterling gained 0.06% to $1.2057, recovering from a one-month low of $1.19615 on Tuesday. Similarly, the euro was last 0.04% higher at $1.0732, having dropped to $1.06695 in the previous session, its lowest level since January 9.

Powell "didn't necessarily say anything tangibly new.... I think we're becoming quite accustomed to the idea that the Fed is now certainly data dependent," said Chris Weston, Pepperstone's head of research.

"The markets and the central bank are all in a position now where they're just watching the data, so we're less sensitive to Fed officials and far more sensitive to data for the time being."

The US dollar index held steady against a basket of currencies, at 103.31, after falling 0.3% the previous session. Following Friday's blockbuster jobs report, which showed that nonfarm payrolls increased by 517,000 jobs last month, the dollar experienced a brief rally.

The US dollar index rose to a one-month high of 103.96 on Tuesday as investors raised their expectations of how far the Fed could raise interest rates.

Markets expect the Fed funds rate to peak just above 5.1% by June, according to futures pricing. In other news, the Japanese yen rose 0.16% to 130.88 per dollar, following a 1.2% gain in the previous session.

According to Reuters, Japan's government is considering presenting its nominees for the next Bank of Japan governor and two deputy governors to parliament next week. The New Zealand dollar rose 0.02% to $0.63265, while the Australian dollar rose 0.11% to $0.69675 after rising more than 1% on Tuesday.

The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points on Tuesday, as expected, but reiterated that further increases were required, indicating a more hawkish policy stance than many had anticipated. "The hawkish tilt caught most market participants off guard," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. She now anticipates two more 25-basis-point increases in March and April, bringing the cash rate to a high of 3.85%.

07-02-2023 07:02:16

The USD/JPY Price Has Stalled at 132.87, as Investors Await the Fed's Speech.

• The USDJPY pair only registered a false breakout above the historical level, the retreat is natural.
• The USD rose as expected following better-than-expected data on Friday.
• A new higher high stimulate additional growth.

In the short term, the USD/JPY price fell as Japanese Yen Futures recovered while the Dollar Index retreated slightly.

From Thursday's low of 128.08 to yesterday's high of 132.90, the currency pair increased by 3.76%. It is currently trading at 131.87 at the time of writing.

The price rose sharply after the US reported positive data on Friday, as expected. The NFP came in at 517K versus 193K expected, the unemployment rate fell unexpectedly from 3.5% to 3.4%, and the ISM Services PMI came in at 55.2, far exceeding the 50.5 point estimate.

Today's Japanese data was mixed. Household spending fell by 1.3%, versus the 0.3% drop expected, while average cash earnings increased by 4.8%, exceeding the 2.5% growth forecasted, and leading indicators fell to 97.2%, down from 97.4% in the previous reporting period.

Later, the US will release the Trade Balance, which is expected to be -68.5 billion versus -61.5 billion in the previous reporting period. Consumer Credit will also be made available. Still, anything can happen when Fed Chair Powell speaks. This is regarded as a high-impact event, and the USD may experience sharp movements.

Tomorrow's Japanese Current Account and Bank Lending data could also be interesting. Fundamentally, the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment on Friday could be the most important event of the week.

USD/JPY Price Technical Analysis:

The USD/JPY pair only registered a false breakout through the previous high of 132.87 and has now turned to the downside. After reaching the supply zone, a temporary retreat is natural.

Furthermore, it has failed to remain above the ascending pitchfork's median line (ML), indicating that buyers have become exhausted. It is now almost at the 131.57 downside barrier.

It remains to be seen how it will react in the aftermath; a valid breakdown may signal further declines. Only remaining anova it and achieving a new higher high activates additional growth.

07-02-2023 01:02:21

EUR/USD Forex Signal: Possible Stabilization Above $1.07

Risk 0.75%

Today only, between 8 a.m. and 5 p.m. London time, trades must be entered.

Ideas for Short Trades

• Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe on the next touch of $1.0766, $1.0802, or $1.0876.
• Set the stop loss one pip above the current swing high.
• Once the trade is 20 pips in profit, adjust the stop loss to break even.
• When the price reaches 50 pips in profit, take 50% of the position as profit and leave the rest of the position to run.

Ideas for Long Trades

• Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe on the next touch of $1.0692, $1.0634, or $1.0602.
• Set the stop loss one pip below the current swing low.
• Once the trade is 20 pips in profit, adjust the stop loss to break even.
• When the price reaches 20 pips in profit, take 50% of the position as profit and leave the rest of the position to run.

The best way to spot a classic "price action reversal" is for an hourly candle to close with a higher close, such as a pin bar, doji, outside, or even just an engulfing candle. You can profit from these levels or zones by observing the price action that occurs at the specified levels.

EUR/USD Forecast

In my previous analysis of the EUR/USD currency pair, I predicted that due to the long-term bullish trend, the price would rise later and possibly attempt to break above the key resistance level at $1.0937.

This was a fairly accurate call in the medium term, but it was useless for trading that day because the price fell during the London session.

Despite the ECB's 0.50% rate hike and promise of another 1% in rate hikes during the current cycle, the technical picture is significantly more bearish a couple of weeks later, as the US Dollar has strengthened significantly in recent days - and it is this that has driven the price down here, with the Euro being somewhat stronger than many other currencies, particularly the British Pound.

Last Friday's release of extremely strong US NFP data sent the price sharply lower.

Finally, the price has begun to stabilize above the $1.07 handle in recent hours.

I believe we will see some consolidation here today, with the price moving sideways until the end of the London session, so a scalp trade on any rejection of key support or resistance will likely be the best opportunity that can be set up here today.

Following the London close, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak about the US economy at a public but minor event. His words will be closely scrutinized, and US Dollar bears will almost certainly seize on anything he says to bolster their case, so we could see a price rise here later in the New York session. Alternatively, he could sound quite hawkish on further rate hikes, which would likely send the price below the $1.0692 support level.

07-02-2023 08:02:37

The USD is Steadily Declining in Asian Trade

Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve, will speak today, Tuesday, 7 February 2023, at 1740 GMT, 1240 US ET.

I thought we were ahead of schedule, but FX has other plans. The Australian, New Zealand, British, Japanese, and Canadian dollars are all higher than the US dollar. The EUR/USD is also up, but not as well.

There is no new news or data other than what has already been posted.

The next significant event is the RBA statement, which is scheduled for 0330 GMT, 2230 US ET. A rate hike of +25 basis points is widely anticipated.

06-02-2023 09:02:11

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The weekly price chart shows the US Dollar Index printing a bullish outside candlestick, which typically indicates a trend reversal. For the third week in a row, the low of the week strongly rejected the support level shown at 101.07, which is a negative sign for bears.

Despite these encouraging signs, the Dollar remains in a long-term bearish trend, with prices remaining well below levels reached three and six months ago.

I don't like trading against long-term trends, but there are signs that the bearish trend is about to pause or make a deeper bullish retracement, so traders should be cautious and keep an eye out for this. Trades against the US Dollar should be entered only if we see bullish price action in the daily time frame.

The EUR/USD currency pair printed a bearish outside candlestick after reaching a new long-term high last week, which is a bearish sign.

Despite the bearish price action, the price has yet to fall by 3 days ATR, indicating that the bullish trend is statistically valid. It should also be noted that this currency pair frequently experiences significant pullbacks within trends.

The Euro's fundamentals remain positive, with the ECB currently positioned as one of the most hawkish central banks.

As a result of these factors, I believe the price will rise this week, in line with its long-term trend. Long-term trends in this currency pair are statistically significant. Bulls, on the other hand, should exercise caution and wait for more bullish price action in the daily time frame before entering any new long trades.

06-02-2023 08:02:04

US Dollar Gains After Strong US Job Data, While the Yen Falls.

The dollar extended its gains on Monday after a strong US jobs report suggested the Federal Reserve could remain hawkish for longer, while the yen was hit by news that Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya was being considered for the position of next governor.

The Nikkei newspaper reported, citing anonymous government and ruling party sources, that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's administration was nearing a decision on who would succeed current governor Haruhiko Kuroda, as well as two new deputy governors.

Following the report, the yen fell to a three-week low of 132.60 per dollar, and was last trading at 132.35, down 0.88%. According to Tapas Strickland, head of market economics at the National Australia Bank, Amamiya's dovish policy credentials raise doubts about the BOJ's eventual exit from its ultra-easy monetary policy. Many people, including opposition politicians and traders, have criticized the B OJ's loose policy settings for distorting market function.

"Amamiya has advised Kuroda on monetary policy since 2013, and is widely regarded as the most dovish of the contenders, shattering hopes that the BOJ's policy normalization could progress under the new chief," Saxo Markets strategists said. Amamiya was instrumental in developing Kuroda's asset-purchasing program in 2013 and has consistently advocated for the continuation of ultra-low interest rates. However, he stated in July that the BOJ must "always" consider ways to exit ultra-loose monetary policy.

The Labor Department's closely watched employment report released on Friday revealed that nonfarm payrolls increased by 517,000 jobs last month. A Reuters poll of economists predicted a gain of 185,000. On Monday, the dollar jumped higher and extended its rally. The US dollar reached a nearly 4-week high of 103.22 against a basket of currencies and was last trading at 103.18.

The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, saying it had turned a corner in its fight against inflation, prompting investors to price in a more dovish path in the future. However, the eye-popping payrolls figure, combined with a rebound in the US services industry in January, has investors questioning whether the Fed is nearly finished with its monetary tightening policy.

"Of course, there are concerns that the much better-than-expected data will bolster the Fed's case for two more hikes and keeping rates elevated for longer," NAB's Strickland said. The euro was down 0.09% to $1.0783, while the pound was last trading at $1.203, down 0.17% on the day and at its lowest level since January 6. The Australian dollar fell 0.14% to $0.6912, while the New Zealand dollar dropped 0.33% to $0.6310.

05-02-2023 09:02:09

Weekly Forex Forecast (February 6-10 2023)

The DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCAD are all covered in today's weekly Forex forecast

Last week, the dollar reversed higher, and a few major currency pairs broke significant levels, making this week crucial for February

Forecast for the US Dollar Index (DXY)
On Friday, the USD index (DXY) rose after reclaiming 101.50.

Dollar bulls, on the other hand, will have their work cut out for them next week with 103.50, a confluence of resistance based on the key horizontal and channel resistance.

A daily close above 103.50 would open the door to 105.60, pushing EURUSD and GBPUSD lower.

Alternatively, a daily close below 102.60 would indicate that Friday's move was a sham and would maintain the recent DXY range.

On Thursday and Friday, the EURUSD broke through several key support levels.

Following Thursday's close, I mentioned to members of the Discord group that EURUSD could reverse.

Friday, however, retested that 1.0925 level and sold off significantly.

Nonetheless, the euro is approaching key support levels of 1.0780 and 1.0700.

So we could see a bounce from one of those areas early this week, followed by a retest of the 1.0850 regions as new resistance.

However, last week's EURUSD candle indicates weakness and a possible retest of 1.0700 next week.

I stated that a daily close below 1.2240 would confirm the breakdown, and the session closed at 1.2224 on Thursday.

So it's no surprise that GBPUSD fell on Friday, though I doubt anyone expected a 175-pip drop.

GBPUSD bears will most likely defend 1.2110 this week.

However, if tested, the recent range lows at 1.1900 should attract significant demand.

On Friday, the USDJPY closed above 130.60, a level I've mentioned several times in recent videos.

The first 24 to 48 hours of next week should reveal whether Friday's breakout is sustainable.

If this is the case, a rally toward the 134.50 resistance level appears likely.

However, if the USDJPY closes Monday or Tuesday below 130.60, especially 129.40, it would indicate further weakness.

But, for the time being, last week confirmed a USDJPY bullish breakout.

USDCAD has bounced right off the 1.3300 support level that I recently discussed.

That is the July 2021 trend line, which has been critical support since September 2022.

As long as USDCAD remains above 1.3350, I expect the pair to rise toward the October trend line at 1.3560.

And, as I mentioned in today's video, I think the bulls will defend 1.3350 to 1.3370 this week.

04-02-2023 07:02:35

The FOREX-Dollar Has Risen After a "Monster" Job Report.

The dollar rose on Friday after data showed that US employers added significantly more jobs in January than economists had predicted, potentially giving the Federal Reserve more leeway to continue raising interest rates.

According to the Labor Department's closely watched employment report, nonfarm payrolls increased by 517,000 jobs last month. The department revised December data to show 260,000 job gains rather than the previously reported 223,000.

After increasing by 0.4% in December, average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% in January. This reduced the year-on-year wage increase to 4.4% from 4.8% in December. Reuters polled economists predicted an increase of 185,000 jobs and a 4.3% increase in wages year on year.

The figure is a "monster number," according to Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York.

The dollar was last up 1.12% against a basket of currencies at 102.92, the highest since Jan. 12, and it is on track for its best day since Sept. 23.

The euro was down 0.98% to $1.08040. The dollar rose 1.82% against the Japanese yen to 131.20, its highest level since January 18 and on track for its best day since June 17.

Sterling fell 1.39% to $1.20550, its lowest level since January 6 and the worst day since December 15.

The unexpectedly strong payrolls figure reversed a Wednesday move in which traders increased bets that the US central bank would stop raising borrowing costs after a widely expected 25-basis-point increase in March.

"It looked like markets had the advantage after the Fed meeting - it was still pricing in a rate cut, they took interest rates down, and they took the dollar down, and now I think the Fed looks like they might have the upper hand again," Chandler said.

The Federal Reserve of the United States raised interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, saying it had reached a critical juncture in the fight against high inflation, prompting investors to price in a more dovish path in the future.

Fed officials said in December that they expected to raise the central bank's benchmark overnight interest rate above 5%, but that they would need to keep it in restrictive territory for some time to bring inflation down sustainably.

However, traders predicted that the rate would fall below 5% and that the Fed would cut rates in the second half of the year as the economy slowed.

Traders now expect the Federal Reserve's policy rate to peak at 5.03% in June, up from 4.88% on Thursday afternoon.

Fears of a larger economic downturn may also weigh on markets as rate hike expectations rise.

"Whenever we see these big numbers, especially with the headlines, the fear of the Fed returns with a vengeance because people are probably afraid that the Fed will push things even further than they have, risking a car crash rather than a soft landing," said Brian Jacobsen, senior investment strategist at Allspring Global Investments in Wisconsin.

The next major economic release in the United States that may provide additional clues to Fed policy is consumer price data for January, which is due on February 14.

04-02-2023 07:02:53

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03-02-2023 02:02:22

EUR/USD Failed Attempt to Break Through 1.10

It didn't quite turn out the way we expected. Particularly in the bond market. Fed Chair Powell and ECB Lagarde both passed up an opportunity to rally markets around their preferred monetary policy paths. Given the absolute level of the policy rate and the fact that core inflation is beginning to fall, we follow some of Powell's "caution" in the US.

Nonetheless, market pricing continues to be at odds with the Fed's intention to deliver multiple rate hikes (2 times 25 bps as envisioned in December dot plots). In the case of Europe, we are astounded by the bond rally seen yesterday, even as ECB Lagarde, initially reluctantly but later decisively, pushed back against the notion of reaching a potential peak rate (soon) after March and cutting rates soon after.

Core inflation in the eurozone is still rising, and the ECB wants to be certain that inflation is back at 2% - "not just for weeks or even months" - before reversing course. Our longer-term view on bonds, particularly European bonds, remains bearish, but we acknowledge that short-term momentum could be more neutral or even bullish, especially if there are some negative economic surprises.

The US payrolls report and non-manufacturing ISM in the US this afternoon could be a litmus test. The consensus forecast is for another strong job gain (+189k), with wages expected to maintain their monthly dynamic (0.3% M/M; down to 4.3% Y/Y). Markets have been focusing on the weaker parts of payrolls and household surveys in recent months, whether it was job growth or wage growth.

The services ISM is expected to rise slightly above the 50 boom/bust level. This week's stock market is soaring. Yesterday, the main European indices gained up to 2%, while the US performance ranged from flat (Dow) to +3.25%. (Nasdaq; following Meta earnings). Our longer-term outlook is similar to that of bond markets.

Disappointing earnings from other big tech names (Apple, Amazon, Alphabet) have already pushed US equity futures lower this morning. Despite a better-than-expected Caixin services PMI, China underperforms (52.9 from 48 vs 51 expected). In FX, we've seen a (so far) unsuccessful attempt by EUR/USD to break through 1.10. (close to 1.0910). A balance of weakness, with the euro eventually reversing its post-ECB bond outperformance.

German yields fell 12.7 basis points (30 basis points) to 22 basis points (7 basis points) yesterday, compared to a maximum of 2.8 basis points (5 basis points) for the US. 10-year yield spreads versus Germany have narrowed to around 9 basis points for countries such as Greece, Portugal, and Spain, with Italy outperforming (-19 bps).

The EUR/GBP broke through the 0.8897 January high as the Bank of England effectively suggested that the March rate hike will be the last (conditionally). Relative yield dynamics will work against the pound, which is also facing a bleak economic outlook. If confirmed, the break suggests a quick return to EUR/GBP 0.90+ levels. The previous year's high was 0.9266.

03-02-2023 08:02:07

FOREX-Euro and Pound Fall as Investors Predict the Rating Outlook

The euro fell against the dollar on Thursday after the European Central Bank raised interest rates by 50 basis points, as expected, while the Bank of England took a more dovish stance on inflation. 

The ECB has planned at least one more hike of the same magnitude for next month and has stated that it will then evaluate its monetary policy path. The Bank of England also raised interest rates by 50 basis points, abandoning its pledge to raise them "forcefully" if necessary, and stated that inflation had most likely peaked. "The ECB was more or less in line with expectations, and the Bank of England sounded a bit more dovish," said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst.

"You get the impression that central bankers are taking some solace from inflation moving in the right direction." The euro fell 0.70% on the day to $1.0913, while the pound fell 1.09% to $1.2240, its lowest level since January 17. The dollar rose 0.74% to 101.71 against a basket of currencies. Some ECB comments were interpreted as dovish, and it appears that "there is more of a global central bank pivot taking place," according to Mazen Issa, senior FX strategist at TD Securities in New York. "Central banks are in data-dependent mode, but that means they're no longer in control, and markets are currently leading the central banks."

On Wednesday, the dollar index fell to a nine-month low of 100.80 after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was interpreted as sounding more dovish about future monetary policy. The Federal Reserve of the United States said it had turned a key corner in the fight against high inflation, but that "victory" would still necessitate raising its benchmark overnight interest rate further and keeping it there at least until 2023. Markets reacted by increasing bets that the Fed will stop hiking after another 25 basis point increase in March, and then cut rates in the second half of the year.

"It certainly sounded like Powell flew the mission accomplished banner yesterday, casting doubt on whether or not their December dot plot is still viable," Issa said. Fed officials predicted in December that they would raise rates above 5%, but traders expect the benchmark rate to peak at 4.88% in June before falling to 4.40% by December. According to data released on Thursday, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, indicating that the labor market remained resilient despite higher borrowing costs and mounting concerns about a recession. Worker productivity in the United States increased faster than expected in the fourth quarter, resulting in a slowing of labor cost growth.

The major economic release in the United States this week will be Friday's employment report for January, which is expected to show that employers added 185,000 jobs in the month.

02-02-2023 02:02:41

BTC/USD Forex Forecast: The Calm Before the Blast

Bearish view

• Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 22,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 24,000.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bullish view

• Add a buy-stop at 23,500 and a take-profit at 25,000.
• Add a stop-loss at 22,000.

The price of bitcoin was slightly flat on Thursday morning as the market digested the Federal Reserve's latest action. The Fed's decision in its first meeting of the month was consistent with what most analysts expected. It raised rates by 0.25% for the first time in six meetings, putting the rate at 4.50% to 4.75%. The Bitcoin/USD pair was trading at 23,131, just a few points lower than the year-to-date high of 23,930.

4H Bitcoin price analysis

On the 4H chart, Bitcoin has been forming an alarming rising wedge pattern. Joining the highest peaks since January 23rd and the lowest points since January 13th yields this pattern. When the wedge approaches its confluence level, this pattern usually leads to a bearish breakout in price action analysis. This bearish breakout has already occurred, even though volume has been declining.

Meanwhile, trend indicators such as moving averages and Bollinger Bands have moved horizontally, indicating that the coin has experienced mild volatility. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures the rate of change of an asset, has formed a bearish divergence pattern, as shown below. A bearish divergence in technical analysis usually signals that the price of an asset will continue to fall.

The price of Bitcoin/USD has risen slightly above the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level. As a result, the four-hour chart suggests that the bearish trend will continue in the coming days. If this occurs, the reference point will be 22,000 psychological points (January 20 low).

A volume-supported rebound above 23,530, on the other hand, will indicate that there are still more buyers eager to push it above the resistance level of $24,000.

2H BTC/USD analysis

The BTC/USD price has remained flat over the last two trading sessions on the two-hour chart. It is consolidating between the regression trendline's lower and middle lines. Simultaneously, the Bitcoin Bullish Percent Index has reached an oversold level of 20.

As a result, in the near term, the pair is likely to consolidate between the regression channel at 22,735 and 23,680. A drop below the lower side of the channel indicates that the bears have won and will push the price to the next psychological level of 20,000. A recovery, on the other hand, could push it above the psychological level of 24,000.

02-02-2023 07:02:10

The Dollar Has Dropped to a Nine-month Low on Expectations of a Dovish Fed Pivot

The dollar fell to a nine-month low against a basket of currencies on Thursday, despite the Federal Reserve's pledge to keep raising interest rates, with markets betting that the resulting economic headwinds will force the Fed to cut rates as early as this year.

Following the Fed decision on Wednesday, the dollar index fell 1% to 101.08 points, its lowest level since April 2022. Dollar index futures fell even further, to 100.957 points.

The central bank raised rates by only 25 basis points (bps), citing recent progress toward lowering inflation. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that inflation in the country remained high and that he was unsure how much further interest rates would need to be raised to alleviate price pressures.

However, markets appeared to interpret this as a sign that the Fed was close to reaching its peak interest rate during this hiking cycle, with expectations for a potential dovish pivot by the Fed in the second half of the year increasing.

While the Fed is still expected to raise rates by 25 basis points in March, markets anticipate the Fed will then announce a moratorium on further rate hikes.

"With the economy losing momentum, the labor market showing tentative signs of cooling, and inflation on a downward path, we anticipate one final 25 basis point hike in March," ING analysts wrote in a note.

ING also pointed out that the Fed funds rate had finally risen above core PCE inflation, which was a "key metric" that the Fed had hoped to achieve. The investment bank now expects inflation to fall faster in the coming months. The core PCE price index in the United States was 4.4% in December, while the Fed's target rate is now 4.75%.

Traders in the interest rate swaps market appear to be pricing in at least a 50 basis point reduction in interest rates in the second half of the year, according to Bloomberg.

"Recessionary forces will then make the case for rate cuts later in the year," ING predicted, noting that economic growth, corporate funding, and the labor market are all expected to slow significantly further by the second half of 2023.

The possibility of a dovish shift weighed on the dollar. However, the dollar was weighed down by the strength of the euro and the British pound ahead of hawkish central bank meetings in both countries.

Both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points later on Thursday and to signal further increases.

01-02-2023 08:02:03

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Planning for New Buying Levels

The GBP/USD currency pair has been exposed to selling operations for four trading sessions in a row, with losses extending to the 1.2284 support level. It had settled around the 1.2320 level at the time of writing the analysis, as markets and investors awaited the reactions of the Federal Reserve Bank of America today and the Bank of England tomorrow Thursday. The former anticipates only a quarter-point increase, while the latter anticipates a half-point increase. The tone of their monetary policy statements will have a strong impact on the currency pair's performance.

The Bank of England is widely expected to raise interest rates by 50 basis points on Thursday, but analysts at one international investment bank predict that the increase will be smaller, causing sterling to weaken.

The Bank of England, for its part, raised interest rates in 2022, and the pound fell following the majority of decisions, confirming a trend that could last until 2023. The sterling's weakness was caused by one of two factors: 1) the bank raised interest rates less than expected, or 2) it met expectations for the size of the increase but provided pessimistic guidance and weak economic forecasts.

The International Commercial Bank anticipates that the bank will want to slow down to consider the impact of previous increases on mortgages, especially since a large number of fixed-rate mortgages are about to expire. "In addition, there is a very good chance that the bank will revise its long-term inflation expectations lower," the analyst added.

The pound/euro has begun the new week under pressure at 1.1370, and the Bank of England's decision and guidance will clash with that of the European Central Bank, which is also expected to deliver a 50 basis point hike on Thursday. Meanwhile, the pound-to-dollar exchange rate GBPUSD is at odds with the Federal Reserve's decision tonight, which is expected to be a 25 basis point lower hike.

As a result, the pound's future outlook will be determined this week by the decisions of at least three central banks.

The three risks are delivering on the interest rate front as expected for sterling, but the Bank of England is distancing itself with more pessimistic guidance on the outlook. The bank is likely to raise its economic forecast for 2022, but the outlook after that is likely to remain bleak.

"We will look at the possibility of an avalanche of real economy data and a possible delay in the consumer price index, starting from the second quarter of 2024 onwards, where it is likely to maintain a strong crack in policy through the Monetary Policy Committee," says Jeremy Stretch, forex currency analyst at CIBC. And CIBC anticipates another three-way split in the bank's monetary policy committee vote, resulting in a 25 basis point increase rather than the 50 basis point increase that analysts and the market had anticipated.

Today's Sterling vs. Dollar Expectations:

According to the trades on the chart for today's time frame, the most recent selling operations did not result in a bearish shift in the general direction of the sterling pair against the US dollar GBP/USD.

This will not happen unless we move towards support levels 1.2210 and 1.2120, respectively, and the last level is critical to expect psychological support 1.2000 as an important stage for the transformation.

On the other hand, if the dollar falls and the pound suffers a blow from the Bank of England's signals, bulls may see a good opportunity to return to the 1.2410 and 1.2530 resistance levels, respectively.

01-02-2023 02:02:38

Majors, Stocks, and Commodities Technical Analysis and Forecast

EUR/USD, "Euro vs. US Dollar"

The currency pair has finished a round of drop to 1.0802. Today, the market has developed a fresh corrective structure to 1.0868. At the moment, the market is establishing a consolidation range around this level. The range might extend to 1.0886. The price will then retreat to 1.0789, extending the wave to 1.0692. The objective is local. 

GBP/USD, "Great Britain Pound against US Dollar"

The currency pair has finished a round of drop to 1.2282. Today, a connection to 1.2340 is possible. Then it should fall to 1.2250. The objective is local.

"US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen," USD/JPY

The currency pair is still establishing a consolidation range of around 130.00, with no discernible movement. Today, a link to 130.87 should be followed. The price may then fall to 130.00 before rising to 131.40.

"US Dollar against Swiss Franc," USD/CHF

The currency pair has reached 0.9287 after completing a round of rise. Today, the market finished a wave of a drop to 0.9160. A consolidation range is now building around this level. With a downward escape, a drop to 0.9050 is possible. The pair may then rise to 0.9277 before continuing to rise to 0.9400. The objective is to keep things local.

"Australian Dollar vs. US Dollar," AUD/USD

The currency pair has completed a falling structure to 0.6984. Today, the market completed a growth connection to 0.7070. The market is currently creating a consolidation range around this level. With a downward escape, essentially a road down to 0.6898 should open up. First and foremost, the aim.

Brent

Brent continues to correct. At the time, a decline structure to 83.33 has been finished. Today, the market has done a growth link of 85.78. This growth structure might be extended to 86.15. Then a drop to 82.72 is possible. After then, a wave of expansion to 87.00 should begin. A breakout at this level should offer up a path to 90.30.

"Gold versus. US Dollar," XAU/USD

Gold has completed the first wave of drop structure to 1900.80. Today, the market has finished a growth structure to 1925.85. Around this level, a consolidation range should appear. The decreased structure might then continue till 1867.40. The objective is to keep things local.

S&P 500

The stock index has reached 3995.6 after completing the first round of drop. A link adjustment to 4078.0 should occur today. A drop to 3886.0 is predicted. The objective is to keep things local.

01-02-2023 06:02:04

FOREX-Wage Data Limits the Dollar's Gains ahead of the Fed's Rate Announcement.

The dollar dipped on Tuesday, giving up previous gains, as statistics revealed that labor expenses in the United States climbed less than expected in the fourth quarter, and before the Federal Reserve is set to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday.

The Employment Cost Index, the most comprehensive indicator of labor expenses, increased by 1.0% last quarter. This was the weakest increase since the fourth quarter of 2021, and it came after a 1.2% increase in the July-September period. Nonetheless, it is not expected to deter the US Federal Reserve from raising interest rates further.

"Despite coming in below forecasts, it's still a relatively robust print, which suggests the Fed will continue to sound hawkish," said Bipan Rai, the North American head of FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets in Toronto.

Other statistics released on Tuesday revealed that house price growth slowed significantly in November, with a 9.2% increase in the month. Fed funds futures traders expect the Fed's benchmark rate to reach 4.91% in June, up from 4.33% currently.

However, investors remain pessimistic about the US economy and believe the Fed will have to lower rates back to 4.48% by December. This is despite Fed officials emphasizing the need of keeping rates in restrictive territory for an extended length of time to reduce inflation.

"(Fed Chair Jerome) Powell and the FOMC will want to underline the fact that we are going to see higher rates for a little bit longer. "At this point, it's all about whether or not the market believes that narrative," Rai said.

The dollar index was recently down 0.21% versus a basket of currencies, closing at 102.03. It had previously reached a two-week high of 102.61, which experts said was likely due to repositioning towards month-end. In addition, the dollar is trading slightly above critical technical support against major currencies such as the euro.

The index is expected to lose 1.39% in January, after dropping 2.26% in December and 5.07% in November, its largest monthly loss since September 2010. The November losses were caused by predictions that the Fed would start reducing rate rises, which it did in December.

The index has declined after reaching a 20-year high of 114.78 on September 28. The euro rose 0.21% on the day to $1.0867, after dipping as low as $1.0802.

Data released on Tuesday indicated that the eurozone managed to avoid a recession in the last three months of 2022, despite sky-high energy costs, dwindling confidence, and increasing interest rates taking a toll on the economy that is expected to last into this year.

Both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are anticipated to raise interest rates by 50 basis points on Thursday.

The British pound dropped 0.16% versus the US dollar to $1.2329.

The dollar declined 0.24% to 130.12 yen versus the Japanese yen.

31-01-2023 08:01:02

Euro Forecast: USD Maintains Control of EUR/USD Price Action Despite Positive EZ Data

BACKDROP EUROPEAN FUNDAMENTAL

The eurozone got many major economic data prints today (see economic calendar below) but did not necessarily reflect the data via the EUR/USD currency pair. Although French inflation fell short of expectations, the actual amount of 6% represents an improvement over the December rate, while the German job market remained strong.

This sort of information would be anticipated to fuel hawkish bets for the forthcoming ECB meeting, but the trading session from Asia and throughout the European day appears to be risk-off. The USD has naturally benefited from this reluctance, but a hawkish bent to tomorrow's Fed meeting is also on the agenda.

A rate rise of 25 basis points is improbable, but the Fed's firm stance on attaining a peak rate of 5% by 2023 may be repeated, despite market pricing discounting their forecast. EZ GDP increased QoQ, but not sufficiently to give upward support for the Euro. However, tightening credit requirements in Q1 weighed on euro pricing. Borrowing by businesses and households is declining, which might indicate that the ECB's rate rises are finally taking effect.

US consumer confidence will round out the trading day later today, and while this is a big impact event, it shouldn't dissuade prices too much ahead of the Fed meeting tomorrow.

The EUR/USD daily chart shows price movement coming off the psychological resistance mark of 1.0900, with the euro losing ground versus the greenback for four days in a row (last seen in October 2022). Bearish/negative divergence is possible, with fading bullish momentum shown by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). revealing potential downside if the Fed acts aggressively tomorrow.

Resistance levels:

• 1.0936
  
• 1.0900

Support levels:

• 1.0774
  
• 0.8800
• 0.8769
  

31-01-2023 02:01:36

The pound is dropping velocity against the dollar, but EUR/GBP volatility remains

Cable fell further 0.4% to 1.235 during yesterday's session, confirming that the pound's advance versus the dollar in January may have peaked around the 1.240 price point.

For the time being, the pair has remained at 1.235, with a spinning-top candlestick pattern indicating a general atmosphere of hesitation among traders ahead of the UK, EU, and US central bank interest rate announcements due for the next two days.

Even though a dovish 25-basis-point (bps) rise from the Federal Reserve is widely predicted, the dollar seems well supported this week, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) rising 0.35% to 101.86 yesterday and rising further to 101.88 in this morning's opening hours.

One immediate consequence of the rate-hike cycle in the United States has been a dramatic increase in overnight federal funds borrowing as deposit withdrawals force banks to seek liquidity from other sources.

According to Bloomberg, the daily government funds borrowing reached a seven-year high of US$120 billion on January 27.

EUR/USD fell from an intraday high of 1.091 to conclude Monday 0.2% down at 1.084, with more losses expected this morning.

EUR/GBP concluded 0.2% higher at 87.84p on Monday, but traders pushed the pair down 10 pips to 87.74p today, making it the most volatile trading pair right now.

The UK consumer credit borrowing is due later this morning, according to the economic calendar. Spending increased dramatically in November in anticipation of the Christmas season, while December numbers are anticipated to reveal that consumers are beginning to reign down their spending.

Eurozone GDP growth will be revealed later, with year-on-year forecasts pointing to a 40 basis point decrease to 1.8% in the fourth quarter of 2022.

31-01-2023 07:01:09

Today in Forex: The US Dollar Perks From a Risk Averse Mood

What You Need to Take Care of on Tuesday, January 31:

The US Dollar advanced modestly at the start of the week, supported by a gloomy market mood. The US dollar maintains its positive bias ahead of the Asian opening, but caution reigns supreme as the macroeconomic calendar is packed with high-level events this week.

Australia will release December Retail Sales data early on Tuesday, which is expected to be 0.3% lower than the previous month. China will also release the NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs. The first is expected to rise from 47 in November to 49.7 in December, while services output is expected to rise from 41.6 to 51.

The US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the Bank of England will announce their monetary policy decisions on Wednesday and Thursday. Market participants are now speculating on a 25 basis point (bps) rate increase. A 50 basis point rate rise is completely factored in for the ECB, while the BoE is likely to raise its benchmark rate by 50 basis points.

Earlier in the day, a group of academics and business leaders encouraged the Bank of Japan to make its 2% inflation objective a long-term ambition. According to reports, the plan also emphasized the need for interest rates to grow more by economic fundamentals and to restore Japan's bond market function.

Haruhiko Kuroda, Governor of the Bank of Japan, remarked that the central bank's first mission is price stability, and he maintained that 2% inflation is achievable given wage growth and the present easy policy. USD/JPY fell to 129.19 but concluded the day at 130.50 due to widespread US Dollar demand.

EUR/USD briefly moved above 1.0900 before settling at 1.0840. The German economy increased at an annualized rate of 1.1% in the fourth quarter of 2022, falling short of predictions of 1.3%.

In addition, according to the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), Spanish inflation unexpectedly jumped by 5.8% year on year in January, raising concerns ahead of the ECB's monetary policy meeting later this week.

GBP/USD has fallen to 1.2340, while AUD/USD is trading at 0.7050. The USD/CAD pair has gained to the current price of 1.3390. Spot gold is now trading at roughly $1,922 per troy ounce. Crude oil prices have fallen dramatically, with WTI presently trading around $77.70 per barrel.

30-01-2023 08:01:02

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: Investors Are Anxious

In the short term, and based on the hourly chart, it appears that the USD / JPY currency pair is trading inside the confines of a cohesive triangle.

The Japanese yen excelled before last weekend and has continued to gain bullish fans in recent trade. With the Federal Reserve's announcement on a possibly aggressive US interest rate this week, the currency might suffer a setback. The bulls were unable to push the USD/JPY currency pair's price above the resistance level of 131.11. Following that, trading fell below the support level of 129.02 and ended the previous week's trades steady around the level of 129.83.

Japan's yen surged in trade on Friday after inflation in Tokyo jumped more than expected in January, a result largely interpreted as portending another move in national inflation rates when they are reported at the end of February. According to Christina Clifton, Commonwealth Bank of Australia's chief economist and FX analyst, "the high rise in the consumer price index in Tokyo for January (January) adds to the case of beginning the process of unwinding the extraordinarily liberal monetary policy."

Rising inflation and persistent uncertainty over the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) monetary policy are expected to counteract the customary negative impacts of the Bank's further quantitative easing adopted to sustain the yield curve management program, according to the experts. The Bank of Japan, for its part, maintained its vow to acquire an unlimited quantity of Japanese government bonds to enforce the 0.5% upper limit put on the 10-year rate as part of the yield curve management program, and intervened regularly throughout January to that end.

While the yen increased against all of its G20 rivals on Friday, it underperformed for the week as a whole, and it is known to be susceptible to recent rises in yield on soft US government bonds, as well as this week's Fed decision, which might be an upside risk to US borrowing prices. This comes after numerous Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members acknowledged the apparent slowdown in the US economy in public statements during January, but also cautioned that further rate rises are anticipated in the coming months.

While the United States has had no lack of negative economic news in recent weeks, the preliminary estimate of gross domestic product for the fourth quarter was far higher than many analysts predicted, and some official measures show the labor market is resilient. This increase in the monthly rate of inflation in December is one of the reasons why the Federal Reserve Bank may raise borrowing prices over the 5% level indicated by financial markets as a likely peak in the future months.

The USD/JPY pair's technical analysis:

• In the short term, and based on the hourly chart, it appears that the USD / JPY currency pair is trading inside the confines of a cohesive triangle.
• This suggests that market sentiment lacks a distinct directional tilt.
• As a result, bearish speculators will aim for profits at 129.154 or lower at the 128.437 support.
• The bulls, on the other side, would aim to make gains around 130.571 or higher at the 131.348 barriers.

Long term, and based on daily chart performance, it appears that the USD / JPY currency pair is trading inside the confines of a falling channel. This shows that market sentiment has a considerable long-term negative tendency. As a result, bearish speculators will want to extend the current downward trend into the 126.911 support or lower to the 123.991 support. The bulls, on the other side, will try for a comeback around 132.332 or higher at the 134.835 barriers.

30-01-2023 02:01:18

For the USD, GBP, and EUR, the Calm Before the Storm

On the currency markets today, there is a sense of quiet before the storm as traders prepare for a week of interest rate announcements that will reveal the central banks' monetary plans for 2023 throughout the US, UK, and EU.

After trading flat on Sunday, cable has stabilized below the 1.24 line and is down 0.2% this morning, while the US Dollar Index (DXY) is up approximately 0.13%.

In the longer term, DXY has lost roughly 3% from the intra-month high, a pattern that is unlikely to reverse if the Federal Reserve delivers a 25 basis point rate rise on Wednesday, as is very anticipated.

To complement the United States' northern neighbor Canada's surprise move last week, the Fed may even announce a suspension in rate rises entirely.

The Bank of England is expected to boost interest rates by 50 basis points on Wednesday, which should be a positive stimulus for the GBP/USD pair.

The EUR/USD pair scarcely moved throughout the Sunday session, a pattern that continued this morning, with the pair shedding a few pips to 1.086.

Today's Eurozone economic mood indices are predicted to indicate moderate gains in the manufacturing and service sectors.

After experiencing huge mood swings earlier this month, the EUR/GBP has steadied around 87.67p, despite scarcely registering any price activity in the last two trading days.

30-01-2023 07:01:34

The Dollar is Holding Steady Ahead of a Busy Central Bank Week

The US dollar strengthened on Monday, pulling away from an eight-month low ahead of a flurry of central bank meetings this week, including the Federal Reserve's, with traders looking for information on the direction of interest rate hikes.

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, climbed 0.03% to 101.92, easing away from the eight-month low of 101.50 sets last week.

However, it was on course for a fourth consecutive monthly loss of 1.5%, weighed down by views that the Fed was reaching the end of its rate-hike cycle and that interest rates would not have to climb as much as originally anticipated. The Sterling pound was up 0.01% at $1.24005, while the kiwi gained 0.09% to $0.6500.

Moves were muted ahead of policy meetings this week by the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of England (BoE).

"We'll range trade a little bit as the market attempts to judge how the central banks respond... I believe it'll be more about what they say than what they do for all three," said Rodrigo Catril, a currency strategist at National Australia Bank (NAB).

The Fed is largely predicted to raise rates by 25 basis points, while the ECB and BoE are expected to boost rates by 50 basis points apiece. The euro was recently 0.03% higher at $1.08705 and was on track for a monthly rise of about 1.5%, the fourth month in a row.

The euro has benefited from ECB policymakers' ongoing hawkish language and fading prospects of a major recession in the eurozone. In other news, the Australian dollar increased 0.11% to $0.71175, while the Japanese yen fell slightly to 129.94 per dollar.

Core consumer prices in Japan's capital rose at the quickest annual rate in 42 years in January, according to statistics released on Friday, putting the Bank of Japan under pressure to reduce its economic stimulus.

With China returning from its Lunar New Year break, the country's purchasing managers' index (PMI) data will be released on Tuesday. "The market will be watching... hoping not to be disappointed," said Catril of NAB.

"So far, the data from China, or the vibrations from China, support the notion that a positive reopening in terms of activity is probable." Lunar New Year vacation visits within China increased 74% over the previous year as officials lifted COVID-19 travel restrictions, according to state media on Saturday. The offshore yuan was recently trading at 6.7465 per dollar, up more than 0.1%.

29-01-2023 04:01:31

EUR/USD Forecast: January 29th - February 4th

The EUR/USD remains optimistic, but after reaching a level last week not seen since April 2022, the currency pair has reverted downward.

The EUR/USD pair entered the weekend near 1.08655. This appears to be a favorable result for speculators who have maintained a bullish outlook on the currency pair. Unfortunately for day traders, the EUR/USD has also given a high level of volatility while on an upward trend, and this was on the whole show last week. The EUR/USD reached a high of around 1.093000 on Thursday before falling on Friday.

The EUR/gradual USD's rise has provided consistent optimistic signals, but chasing the Forex pair is difficult if a trader is over-leveraged and bearish reversals push them out of their positions too rapidly. The approaching week promises to deliver quick outcomes that may be dynamic once more.

The Federal Reserve of the United States will deliver its Monetary Policy Statement on Wednesday, along with a 0.25% rate rise. To round off the trading action this week, the US employment report will be announced on Friday. It is also worth noting that the Bank of England will publish its interest rate decision on Thursday.

Speculators targeted and hit the EUR/USD 1.09000 ratio, however, it was not sustained

For some bullish traders, finishing the week at the 1.08655 ratio may appear to be a failure, but perspective is crucial. The highs achieved on Thursday were not seen since April of 2022, and the EUR/capacity USD's to flirt with levels over 1.09000 has not gone ignored. The currency pair's rise will never be one-way, and it would be foolhardy to pursue purchasing positions blindly. Traders must maintain a sense of reality.

Technically, the EUR/USD stays close to the 1.09000 level, and traders betting on this level are expected to be plenty. Last week's core economic statistics in the United States indicated that growth is slowing, and consumer spending showed signals of constraint on Friday.

On Wednesday of this week, the United States Federal Reserve will be a focal point

• The Federal Reserve of the United States is likely to raise interest rates by 0.25% on Wednesday, although many financial institutions anticipate a less aggressive interest rate stance.
• If the US Federal Reserve begins to show evidence that it recognizes the US economy is slowing and says that a more dovish interest rate policy will emerge in the medium term, the EUR/USD might strengthen.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook:

The EUR/USD speculative price range is 1.07800 to 1.09810.

Support levels in the EUR/USD have shown the potential to climb gradually. In terms of any big downward swings, the 1.08100 ratio presently appears to be a bottom rung for the currency pair. Certainly, the EUR/USD might breach this level and fall further, but from a speculative standpoint, the incremental gain in the Forex pair's worth is appealing.

However, traders should expect a high level of volatility this Wednesday, as well as a broadening of the EUR/USD range before and after the U.S. Fed's announcement. If the Fed disappoints financial institutions, the EUR/USD might find itself swiftly testing support levels.

Traders, on the other hand, are likely to expect the US Fed to declare it will be attentive to the US economy and will contemplate just raising interest rates by 0.25% increments, and that the US central bank may consider suspending rate rises in the mid-term.

If the Fed communicates that it believes the US economy is faltering, the EUR/USD will likely climb over 1.09000 and maybe sustain value above this level. Speculative positions are expected to be placed in the first few days of trading this week, and traders should ready themselves for quick price activity. If the 1.08700 level becomes a stable foundation and the 1.08900 level flirts frequently, a break of the 1.09000 level might fuel fresh bullish momentum and quickly wipe out last week's highs.

29-01-2023 08:01:09

Ethereum (ETH) Price Prediction 2025-2030: ETH is Still on the Rise

As ETH's dominance has grown, As ETH's dominance over other cryptocurrencies has increased in recent years, Ether's bullish setup against Bitcoin is evident. Bitcoin and Ethereum have both stabilized over the last week as the larger cryptocurrency market remains positive.

ETH reached a high of $1,600 last week before falling to $1,587.08 today. Its market value has climbed from $147 billion to $194 billion since last month, after briefly exceeding $200 billion a few days ago. As of press time, it had settled at $194 billion.

The value of Ethereum has lately dropped significantly, yet whales have been purchasing at each drop. Last week saw the fifth-largest accumulation day of the year, as ETH whale activity hit a new high. Because of the FTX downturn that occurred in November, Ethereum whales have accumulated.

It nearly touched the lows during the FTX collapse-driven meltdown of the cryptocurrency market, but it rapidly came back and was able to maintain above these levels as well. This reinforces the case because Ethereum has historically outperformed Bitcoin.

Given everything, buying Ethereum has to be a good long-term investment, right? The majority of advisors have optimistic forecasts for ETH. Furthermore, the vast majority of long-term Ethereum value forecasts are bullish.

Why are forecasts important?

Given Ethereum's recent meteoric rise, it's not surprising that investors are placing significant wagers on this cryptocurrency. Following a lengthy period of stasis in 2018 and 2019, Ethereum gained traction once the value of Bitcoin fell in 2020.

Surprisingly, even after the halving, a large portion of the cryptocurrency market remained dormant. Ethereum is one of the few that has gained traction quickly. By the end of 2021, Ethereum had grown by 200% from its 2017 highs.

Ethereum may see such a surge owing to several critical factors. One of them is an improvement to the Ethereum community, namely a transition to Ethereum 2.0. Another justification is the Ethereum tokenomics discussion. With the transition to Ethereum 2.0, ether tokenomics will become significantly more deflationary. As a result, there will be fewer tokens available on the market to meet increased demand. The ultimate conclusion might boost Ethereum's upward momentum sooner or later.

In this post, we'll take a quick look at the cryptocurrency market's most recent efficiency, paying special attention to market cap and quantity. The most well-known analysts' and platforms' forecasts will be summed at the end, along with a glance at the Fear & Greed Index to evaluate market mood.

Ethereum's worth, quantity, and everything in between

Around press time, Ethereum was trading at $1,591, having shown resistance in the preceding several weeks following the FTX disaster. Despite this, early investors have increased their capital year after year because of the high ROI.

Ether's spot market activity has also increased, with the cryptocurrency recently overtaking Bitcoin as the most traded coin on Coinbase.

Although it is difficult to anticipate the value of a dangerous cryptocurrency, most analysts agree that ETH will once more break the $4,000 barrier in 2022. According to Bloomberg Intelligence expert Mike McGlone's most recent projection, the value of Ethereum will end the year between $4,000 and $4,500.

Furthermore, according to a forecast published on August 1 by Kaiko, ETH's market share of purchasing and selling quantities will reach 50% parity with Bitcoin's for the first time in 2022.

According to Kaiko, ETH outperformed Bitcoin in July due to significant inflows into the spot and by-product markets. Most exchanges have witnessed this increase, which might indicate that buyers are returning. Furthermore, growth in the common commerce dimension is the exact opposite of what has been observed thus far in the 2022 downturn.

On August 2, the open interest (OI) in Deribit Ether Choices valued at $5.6 billion outpaced the OI in Bitcoin valued at $4.6 billion by 32%. This was the first time in history that ETH surpassed BTC in the Options market. The majority of cryptocurrency influencers are positive about Ethereum and expect it to reach new highs.

Because of the excitement around the merger, Ethereum has become the talk of the town. The second-largest crypto has surpassed the king of crypto to become the most in-demand coin. A quick divide of the number by the market capitalization of each crypto reveals that Ethereum's relative quantity is greater than Bitcoin's.

While the majority of the Ethereum community is working to implement the more environmentally friendly PoS model, a party has developed in support of a fork that would keep the energy-intensive PoW model.

The faction is typically made up of miners who are concerned about losing their investment in pricey mining instruments since an upgrade would render their business model worthless.

Binance has stated that inside the occasion of a fork that forms a brand new token, the ETH ticker should be reserved for the Ethereum PoS chain, adding that "withdrawals for the forked token shall be supported". Tether and Circle, two stablecoin projects, have both confirmed their support for the Ethereum PoS chain following the merger.

At the time this material was published, TradingView had the same perspective, and their technical analysis of the Ethereum value showed that it was a "Purchase" indicator for ETH.

28-01-2023 08:01:10

United States GDP Income and Expenditure Outlooks

The US economy grew by 2.1% in 2022 compared to 2021, following a 2.9% annualized quarter-over-quarter growth rate in the fourth quarter of the year. Economic growth slowed significantly this year compared to 2021 when it increased by 5.9% over 2020. Although consumption increased 2.1% in the fourth quarter of the year versus 2.3% in the third quarter, goods consumption rebounded from a 0.4% decline in the third quarter to a 1.1% increase in the fourth quarter of the year.

Meanwhile, gross private domestic investment increased by 1.4% in the fourth quarter after falling by 9.6% in the previous quarter. Nonresidential structure investment made up the gap in the fourth quarter, increasing by 0.4% after falling by 3.6% in the previous quarter. Importantly for the Federal Reserve and inflation, the GDP price index declined further in the fourth quarter, to 3.5% from 4.4% in the third quarter. The price index for GDP declined due to a slowing in the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE), which dropped to 3.2% during the quarter after growing at a rate of 4.3% the previous quarter.

This slowing in the PCE price index was caused by a 1.5% drop in the price of goods, with durable goods falling 3.1% and nondurable goods falling 0.5%. However, service costs continued to rise at a little faster rate than in the third quarter. Services prices rose 5.6% in the fourth quarter of the year, compared to 5.2% in the previous quarter.

Personal income and expenditures revealed that the American consumer spent all of their money in October and very little in the remaining months of the year. In reality, both nominal and real consumption expenditures (PCE) fell in November and December, despite a fairly good reading in October. That is, the whole fourth-quarter consumption happened in the first month of that quarter. This suggests that the New Year will begin on a negative note in terms of consumption expenditures, i.e., the American consumer.

The not-so-bad news was that disposable personal income, both nominal and real, remained positive throughout the quarter, implying that the personal savings rate, or savings as a percentage of disposable personal income, increased during the quarter after falling to its lowest level since 2005 in September of 2022. Personal savings climbed from 2.4% in September 2022 to 3.4% in December 2022. Even with the robust increase in the fourth quarter, today's data on personal income and expenditures provide greater insight into the health of the US economy at the end of 2022.

Before we get into what has occurred to egg pricing in the previous year or two, let's define some terms. Inflation is not assessed by the price of a single item. Inflation is defined as a widespread increase in the price level. Inflation does not imply that all prices are rising at the same time. Inflation indicates that some prices increased, while others decreased, and that some prices remained unchanged. However, when all prices were added up and averaged out across the economy, prices climbed overall.

Furthermore, certain prices are more significant than others since they demand a bigger proportion of money. That is, an increase in the price of pencils is less harmful than an increase in the price of rent, for example. At the same time, if the price of one thing rises too quickly, we may be able to avoid purchasing it so that increased prices do not affect us. However, there are some commodities that we must consume and cannot avoid, at least in the short to medium term.

28-01-2023 01:01:12

The US Dollar is Trading Mixed in Front of the Published of Report

Before the publication of December personal income, expenditure, and pricing statistics, the US dollar was mixed against its main trading partners early Friday, rising against European currencies but falling against the yen and Canadian dollar.

The Federal Reserve's favored inflation indicators, the overall and core PCE price indexes, will be the market's attention. A further slowing in these categories' year-over-year rates would go a long way toward confirming prevailing forecasts for a lesser 25 basis point rate hike at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting next week.

The final January University of Michigan attitude index, as well as December pending home sales data, will be revealed, followed by the Kansas City Fed's monthly services survey for January.

Federal Reserve officials will keep silent until after the FOMC meeting on January 31-February 1. A short recap of Thursday's foreign currency activities indicates that the EUR-USD declined to 1.0881 from 1.0891 at the Thursday US closing and 1.0902 at the same time Thursday morning.

According to figures released earlier Friday, EU money supply growth slowed in December, as did the rate of loan growth to firms. On February 2, the European Central Bank's monetary policy committee will convene, and it is likely to raise its benchmark interest rate by another 50 basis points.

GBP-USD declined to 1.2366 from 1.2419 at the US close on Thursday and 1.2394 at the same time the next day. There is no UK data on the program for Friday. The Bank of England's monetary policy committee will also convene on February 2 and is likely to raise its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points.

The USD-JPY fell to 129.9418 from 130.2256 at the US close on Thursday, although it remained somewhat higher than the 129.8842 level at the same time Thursday morning.

The Tokyo consumer price index, a barometer for overall Japanese consumer pricing data, increased faster year on year in January, according to statistics released tonight. The next meeting of the Bank of Japan is set for March 9-10.

The USD-CAD slipped to 1.3317 from 1.3322 at the US closing on Thursday and 1.3384 at the same time on Thursday morning. The Canadian budget balance for November is set to be announced today. Following the Bank of Canada's decision on Wednesday to raise its main rate by 25 basis points and then pause, the next meeting is planned for March 8.

28-01-2023 07:01:37

FOREX-Dollar Holds Gains on US Data; Traders Eye Fed Session Next Week

The dollar held slight gains versus the euro on Friday, despite data showing decreasing consumer spending and cooling inflation in the United States, and as investors awaited a spate of central bank meetings next week.

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US economic activity, fell 0.2% last month, according to the Commerce Department. The November data was revised downward, showing that expenditure fell 0.1% rather than rising 0.1% as first reported. Consumer expenditure was expected to fall 0.1%, according to economists surveyed by Reuters.

The Commerce Department announced that the Federal Reserve's favored inflation indicator, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, climbed 0.1% in December after rising 0.1% in November.

"US PCE came in very much as predicted and will have minimal influence on the Fed's impending decision," said Simon Harvey, head of FX Analysis at Monex Europe.

"Given the Fed's inclination for the length of restrictive monetary policy, we expect a slowdown in price pressures to result in the Fed raising rates to a terminal level of 5% by March," Harvey said.

Traders of futures contracts linked to the Fed's policy rate maintained bets on Friday that the US central bank will raise interest rates just one more after next week's widely anticipated quarter-point increase before pausing. 4.25% to 4.5% is the current goal range.

The euro was 0.17% down at $1.08725, although it was still close to the nine-month high of $1.09295 set on Monday. The common currency gained roughly 0.2% last week.

The dollar was 0.25% weaker against the yen, trading at 129.89 yen, as strong Tokyo inflation data fueled speculation that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will take a hawkish stance.

Consumer price inflation in Japan's capital reached a nearly 42-year high last month, putting pressure on the BOJ to withdraw assistance.

The focus now shifts to a flurry of central bank policy choices, with the Fed, European Central Bank, and Bank of England (BoE) all set to make rate decisions next week as they assess what policy tweaks may be needed to combat high inflation amid a challenging global economic backdrop.

"There is a lot of event risk on the horizon right now. Not necessarily in terms of rates for next week, but more of the forward guidance provided by central banks, "Harvey stated.

Sterling fell 0.12% to $1.2397 on market concerns that the British economy's slowing may compel the Bank of England to terminate its tightening cycle soon, weakening the pound in the short term.

Meanwhile, bitcoin was up 1.5% on the day at $23,337, on track to end the week up approximately 2.6%, it's the fourth straight weekly gain after significant losses caused by the high-profile collapse of the FTX crypto exchange.

27-01-2023 08:01:13

The PCE Price Index Falls, Putting More Pressure on the DXY.

Core PCE prices in the United States, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% month over month in December 2022, up from 0.2% the previous month and in line with market expectations. Prices for commodities rose by 4.6 percent, while prices for services rose by 5.2 percent. Food costs rose 11.2 percent, while energy prices rose 6.9 percent. The PCE price index grew 4.4 percent year on year, excluding food and energy. This is the smallest growth rate in 14 months. Today's PCE result may put more pressure on the dollar, as markets may interpret it as a warning that the Fed will decrease the pace of rate rises sooner.

The US economy continues to defy expectations, with good first unemployment claims and GDP numbers this week. Is it necessary for the US Federal Reserve to slow the rising cycle? This is the critical question going into next week's meeting. The data continues to point to the possibility of the Fed's promised "soft landing," but there are still reasons to be cautious. Looking at the meat of US statistics, there are indicators of a recession developing, with residential construction declining for the previous six months, industrial production falling for the past three months, and retail sales falling by 1% or more in both November and December.

The overall picture does not appear to be as bright as of late, with lackluster activity expected to hold the Fed in check. Despite the Fed's aggressive stance before the blackout period, markets have altered their forecasts for the Fed Funds Peak Rate in May 2023. Markets now price in a 56% chance that the Fed Funds rate will peak at 5% in May, up from 40.8% a month ago. While the likelihood of a high rate of more than 5% by December 2023 has dropped to 3.1% from 7.8% a month ago. As a result of these adjustments, the dollar index has struggled recently, remaining near multi-month lows.

The market's Reaction

Following the announcement of the data, the dollar index fell marginally, falling below the 102.00 barriers once more. Since hitting the range bottom yesterday at 101.50, the index has attempted to rebound before rallying higher.

We've been stuck in a range for the better part of a week, with neither yesterday's GDP nor today's PCE data inspiring a breakthrough. All attention will be on whether the Fed meeting can spark a breakout. Technically, the longer a pair remains rangebound and consolidating, the more volatile the breakout when it occurs; keep this in mind as we approach next week's risk events.

27-01-2023 02:01:40

The week ahead: Will the EUR USD reach cloud 9?

The world's most traded currency pair might hit a new 9-month high this week as markets assess the latest policy signals from the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.

To be clear, this will be a busy week that goes beyond important central bank decisions (the Bank of England is in action too). There will also be the largest tech profits and maybe an OPEC+ decision. In other words, the following significant economic data releases and events are poised to shake major asset classes this week:

Monday, January 30

• NZD: New Zealand December external trade
• CNH: Mainland China markets reopen after Lunar New Year
• EUR: Eurozone January economic confidence
• IMF publishes World Economic Outlook update

Tuesday, January 31

• JPY: Japan December unemployment, retail sales, industrial production
• AUD: Australia December retail sales
• CNH: China December industrial profits, January PMIs
• EUR: Eurozone 4Q GDP
• USD: US January consumer confidence
• Exxon Mobil earnings

Wednesday, February 1

• NZD: New Zealand 4Q unemployment
• CNH: China Caixin manufacturing PMI
• EUR: Eurozone January CPI and manufacturing PMI, December unemployment
• GBP: UK January manufacturing PMI
• Brent: OPEC+ meeting
• USD: Fed rate decision
• Meta earnings

Thursday, February 2

• EUR: European Central Bank rate decision
• GBP: Bank of England rate decision
• USD: US weekly initial jobless claims
• S&P 500: Earnings from Alphabet, Apple, and Amazon

Friday, February 3

• CNH: China January services/composite PMI
• USD: US nonfarm payrolls report

Here are the market expectations for the Fed meeting next week:

• On February 1st, the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps).
• The Fed will raise rates by another 25 basis points following next week's meeting, but no later than June 2023.
  
• These two increases would raise US interest rates from 4.5% to roughly 5%.
  
• The Fed will then hold its target rate near 5% for a time before lowering interest rates later this year.

On the ECB side of things:

• The ECB is projected to raise rates by 50 basis points next week, which is double the amount of the Fed's forthcoming move.
  
• The ECB is expected to boost rates by another 75 basis points before the end of the year.

In a nutshell:

• Fed = 50 basis point rises to remain (including next week's 25 basis point boost).
• ECB = 125 basis point rises remaining (including next week's 50 basis point boost)

The belief that the ECB will raise interest rates more aggressively than the Fed has propelled the EURUSD to its highest level since April 2022. However, the EURUSD is stabilizing close below a critical Fibonacci level - the 50% line from its January 2021 to September 2022 decline. The market activity shows that the next move for EURUSD may be heavily influenced by what the ECB or Fed announces next week.

Potential EURUSD scenarios:

• The EURUSD might be driven to "cloud 9" if the ECB maintains its hawkish approach while the Fed begins to consider stopping its rate rises (or at least markets do not believe any hawkish tones emanating out of the Fed next week).
  

Such a result is also expected to boost sentiment in other asset classes, including equities, gold, and perhaps cryptocurrency.

• However, if the Fed initiates a larger-than-expected 50bps raise next week, it will send a clear message that US interest rates will rise over the market-expected 5% objective this year.

Markets now believe the Fed's aggressive intentions (or a combo of the above factors)

... which might quickly reverse some of the EURUSD's recent gains.

Key support/resistance levels for EURUSD:

SUPPORT

• 1.0770 region: previous cycle low, June 2022 resistance zone
  
• 1.07365: mid-December cycle high
  
• 1.061 region: 38.2% Fib line and around where the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) resides
  

RESISTANCE

• 1.09426: 50% Fib line
  
• 1.112 – 1.114: March 2022 resistance
  
• 1.11848: end-March cycle high

Markets are projecting a 70% likelihood that EURUSD will move between the 1.07 - 1.105 range over the next week, while implied volatility is back to its year-to-date high, which saw EURUSD's recent run higher.

27-01-2023 08:01:23

Forex Today: The US Dollar Rises and Falls in Relation to US GDP

On Thursday, there was something for both bulls and bears following a barrage of data in the US that was generally positive but continues to indicate a weakening economic forecast with falling inflation, causing traders to continue to bet on a dovish Federal Reserve when it meets next week, February 1.

The US Commerce Department said that GDP rose at a faster-than-expected 2.9% annual pace in the fourth quarter of last year as consumers increased their expenditure on products.

Personal Consumption Expenditures growth fell to 2.1% year on year from 2.3% in the previous quarter, while the GDP price index decelerated to 3.5%, raising the probability of a dovish Fed. More data will be released on Friday, including Core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, which indicates that prices likely increased at a 0.3% MoM rate in December, while analysts at TD Securities say that a 0.4% increase cannot be discounted. According to them, the YoY rate likely decreased to 4.5%, implying that prices continue to decline but remain sticky at high levels.

The US Dollar index, DXY, climbed 0.246% to 102.18 from a low of 101.504, with futures pricing a 94.7% chance of a 25 basis point rise next Wednesday and the Fed's overnight rate at 4.45% by next December. This is lower than the 5.1% rate forecast by Fed policymakers for next year, based on market expectations of a rate drop. US Treasury rates increased as well, with the 10-year Treasury note yield jumping to 3.52%.

GBP/USD, which has dropped 0.1% this week, the first weekly fall since the week of December 23, provided two-way trading in the US session. The bears first cleaned out the Lonodon lows, but the price rebounded in and around the US data following a knee-jerk drop. The bears ultimately regained control around the day's highs, and the price plummeted 50 pips before rising again into the day. It was between 1.2344 and 1.2430. In a similar vein, the EUR/USD traded between 1.0850 and 1.0929.

USD/CAD fell from 1.3407 to 1.3303 and continued to decrease throughout the day as commodities performed well in a weak US dollar market. In Asia on Friday, the USD/JPY rose from 129.02 to 130.61 ahead of the Japan Consumer Price Index. Commodity markets remained buoyed by optimism about the resumption of Chinese demand and a continuously lower US dollar. WTI rose 1.1% to $81.2/bbl, maintaining its stronger tone. Gold dropped 0.8% to $1,930.8/oz. Following yesterday's volatility, Bitcoin held holding above $23,200 ahead of the US data, sliding a few hundred US dollars when the results were released before rebounding back over $23,000.

26-01-2023 08:01:03

Does a USDJPY Fall in 2023?

The Japanese yen had a difficult year last year. Over 2022, the USDJPY rose more than 30%, reaching a high of 150 in October. While expectations of weaker Fed rate rises dragged the pair below the 130 level in early 2023, doubts over the fate of the BOJ's yield control program drew the attention of Japanese assets in the middle of January. What is ahead for Japanese yen traders?

What impact does the BOJ have on the market?

The Bank of Japan is well-known for its cautious and steady monetary policy, which tries to stimulate economic growth while also fueling inflation. The BOJ employs two primary tools: the negative interest rate of -0.1% and yield-curve control, which permits the 10-year government bond to move within a predetermined range to achieve the 0% yield objective.

The Bank of Japan's yield-control policy, which was implemented in 2016, seeks to maintain yields low to boost consumer spending. As a result, inflation should rise. The Bank of Japan indicated in 2018 that the 10-year yield might rise or fall by 0.1% above or below zero. To stimulate market activity, the regulator expanded the band to 0.25% in each direction in March 2021.

In 2022, the BOJ lifted the cap to 0.5% above/below zero and expanded asset purchases in response to increasing pressure on the Bank to raise interest rates. It also increased speculation that the Bank may forsake its long-term interest rate objective. However, the Bank of England made no adjustments to monetary policy on January 18, causing the 10-year bond rate to fall to 0.38%.

In January, the Japanese yen fluctuated due to changes in market sentiment. The USDJPY plummeted over 14% at the start of the month but began to rise when the Bank announced the continuance of its easing monetary policy. Despite this, economists do not expect the Japanese yen will fall in value in the long run.

Factors that might boost the JPY

Many variables might influence the Japanese yen's long-term decline.

First, the central bank may be forced to intervene if inflation reaches 4% in December 2022. According to Bank of America, inflation might rise considerably beyond the market estimate (3% vs. 1.9%).

Another reason for the hawkish policy shift is the expiration of the tenure of BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda. Analysts are concerned that the BOJ will duplicate the Fed's transitional rhetoric and take aggressive actions too late.

If this is correct and the JPY strengthens, the USDJPY may go below the 127 mark. In such a situation, sellers should set their sights on 122.30 and 114.70. After the retest of the 50-day SMA at 133.50, selling pressure may escalate.

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Conclusion

The Japanese yen has suffered as a result of recent monetary policy moves. However, strong inflation and a change in leadership at the Bank of Japan may cause the USDJPY to go below 120.

26-01-2023 01:01:40

GBP/USD Forex Signal: Still Under Pressure of Dovish BoE Forecast

Bearish view

• Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.2200.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.2450.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bullish view

• Set a buy-stop at 1.2410 and stop-loss at 1.2525.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.2325.

The GBP/USD exchange rate recovered most of the losses it suffered on Wednesday, despite rising expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) may cut interest rates later this year. After falling to a weekly low of 1.2263 during the UK session, it climbed to 1.2400 during the American session.

Rate cuts by the Bank of England are becoming more popular

The GBP/USD exchange rate climbed marginally after futures data revealed that the Bank of England will need to decrease interest rates in the fourth quarter. According to interest rate swap statistics, investors expect the bank to raise rates by 50 basis points in February, followed by 0.25% in March. This pattern will continue until the Fed decreases interest rates in the final three meetings of the year.

This view is bolstered by the fact that the British economy is failing and may remain in recession for some time. On Wednesday, statistics indicated that factory price inflation had fallen to its lowest level in over a year, while flash manufacturing and services PMIs remained in the negative territory.

As a result, with inflation decreasing, many believe the BoE has the incentive to reduce rates to avoid a painful landing.

The fourth-quarter US GDP report will be the significant factor influencing the GBP/USD. Economists predict the economy will rise by 2.6% in the fourth quarter, following a 3.2% increase in the previous quarter. They also expect the GDP price index to decline from 4.4% to 3.3% in the same period.

These figures are significant since they will represent the initial estimations. Stronger-than-expected data will allow the Fed to continue its hawkish stance at its meeting next week. The latest durable goods order data, first unemployment claims, and new home sales will also be released in the United States.

Forecast for the GBP/USD

After forming a series of bearish patterns, the GBP/USD made a negative breakthrough this week. On January 23rd, for example, it formed a shooting star pattern. This is one of the most reliable bearish candlestick patterns in the market. It also produced a double-top pattern, the upper side of which was at 1.2445. In addition, a rising wedge developed.

As a result, the present rally is most likely part of the break and retest pattern, which is typically indicative of a bearish continuation. If it succeeds, the psychological level of 1.2200 will be important to monitor.

26-01-2023 07:01:33

Forex Today: The Countdown to This Week's and Next Week's Major Events Will Begin

Here's what you need to know about Thursday, January 26:

As we approach the end of the month and the Federal Reserve/European Central Bank meetings, the clock is ticking. A storm is brewing in the FX market, and Thursday's data events will be crucial in this respect.

It was slightly muted in some pairs, but active in others, as investors and traders prepared for today's spate of critical economic data that will contribute to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on February 1.

The US Commerce Department is slated to issue its preliminary fourth-quarter GDP estimates at the same time as the country's Core PCE prices, likely accelerating to a 0.3% moM pace in December, while a 0.4% growth cannot be ruled out, according to analysts at TD Securities.

"The year-on-year pace is likely to have slowed to 4.5%, indicating that prices continue to moderate but remain sticky at high levels," the experts contended. "We also expect Gross Domestic Product growth to have remained solid in Q4, producing another above-trend rise," the analyst added to the growth statistics. Consumer and inventory performance was likely supportive to growth."

WIRP implies that a 25 basis point increase on February 1 is completely priced in, with less than a 5% chance of a greater 50 basis point shift. Another 25 basis point boost on March 22 is around 80% priced in, whereas a previous 25 basis point hike in Q2 is only 35% priced in.

The dovish view caused the US Dollar to decline against the euro once more on Wednesday, but markets did not follow suit, as EUR/USD remained trapped in a 1.0875 / 1.0923 range for the day.

There was some better action in USD/JPY elsewhere. The previous day's finish provided the bear's fuel to continue selling against pullbacks, denying the bulls room into the top pattern formed earlier in the week. USD/JPY plummeted from a high of 130.58 to a new low of 129.26 as New York dealers got online, extending London's supply. This created excellent trading possibilities targeting past support structures on the way down to 129.50 and eventually the 129.20s.

USD/CAD was another pair that provided traders with possibilities of two-way movement on the day of the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision. The Bank of Canada lifted the main interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.5%, as predicted. The central banks stated in the statement that rates will likely remain at this level as they examine the effect of recent policy adjustments.

As a result, the Loonie fell across the board, but it quickly found buyers as Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem issued remarks on the policy outlook and reacted to questions, indicating that additional raises are not ruled out and are data-dependent. The USD/CAD exchange rate increased from 1.3365 to 1.3426. In a 50% mean reversion of the BoC rise, it then drew back into a previous support structure in the 1.3375s.

The Australian Dollar and Kiwi were higher on Wednesday following shockingly hot inflation data for Australia. As for yesterday's Q4 CPI inflation from NZ, analysts at ANZ Bank believe that it "was substantially better beneath the hood than the RBNZ feared at the time of the hawkish November MPS."

The New Zealand dollar traded between 0.6450 and 0.6504, while the Australian dollar moved between 0.7032 and 0.7122 (a crucial mark for the day ahead that defends 0.7150). In other news, the US 10-year yield fell 1 basis point to 3.45%, and WTI fell 0.1% to USD80/bbl. Gold rose 0.8% to $1940.4 per ounce.

25-01-2023 08:01:08

EUR/CHF: The Euro-Swiss Pair is Moving into the Weekly Blue Box

Now we will look at the weekly chart of the EURCHF: Euro Swiss FX pair. This cross is a logical combination of two pairs: EURUSD and USDCHF. Although both dollar-linked pairings are significantly more liquid, the EURCHF has its personality. Indeed, it creates a nice double-three structure from the January 2015 lows and so matches Fibonacci extension levels.

The market has delivered a short-term bounce and correction that has persisted as a broader 7-swing pattern. In this article, we examine the EURCHF trend during the last eight years and present a perspective with objectives for the next 3-5 years.

EUR/CHF weekly Elliott Wave Analysis

The weekly chart below depicts the price behavior of the EURCHF cross-ratio. The pair has built a cycle higher in red wave x of a cycle degree from the lows of January 2015. It reached a high of 1.2005 in April of this year. The advance is an Elliott wave zigzag pattern with three swings of correction. In general, the correction may be over within three swings. However, unlike stocks, FX is a range-bound market. As a result, the latter can also trend in corrective sequences.

A correction down in wave x has unfolded from the April 2018 highs as a double three pattern with a 3- 3-3 structure. First, wave ((W)) concluded in May 2020 with a low of 1.0492. Then, in March 2021, a connection in wave ((X)) printed a lower high at 1.1151. Wave ((Y)) has since formed three further swings downward.

As a result, the blue wave (A) of the black wave ((Y)) has reached the 1.0208- 0.9952 intermediary range, which corresponds to the 0.618-0.786 extension area. The last swing in blue wave (C) of black wave ((Y)) has reached 0.9626-0.8684 complete extension area after a bounce in wave (B). A powerful response higher can be noticed from that place. The bottom at 0.9407 lows is now anticipated to represent the conclusion of the whole cycle correction from January 2015 lows.

EURCHF may be at the early stages of a new cycle in red wave y as of the September 2022 lows. While trading above the 0.9407 lows, the pair can hit the 1.2811-1.4914 range in three swings. As a result, the intermediate zone 1.1512-1.2083 should give medium-term resistance.

25-01-2023 04:01:54

As Risk Remains on the Defensive, US Futures Drip Lower

This comes as technology continues to lead the downturn, with Nasdaq futures presently down 1.2% and Dow futures down 0.6%. The dip is also weighing on European markets, with the DAX and CAC 40 both down 0.6% on the day.

There isn't much in European morning trade to blame for the drop, but it comes after Microsoft's declining sales prediction earlier in the day, as well as higher CPI data from Australia and New Zealand - which may make markets more suspicious of the peak inflation thesis.

The dollar is somewhat stronger presently, with the AUD/USD trading at 0.7080, down from 0.7110 earlier. GBP/USD is also down 0.3% at 1.2285, hovering near the day's lows.

25-01-2023 12:01:20

EUR/USD Forex Signal: Currently Stuck in a Tight Range

Bullish view

• Buy the EUR/USD pair and add a take-profit at 1.1200.
• Set a sell-stop at 1.0800.
• Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bearish view

• Set a sell-stop at 1.0830 and a take-profit at 1.0700.
• Add a stop-loss at 1.0950.

Following the release of dismal economic statistics, investors proceeded to read the tea leaves of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB). The EUR/USD exchange rate has been locked around 1.0881 for the majority of this week. This price is around 3.86% higher than 2023 low.

Business activity in the EU and the US

According to data released on Tuesday, corporate activity in Europe and the United States is still under pressure this year. Both nations' manufacturing and services PMIs stayed below 50 in January, indicating that they are currently in a contractionary condition.

In Europe, the manufacturing PMI was 48.8, up from 49.8 the previous month. The composite PMs in France and Germany were 49 and 49.7, respectively. On the plus side, these figures suggested that commercial activity in the region was improving, aided by comparatively cheap natural gas costs. Gas prices have dropped to their lowest level in over two years.

Business activity in the United States remained subdued, with manufacturing and services PMI numbers falling below 50. These figures backed up what we've seen in recent weeks when some of the country's largest corporations announced massive layoffs. The multinational corporation 3M lay off nearly 2,500 people.

Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms have also laid off thousands of employees. Rate rises will continue, according to ECB and Fed officials. Lael Brainard, the Fed Vice Chair, has stated that the bank will continue to raise rates until there is sufficient evidence that inflation is declining. The ECB's Chief Economist, Philip Lane, held the same opinion.

Forecast for the EUR/USD

In recent months, the EUR/USD exchange rate has been steadily rising. On January 12, it managed to break through 1.0740. This was an important level since it was the upper half of the rising triangle pattern depicted in red. It has been above this level for about two weeks. The incredible oscillator has passed through the neutral point.

As a result, we may estimate that the pair has a greater upside in the short term by calculating the distance between the hypotenuse and the top side of the triangle. More advances are expected to push the pair up to the important milestone of 1.1050.

25-01-2023 07:01:47

Aussie Rises, Kiwi Slumps Amidst Inflation Data

The Australian dollar rose to a more than five-month high on Wednesday after inflation data came in hotter than expected, while the kiwi fell after New Zealand's fourth-quarter inflation grew less than predicted, according to the central bank.

The euro stayed at a nine-month high versus the dollar, as traders assessed a brighter eurozone economic forecast against rising concerns of a U.S. recession. The Australian dollar gained 0.66% to $0.7092, its highest level since August, after a surprise rise in inflation to a 33-year high last quarter strengthened the argument for the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep hiking interest rates.

Meanwhile, the New Zealand dollar fell roughly 0.6% to $0.6469 as annual inflation of 7.2% in the fourth quarter fell short of the central bank's 7.5% projection. "The key message we're taking from it is that we believe we've seen the worst of inflation now and that inflation has peaked," said Jarrod Kerr, Kiwibank's chief economist.

"We expect the cash rate in New Zealand will peak at 5%, not 5.5%, as the Reserve Bank (of New Zealand) has told us, and rates markets are reacting to that shift in outlook." In other currencies, the euro held steady at $1.0888, close to Monday's nine-month high of $1.0927, underpinned by a surprisingly strong eurozone economy and hawkish rhetoric from European Central Bank (ECB) officials.

Data released on Tuesday revealed that eurozone economic activity returned to moderate growth in January, indicating that the bloc's slowdown may not be as severe as previously thought. Expectations of further ECB rate hikes also boosted mood. Policymakers are committed to containing inflation, but they disagree on the magnitude of any movements after February's projected half-point increase.

In the United States, a bleaker picture is emerging as symptoms of an economic downturn emerge as a result of the Federal Reserve's dramatic rate rises last year. Business activity in the United States fell for the seventh consecutive month in January, while the decline slowed in both the manufacturing and services sectors for the first time since September.

The US dollar index rose 0.01% against a basket of currencies to 101.92, not far from last week's almost eight-month low of 101.51. "(The data) reinforces that, for one thing, Europe's resilience... and the issues they've had in terms of energy, have not been as devastating as some had thought," said Rodrigo Catril, a currency strategist at National Australia Bank.

The British pound was 0.15% to $1.2322, while the Japanese yen was last worth 130.24 per dollar.

24-01-2023 10:01:07

The Dollar Swelled After Data Showed a Brighter Forecast for US Business Activity

The dollar climbed against the euro on Tuesday as statistics revealed that US corporate activity contracted for the seventh consecutive month in January, although there were hints that the decline was slowing.

While business activity in the United States fell in January, the decline in both the manufacturing and service sectors softened for the first time since September, and company confidence increased as the new year began.

"It just appears to be another piece of evidence demonstrating what the Fed has been preaching: the economy is sturdy enough to withstand more rises," said Juan Perez, director of trading at Monex USA in Washington.

Fed fund futures anticipate only two more quarter-point rate rises to a peak of roughly 5% by June before the Fed begins lowering rates later in the year. The Federal Reserve has stated that it still has 75 basis point hikes in the works.

"It is apparent from PMIs that the Fed has stifled expansion, but the economy has not suffered as many predicted," Perez added.

The dollar extended its recovery versus the euro, but it remained close to 9-month lows set the day before. The euro was 0.17% weaker at $1.0852, barely shy of Monday's 9-month peak of $1.0927.

The euro remained supported throughout the day as eurozone statistics on Tuesday confirmed that the economy was weathering a winter of high pricing pressures pretty well, according to economists.

According to surveys, eurozone business activity unexpectedly returned to small growth in January, while service-sector activity in Germany rose for the first time since June, despite persistent pricing pressures.

A stronger economy may allow the ECB to hike interest rates more aggressively to combat inflation.

"There is enough in there to secure another 50 basis point hike from the ECB," said Michael Brown, market strategist at TraderX.

The statistics on US economic activity helped push the dollar to a near one-week high versus the yen. The US dollar was recently up 0.03% to 130.7 yen.

The dollar sank to as low as 127.215 yen last week, its lowest level since May, ahead of a Bank of Japan policy review in which investors expected the central bank to announce the end of its stimulus program. The BOJ, on the other hand, kept policy unaltered, providing some relief to the dollar.

The British pound was one of the worst-performing major currencies versus the dollar, sliding 0.71% on the day to $1.2288 after a poll revealed that private-sector economic activity in the United Kingdom declined at the sharpest rate in two years in January.

"In the near term, we expect sterling to begin underperforming surrounding European currencies as economic data reveals expanding growth differentials," said Simon Harvey, head of FX Analysis at Monex Europe.

Meanwhile, bitcoin barely changed on the day at $22,878, having risen by almost a third in value since early January as investors recovered from the high-profile collapse of the FTX crypto exchange.

24-01-2023 03:01:58

Positive US Fed Rate Forecast Boosts Risk Viewpoint

Asian equities climbed on Tuesday, following Wall Street's strong indications overnight, as growth sectors appeared appealing ahead of key tech reports. Rising prospects for a less aggressive Federal Reserve boosted risk appetite, attracting investors to the equities market. Markets in mainland China and Taiwan, on the other hand, remain closed for the Lunar New Year vacation and will resume trade on January 30. After closing higher in the previous session, European futures are pointing to a favorable beginning this morning, which might trickle down to Wall Street later today.

In the currency market, the dollar fell slightly, while the euro remains below 1.09 following yesterday's failed breakthrough attempt. Oil bulls appear to be gaining momentum as China's economy reopens, whilst gold stays supported by US recession worries and predictions of fewer rate hikes in 2023.

The following three days will be dramatic for equities markets due to corporate earnings, with Microsoft reporting after the bell today and Tesla reporting late Wednesday. It's also a data-heavy week, with European and US economic reports in the spotlight, including PMI surveys today and US fourth-quarter GDP on Thursday. In terms of central bank meetings, all eyes will be on tomorrow's Bank of Canada rate decision, which is likely to result in a 25-basis-point rate rise.

Is the EURUSD preparing for a breakout?

Because of crucial economic data and comments from financial giants, the EURUSD might have a tumultuous week.

Monetary policy conversations between officials at the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank continue, with attention increasingly focused on their policy meetings next week. On the one hand, a lower dollar, strong inflation in the Eurozone, and a hawkish ECB continue to support the euro. On the other hand, persistent hints of slowing inflation in the United States have fanned speculation of a less aggressive Federal Reserve. The Fed-ECB monetary policy difference is closing, which might mean more upside for the already optimistic EURUSD.

Not only will the Eurozone and US January PMIs be closely watched today, but ECB President Lagarde's speech may also have an impact on the currency pair. On the technical front, prices stay optimistic on the daily charts, with resistance at 1.09. A strong breakout and daily close above this level might indicate a move toward the next important level of interest at 1.12.

GBPUSD in the Vogue

The GBPUSD had a rough day yesterday, with values bouncing in a range of slightly around 1.24. Nonetheless, the prognosis on the daily charts remains optimistic thanks to the recent string of higher highs and lower lows. The GBPUSD might see some movement this morning as a result of the UK and US January PMIs. Bulls, on the other hand, remain in control, with support slightly above 1.23. If the currency pair can go past 1.24, an ascent toward the 1.26 zone might become a possibility. Prices might fall back below 1.2170 if the rally loses momentum and falls below 1.23.

Gold in the spotlight

Gold bulls continue to be buoyed by worries of a US recession and forecasts of a less aggressive Federal Reserve. The precious metal is undoubtedly on a roll, with five straight weekly increases, and might continue to rise provided the underlying factors stay constant. A lower dollar and bad US economic statistics may increase demand for gold in the coming days. Looking at the technical picture, prices are still optimistic, hitting new 9-month highs this morning and perhaps testing $1950 and higher.

24-01-2023 07:01:50

How long until the prospect of a US recession returns to the market's spotlight? 

1. In December, its Leading Economic Index fell 1.0%.

2. The November reading was revised downward to 1.1%.

3. The December drop beat all 22 estimates in a Reuters survey of experts, which had a median expectation of a 0.7% drop.

4. This is the tenth consecutive month of rain.

5. The LEI is currently down 4.2% in the six months from June to December 2022. This is a substantially faster pace of decline than the previous six-month period's 1.9% shrinkage (December 2021–June 2022)

6. "The US LEI declined dramatically again in December, signaling a near-term recession for the US economy," stated Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economics at The Conference Board. "Leading indicators showed a widespread weakening in December, indicating that circumstances in labor markets, manufacturing, home building, and financial markets may deteriorate in the coming months. Meanwhile, the coincident economic index (CEI) has not deteriorated as much as the LEI since labor market indicators (employment and personal income) has remained strong. Nonetheless, industrial production, a component of the CEI, dropped for the third month in a row. Overall economic activity is expected to fall in the next quarter before rebounding in the fourth quarter of 2023."

23-01-2023 08:01:36

EUR/USD Mid-Day Forecast

The EUR/USD falls slightly after reaching 1.0925 but remains well above the 1.0765 support level. The intraday bias is still to the upside. The current advance from 0.9534 should aim for the 61.8% prediction of 0.9630 to 1.0733 from 1.0482 to 1.1164 shortly. On the downside, a break of 1.0765 support should now suggest short-term topping and a return to the downward for the 55-day EMA (now at 1.0544).

In the grand scheme of things, the present development indicates that the rebound from the 0.9534 low (2022 low) is a medium-term uptrend rather than a correction. The next target is the 61.8% retracement of the 1.2348 (2021 high) to 0.9534 at 1.1273. As long as 1.0482 support persists, this will be the preferred scenario.

23-01-2023 01:01:18

Despite a cautious market attitude, the US dollar is struggling to recover

The US Dollar began the new week under moderate negative pressure, with the US Dollar Index falling below 102.00 during Asian trading hours on Monday. Following Friday's strong rally, the market attitude appears to have turned cautious, with US stock index futures trading slightly lower. At the same time, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield remains just below 3.5%.

Later in the afternoon, the Bundesbank of Germany will release its monthly report, and the European Commission will release the preliminary Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index. The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's National Activity Index for December will be included on the US economic calendar.

Nonetheless, market activity remained sluggish due to low trade volumes over the Chinese New Year holiday. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) issued the minutes of its December monetary policy meeting during the Asian session.

According to the magazine, several members stated that the BoJ should restate and clarify that the yield band's expansion was not a move aimed at exiting the ultra-easy policy. The USD/JPY pair sustained its recent advances and was last seen trading in positive territory at about 130.00.

As the 10-year US Treasury note yield increased by over 3% on Friday, gold struggled to maintain its upward momentum heading into the weekend. XAU/USD closed the day slightly lower after reaching a multi-month high of $1,937. At the time of publication, the pair was trading in a narrow range of over $1,920.

The EUR/USD gained traction to begin the week, reaching a high over 1.0900 for the first time since mid-April before easing somewhat in the early European morning. Over the weekend, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member and Austrian central bank Governor Olli Rehn stated that the ECB had grounds for "substantial interest rate rises" this winter and spring. Meanwhile, according to the results of a recent Reuters poll, the ECB is predicted to opt for a 50 basis point (bps) rise at its February monetary policy meeting, with the policy rate expected to reach 3.25% by mid-year.

During Asian trading hours on Monday, GBP/USD rose to 1.2450 before reversing much of its day's gains and falling to 1.2400. In the absence of high-impact data releases, risk sentiment and the valuation of the US Dollar may continue to dictate the pair's movement. S&P Global will issue preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI data for Australia in the early session on Tuesday. Following last week's tumultuous trading, the AUD/USD is trading just around 0.7000 early Monday.

The USD/CAD plummeted substantially on Friday, finishing the week below 1.3400. At roughly 1.3380 in the European morning, the pair remains calm. Later in the afternoon, Statistics Canada will issue the New Housing Price Index data for December, which is predicted to be -0.2%.

Bitcoin surpassed $23,000 for the first time since August on Saturday, but it failed to maintain its positive momentum. Following Sunday's tumultuous movement, BTC/USD appears to have entered a consolidation period below $23,000 early Monday. Ethereum gained about 5% last week, marking the sixth consecutive week of increases. To begin the week, ETH/USD remains just above $1,600.

23-01-2023 07:01:37

This Week: ECB vs Fed, EUR/USD Expecting Breakout

FORECAST OF EURO FUNDAMENTALS

The euro finished last week well, edging closer to the 1.09 resistance level. The European Central Bank (ECB) is now leading the way against the Federal Reserve in a struggle amongst central bank speakers to retain their credibility and stick to a fairly hawkish narrative. Markets are practically seeing through Fed talk of raising the 2023 terminal rate to 5% by focusing on worsening economic indicators from the United States. However, with so many Fed officials presenting a unified front about actually getting inflation down to its goal level, it may be stupid to do so.

The euro's support has been mostly driven by the dollar's decline, but growing inflation in the eurozone and ECB President Christine Lagarde's a hard stance against inflation. She voiced worry that China's re-opening will lead to higher energy costs in 2023, and the ECB will continue to raise interest rates to keep inflation at 2%. This rapidly dispelled any dovish chatter and might be repeated this week, when Lagarde and other ECB officials are slated to speak. With recessionary worries abounding, there is a danger that increasing too quickly may harm the area, but as things stand, it is almost probable that the February rate decision will result in a 50bps increase.

The week ahead appears to be tilted toward the United States, but German data is a wonderful gauge for the eurozone and might boost EZ optimism if real data match predictions. Softer data in the United States would seriously stress Fed hawks, possibly leading to a leg down for the greenback. Durable goods orders are virtually surely going to rise, with Boeing receiving a big flood of orders, while GDP is expected to grow in Q4 2022. Core PCE will also be scrutinized for signs of further inflationary easing. Michigan consumer sentiment data concludes the week, and forecasts predict a significant boost in consumer confidence, which might impact the EUR/USD if realized.

The daily EUR/USD price action shows yet another consolidatory rectangle pattern (pink), indicating market uncertainty, although a breakthrough is imminent. The data for next week may precipitate this move, and a daily candle closure above or below rectangle resistance/support may result in a short-term directional bias. Given that the euro is approaching overbought levels, I don't expect much more big upside (if any) in the near term, and the pair might fall quickly even if bulls get it up to 1.1000.

Resistance levels:

1.1000

1.0936

1.0900

Support levels:

1.0800

1.0774

1.0736

Conclusion

According to IGCS, retail traders are now SHORT on EUR/USD, with 67% of traders holding short positions (as of this writing). We normally adopt a contrarian approach to crowd mood at Fxedeal; but, recent shifts in long and short positions have resulted in a short-term mixed disposition.

22-01-2023 06:01:50

Why did Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana all rise on Saturday?

Weekends have recently proven beneficial to the bitcoin market, and today is no exception. Following a surge in values last Saturday, the trend has been replicated this weekend, with green dominating the market.

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) was up 8.6% in the previous 24 hours as of 9:00 a.m. ET, Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) was up 5.9%, and Solana (CRYPTO: SOL) was up 19%. These gains have slowed slightly, and the tokens are currently up 5.5%, 2%, and 6.9% in the last day, respectively.

So, what now?

The economic and monetary background is the macro driver of the crypto rise. Recent statistics suggest that inflationary pressures are receding, and the Federal Reserve is expected to pause interest rate rises in the coming months. Earnings season has now begun, and the financial industry has had solid results. As a result, investors are returning to higher-risk assets such as cryptocurrency.

On Thursday night, the long-awaited bankruptcy of crypto company Genesis occurred. This is undoubtedly negative for crypto's exposure, but it hasn't prompted much alarm within the sector because withdrawals have been frozen since November.

The next shoe to drop might be Genesis' parent firm, Digital Currency Group (DCG), which has its financial concerns due to illiquid assets and losses from the bankruptcies of FTX and Three Arrows Capital.

Investors value predictability, and while Genesis' bankruptcy is bad for the sector, it does provide greater transparency. We are also witnessing fewer spillover consequences from these bankruptcies.

Three Arrows Capital went bankrupt this summer, and it took months for it to lead to the collapse of FTX and the subsequent drop in Solana's value.

Going bankrupt or becoming a fraction of themselves is likely priced into the market and does not appear to have the same downstream impacts on other firms as Genesis and DCG.

Throughout all of this, Solana, in particular, has performed well. Thanks to recent enhancements, the blockchain has become quicker and more trustworthy, and both developers and consumers appear to be sticking to the blockchain rather than looking for alternatives.

The current trade surge is encouraging for cryptocurrency investors, but it may not remain. Momentum and short squeezes often drive short moves, such as the liquidation of $385 million in short holdings in the previous 24 hours.

What inspires me is the volume of blockchain activity on Ethereum, particularly on Solana. Developers continue to create for the blockchain, and non-fungible token projects on both blockchains, such as Checks on Ethereum and Claynosaurs on Solana, have attracted the market's interest.

As long as developers and entrepreneurs continue to build, the value of these tokens will rise. However, the development will be uneven, much like the price of cryptocurrencies.

21-01-2023 08:01:56

Weekly USD/JPY Forecast

USD/JPY fell to 127.20 last week but has since moved sideways. This week's initial bias remains neutral. There is no apparent evidence of a bottom yet, and a further plunge is yet possible. A break of 127.20 will continue the whole slide from 151.93 and target the Fibonacci level of 121.43. Nonetheless, a breach of 131.56 should confirm a short-term bottom and shift the bias to the upside for a bigger comeback.

In the larger picture, the break of the 55-week EMA (currently at 131.52) raises the possibility of a medium-term bearish reversal, although this has yet to be verified. To drive the price back up, look for a 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 and a 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75. However, a break of the 131.56 resistance level is required first to signify a bottom. Otherwise, more decline is likely.

In the long run, 151.93 appears to be a significant high. However, it is too early to predict a long-term negative reversal at this time. Rebounding from the 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75 will keep the case open for the price movement from 151.93 to be merely a corrective pattern.

21-01-2023 03:01:58

Bitcoin is near 10.16% in a bullish trade.

Bitcoin was trading at $23,089.1 on the Investing.com Index at 15:32 (10:02 GMT) on Saturday, up 10.16% on the day. It was the highest percentage rise in a single day since Thursday, November 10, 2022.

The increase increased Bitcoin's market size to $441.8 billion, or 42.10% of the overall cryptocurrency market worth. Bitcoin's market cap peaked at $1,275.5B. In the recent twenty-four hours, Bitcoin traded in a range of $22,461.1 to $23,090.2.

Bitcoin's value has increased by 11.75% during the last seven days. Bitcoin traded for $31.6B in the twenty-four hours to the time of writing, accounting for 52.46% of total cryptocurrency volume.

In the last 7 days, it has ranged from $20,448.2539 to $23,090.2012. Bitcoin is still down 66.53% from its all-time high of $68,990.63, which was hit on Wednesday, November 10, 2021. Other aspects of cryptocurrency trading On the Investing.com Index, Ethereum was last trading at $1,664.93, up 7.12% on the day.

Tether was trading at $1.0001 on the Investing.com Index, representing a 0.01% gain. The market cap of Ethereum was recently at $202.8 billion, or 19.32% of the whole cryptocurrency market cap, whereas Tether's market cap was $66.5 billion, or 6.34% of the total cryptocurrency market value.

21-01-2023 12:01:41

EUR/USD Forecast - The Euro Is Still Struggling

The Euro has been on a massive uptrend for some time, but the last week or so has seen the same pattern of battling above the 1.08 level.

Euro vs US Dollar Technical Analysis

The Euro surged again in the early hours of Friday but lost ground rapidly after we surpassed the 1.08 level. This is an area that has consistently caused issues for the Euro, so I don't believe it's a major surprise. This is a back-and-forth situation in which we can't seem to find our foothold. I believe that given enough time, we will have to make a larger choice, but it is clear that we are not yet ready to do so. With that in mind, I see this through the lens of a range-bound market that doesn't know what to do with itself.

According to the Davos speakers, higher for longer and more tightening is coming from both central banks, so it is no longer a one-way transaction. That being said, if you need to justify a move in this market, you might consider the probability of a worldwide downturn. Keep in mind that when the global economy slows, the US dollar tends to benefit as people seek protection. I'm not sure whether that's exactly what's going to happen here, but it certainly appears like a short-term retreat is in the works. That being said, a break over the 1.09 level sets up a clear shot to the 1.10 level.

On the downside, I believe the 1.06 level will be supported if we go that far on a retreat. In other words, more chop is almost certainly on the way.

21-01-2023 07:01:57

GBP Fundamental Forecast: Constrained Consumers Send it Lower

The pound confronts some obstacles, including rising into a period of poor growth, tenacious (though somewhat lower) inflation, which hurts expenditure, and unresolved Brexit difficulties. The Bank of England has the difficult challenge of maintaining rate rises that may have already pushed the country into recession if the December strike results in negative economic growth for Q4. Along with early favorable inflation statistics, it looks like GBP prospects aren't looking very promising outside of GBP/USD, where dollar selling has aided the underperforming currency.

UK RETAIL SALES ARE DISAPPOINTED

The pound fell on Friday as UK retail sales data showed a month-on-month reduction in both the report's 'volume' and 'value' indicators. Following the booze-fueled World Cup economic rebound in November, UK consumers elected to tighten their belts in December as the cost-of-living crunch persists. Consumers not only spent less but also bought fewer items during the strike-affected month of December, resulting in negative ratings on both counts when compared to November. Longer-term trends show a rise in value paid with a decrease in volume, implying that UK consumers are paying more for less.

JEREMY HUNT WOULD LIKE TO EXTEND THE 5P FUEL LEVY CUT IN HIS SPRING BUDGET.

On the fiscal front, UK finance minister Jeremy Hunt intends to continue the 5p gasoline price drop for another year, as announced in his spring budget. The 5-penny drop was first proposed by then-finance minister Rishi Sunak to reduce fuel prices at the pump. Hunt must tread a fine line since non-targeted government expenditure can keep inflation high for longer.

BOE GOVERNOR ANDREW BAILEY EXPECTS INFLATION TO FALL RAPIDLY IN 2023

Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, provided more views on inflation and the market's expectations for the terminal rate. Bailey maintains previous estimates that show inflation falling sharply in 2023 but still well above the 2% objective. About reduced inflation in December, Bailey termed the promising statistics as the "beginning of an indication that a corner has been turned". His views were reasonably cautious, considering the continuance of increased costs in the UK, where food price hikes remained a concern.

In the United Kingdom, average salaries have increased at their quickest rate since 2001 (6.4% year on year), yet this pales in contrast to inflation, which recently hit 11.1% year on year. The Bank of England has advised against salary rises, citing the risk of a wage-price spiral, which would keep inflation high for longer. Instead, the Bank has to get it right and dramatically cut inflation.

EVENTS WITH HIGH RISK FOR THE NEXT WEEK

Next week's high-impact sterling events are limited to Flash services and manufacturing PMI data, as well as a handful of high-profile UK earnings announcements from IBM, Boeing, EasyJet, Comcast, SAP, and Diageo, to name a few.

Next week's narrative will revolve around fourth-quarter US GDP and if the Fed looks to be steering a gentle landing despite its own poor retail sales figures. Then, on Friday, PCE inflation figures will be released. Cable is still one to keep an eye on because of its direct exposure to the currency.

20-01-2023 09:01:53

DeFi Forex will save costs by 80%

According to a joint study report issued on January 19th by Circle and Uniswap, using decentralized finance (Defi) protocols in the foreign exchange market may reduce remittance costs by up to 80%.

The study, titled "On-chain Foreign Exchange and Cross-border Payments," was written by Austin Adams (Uniswap Data Scientist), Gordon Liao (Circle Chief Economist), and others.

The authors of the study report examined the trading activities of Circle's USDC and EUROC on Uniswap from July 2022 to January 2023. They determined that the digital currency had a total transaction volume of $128 million, with certain days showing up to $8 million in trading activity.

During the study period, USDC and EUROC traded at prices that were extremely close to the exchange rates discovered in the large-scale forex market for the USD and EUR, respectively. Despite its tiny trading volume, the authors conclude that the Defi currency exchange offers a legitimate alternative to traditional forex, with competitive pricing and price efficiency.

The researchers want to investigate the possible cost savings that may be obtained in the foreign exchange market by utilizing decentralized finance protocols such as Uniswap. To accomplish so, they contrasted the expenses associated with the traditional correspondent banking forex system to those connected with Defi forex.

The researchers calculated the cost of a $500 transfer via the international banking system using World Bank statistics. They then compared this pricing to buying a stablecoin (either USDC or EUROC) on an exchange, exchanging it for the other coin with Uniswap, transferring it to another person, then exchanging it back for the original currency on an exchange.

The researchers concluded that, while the Defi model does contain expenses like exchange fees, network fees, Defi trading fees, and charges connected with sending and receiving money from an exchange. According to World Bank estimates, these costs are still much less than the typical remittance cost, by up to 80%.

Defi is transforming the world's financial systems.

Decentralized finance, or Defi, is changing the way we think about traditional financial institutions. Defi systems can provide a variety of financial services without the use of centralized middlemen by utilizing blockchain technology and smart contracts. As a result, there has been an explosion of innovation in the field, as well as an increasing number of users lured to the transparency, security, and accessibility of Defi platforms.

The possibility for everyone with an internet connection to access a wide range of financial services is one of the most intriguing elements of Defi. This covers lending and borrowing, as well as trading and investing insurance and savings. Defi platforms may deliver these services at substantially cheaper rates and with better transparency by eliminating the need for traditional middlemen such as banks and financial institutions.

Smart contracts, which are self-executing contracts with the conditions of the agreement explicitly put into lines of code, are another important feature of Defi. This enables the automation of numerous financial procedures, which can decrease the risk of fraud and mistakes.

Furthermore, by storing all data on a decentralized blockchain network, smart contracts may help safeguard users' privacy and security. The total value locked in Defi platforms is expected to reach more than $30 billion by 2021, with the number of users on these platforms expanding at a similar rate. As a result, there has been an inflow of institutional investors and established financial firms wanting to join in on the action.

20-01-2023 05:01:20

GBPUSD Midday Update on 20-01-2023

The GBPUSD pair has been trading in a tight range throughout the morning, and as long as the price remains above 1.2295, our bullish outlook will continue valid for today, structured inside the bullish channel shown on the chart, reminding you that our next key goal is 1.2590.

Today's trading range is predicted to be between 1.2310 support and 1.2480 resistance.

Today's projected trend: Bullish

20-01-2023 02:01:04

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

Higher as Traders Ignore Japan's Core Inflation Surge

Japan's core consumer prices jumped 4.0% year on year in December, more than double the central bank's 2% objective and setting a new 41-year high.

Despite concerns that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may ultimately abandon its ultra-easy policies, the dollar/yen is rising. The Forex pair is also supported by high US Treasury rates.

The USD/JPY is trading at 129.088, up 0.662 or +0.52% at 06:17 GMT. The Invesco CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust ETF (FXY) is trading at $72.65, up $0.23 or +0.32% on Thursday.

The USD/JPY rose earlier this week on the Bank of Japan's decision to maintain its ultra-easy monetary policy. However, it also fell as traders continued to gamble on a shift in Bank of Japan policy.

Analysts are divided on whether the BOJ would hike rates this year, owing to concern over whether salaries will rise sufficiently to offset the impact of growing living costs on consumption while keeping inflation at or around 2%.

Japan's core consumer prices surged 4.0% year on year in December, more than double the central bank's 2% objective, setting a new 41-year high and fueling market hopes that the central bank will gradually phase out ultra-low interest rates.

Technical Analysis of the Daily Swing Chart

According to the daily swing chart, the major trend is down. However, momentum is increasing. A move through 127.227 will indicate that the downturn has resumed. A break of 134.775 shifts the primary trend upward.

The minor trend is positive. On Wednesday, it began to rise. The motion changed momentum upward.

The nearest support is the major bottom on May 24, 2022, which is at 126.362. The nearest resistance levels are 103.050 and 131.001.

Technical Forecast for the Daily Swing Chart

The reaction of traders to a minor pivot at 129.403 will most likely influence the direction of the USD/JPY on Friday.

Bullish Scenario

A persistent advance over 129.403 suggests the presence of buyers. This might lead to a surge towards pivots at 130.050 and 131.001. Passing through this level might set up a test of the minor tops at 131.578 and 131.872.

Bearish Scenario

A persistent move below 129.402 indicates the presence of sellers. This might result in a retest of the primary bottom at 127.227, followed by a retest of the long-term support at 126.362.

20-01-2023 07:01:56

US Dollar Forecast Today

The DXY bulls and bears are locked in a struggle at a critical point

• DXY bears are camping below the 102.20 crucial resistance level.
• A breach of the 50% mean reversion level opens the door to an upward correction.

The US Dollar was under pressure in non-directional markets on Thursday, although it was pulled down by US disinflationary data, despite aggressive language from Federal Reserve officials.

The price is bouncing along the support, with an eye on a test of the initial bearish impulse's 38.2% Fibonacci level and a 50% mean reversion that will hit the neckline of the M-formation. This is currently at 102.20 and will be crucial in determining the trajectory for the remainder of the week. A break there raises the possibility of a move into trendline resistance at 102.50, while failure raises the case of a big bearish continuation.

A move down at this point increases the possibility of a breach of the 101.30s swing lows on the daily chart, as well as a fake-out that would have trapped US dollar bulls in the currency market.

19-01-2023 07:01:19

The USD/JPY Rises and Then Falls Following The BOJ Meeting

In October, the USD/JPY made a strong bearish reversal as the USD fell. The Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance, on the other hand, intervened in the markets following the JPY's long decline, and the pair reversed just below 152.

The BOJ also made a move, announcing a policy change in December, which helped send USD/JPY lower, and the price fell below 130 this year. Traders were expecting further policy changes to be announced at the BOJ meeting yesterday.

Instead of tweaking or abandoning it entirely, the BOJ announced no policy changes yesterday, but it revised inflation forecasts higher, disappointing JPY buyers. As a result, the USD/JPY rose to 131.60 from a 128 low.

The traders' heavy long positioning on the JPY suggested that speculators were betting on back-to-back major policy changes by policymakers, but I believe they cannot risk too much change in too short a period. The surprise factor, however, was that they doubled down on defending their yield curve control policy.

As the BOJ's gains faded, the price fell back. Someone had to ruin the BOJ's attempt to send a strong message today. This, combined with a softer USD today and the fact that the technicals are still supportive of the recent downside trend, encouraged USD/JPY sellers to return, indicating that the main trend remains bearish.

19-01-2023 01:01:51

Bearish Breakdown in the AUD/USD Forex Pair

The Australian Dollar is extremely weak, but it is unlikely to fall much further against the US Dollar today.

My previous signal on January 12th did not trigger because there were no valid reversals at the first touches of any of the support or resistance levels that day.

Short Trade Ideas 

• Short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame, on the next touch of $0.6953 or $0.6993.
• Set the stop loss one pip above the current swing high.
• Once the trade is 20 pips in profit, adjust the stop loss to break even.
• When the price reaches 20 pips in profit, take 50% of the position as profit and leave the rest of the position to run.

Long Trade Ideas 

• Long after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame and the next touches of $0.6845, $0.6790, and $0.6723.
• Set the stop loss one pip below the current swing low.
• Once the trade is 20 pips in profit, adjust the stop loss to break even.
• When the price reaches 20 pips in profit, take 50% of the position as profit and leave the rest of the position to run.

The best way to spot a classic "price action reversal" is for an hourly candle to close with a higher close, such as a pin bar, doji, outside candle, or even just an engulfing candle. You can profit from these levels or zones by observing the price action that occurs at the specified levels.

AUD/USD Analysis 

In my previous forecast, I stated that the AUD/USD currency pair was trapped between $0.6845 and $0.6953, but that if new US CPI data showed a drop to 6.5% or lower, we would almost certainly see a rise to $0.6953 and potentially a bullish breakout beyond that level, which could be significant.

This was a good call because when the CPI data came in at 6.5%, the price immediately rose above $0.6953, and then fell back to exceed that level over the next few days.

Yesterday, the price reached a multi-month high of $0.7063 before plummeting precipitously. This bearish breakdown is significant and could be significant.

The price chart below shows that the price has returned to a zone of safety, the recent zone of consolidation below the resistance level at $0.6918. The technical outlook is bearish as long as the price remains below that level, but how much further the price can fall is unknown because there is a lot of consolidation and support above the support level at $0.6845, which will likely keep the price up for the time being.

The Australian Dollar is currently in the spotlight because it is the weakest major currency. This drop appears to be unrelated to anything happening in Australia, but rather a barometer of risk sentiment, which fell yesterday for highly debatable reasons. In my opinion, we are witnessing a more natural and deep bearish retracement.

Given our long-term trend against the US Dollar, and the fact that there is unlikely to be much immediate downside movement ahead of us, I see the best potential opportunity here today as a long trade following a bullish bounce at the support level of $0.6845, if it is reached today.

There is nothing significant scheduled for today in terms of the AUD or USD.

19-01-2023 07:01:43

The FOREX-Dollar rises on haven bids, while the yen regains ground.

The dollar rose broadly on Thursday as investors increased their bets that the Bank of Japan would abandon its yield curve control policy, while the yen rose as investors increased their bets that the Bank of Japan would abandon its yield curve control policy. Weak data from the United States released on Wednesday showed that retail sales fell by the most in a year in December, and manufacturing output fell by the most in nearly two years, fueling fears that the world's largest economy is heading for a recession.

The dollar rose broadly on Thursday as investors increased their bets that the Bank of Japan would abandon its yield curve control policy, while the yen rose as investors increased their bets that the Bank of Japan would abandon its yield curve control policy.

Weak data from the United States released on Wednesday showed that retail sales fell by the most in a year in December, and manufacturing output fell by the most in nearly two years, fueling fears that the world's largest economy is heading for a recession. "Those weak data reinforced market concerns about an impending US recession... (which) supported the dollar, and I believe that will become a growing narrative in the coming months," Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

The pound fell 0.17% to $1.2327, moving away from the previous session's one-month high of $1.2435, while the Australian dollar fell 0.49% to $0.6907, following a 0.64% loss on Wednesday. The euro fell 0.02% to $1.0792, still a long way from Wednesday's nine-month high of $1.08875, even as French central bank chief Francois Villeroy de Galhau maintained a hawkish stance on the European Central Bank's rate-hike path.

The fresh wave of risk aversion, exacerbated by news of job cuts at tech behemoths Microsoft and Amazon, kept the dollar bid. "The effects of the FOMC tightening will become increasingly visible," Kong predicted.

However, the dollar failed to gain ground against the Japanese yen, closing 0.4% lower at 128.42 yen, undoing much of the previous day's rally in the immediate aftermath of the BOJ's decision to maintain its ultra-easy monetary policy. In defiance of market expectations, the BOJ maintained its interest rate targets and yield band, instead devising a new weapon to prevent long-term rates from rising too much, in a show of resolve to maintain its YCC policy for the time being.

Following the decision, the yen fell 2% against the dollar and other currencies, as did Japanese government bond yields, which fell the most in two decades at one point on Wednesday. The euro was last 0.39% lower at 138.58 yen, while sterling fell 0.23% to 158.27 yen, as markets continued to test the resolve of the BOJ's ultra-dovish stance.

"I think it reflects the fact that market participants are still speculating on a change in the Bank of Japan's policy despite their inaction yesterday," CBA's Kong explained. "While there are still high expectations for a policy shift... I believe the yen will remain fairly elevated in the near term." In other news, the New Zealand dollar fell 0.31% to $0.6425. New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said in a televised statement on Thursday that she will not run for re-election and will step down no later than early February.

The US dollar index rose 0.09% to 102. The 42 against a basket of currencies.

18-01-2023 07:01:31

Technical Analysis of the GBP/USD: Nearest Selling Levels

Since the start of this week's trading, the GBP/USD pair has been dominated by bullish performance, with gains towards the 1.2300 resistance level. At the time of writing the analysis, it is stable near it. This comes as investors have abandoned the US dollar following the recent announcement of lower US inflation figures.

In contrast, the British economy added more jobs than expected in November, while wages grew faster than expected, keeping the Bank of England under pressure to keep raising interest rates.

As a result, the British pound rose after the Office for National Statistics reported a 27 thousand job increase in the three months to November, which was unchanged from the previous month but higher than expectations for a 5 thousand decrease.

The unemployment rate in the country remained unchanged at 3.7%, while the number of people receiving non-work benefits increased by 19.7 thousand, less than the 19.8 thousand expected by markets.

The pound is rising in value.

Despite six consecutive quarterly declines, the number of job vacancies remains at historically high levels, indicating that the labor market remains historically "tight" and consistent with persistent wage inflationary pressures, according to the Office for National Statistics. This confirms the Bank of England's ability to raise interest rates, thereby supporting the pound sterling. At the time of writing, the market reaction was largely consistent with this theme.

Money market traders are increasing their bets on a BoE rate hike following Wednesday's inflation report, which highlighted near-record UK wage growth. They increased their bets by 6 basis points, predicting a bank rate of 4.56% by September, the highest level in nearly a week.

Two-year US Treasury yields, which are among the most sensitive to monetary policy changes, rose 5 basis points to a two-week high of 3.57%. The pound was set to finish at a five-week high.

Gas prices have dropped by more than 80% since last year's record high, and headline inflation is expected to slow to 10.5% in December, the first decline since the pandemic began in 2020. While policymakers in the United Kingdom slowed the pace, Governor Andrew Bailey warned that the risks to the inflation outlook remain tilted to the upside after tightening to 50 basis points last month.

GBP/USD analysis today:

The price of the GBP/USD pair is currently on an upward trend.

Moving toward the 1.2330 resistance level will confirm this and push the technical indicators into overbought territory.

Despite easing expectations about the future of the Fed's policy, I continue to prefer selling the Sterling Dollar at any bullish level. This is offset by pessimistic forecasts for the British economy's recovery.

However, based on past performance, a move toward the 1.2095 support level will signal the end of the current bullish trend. The sterling-dollar pair will be influenced today by the release of British inflation figures, followed by the release of US economic data, the producer price index, and retail sales figures.

18-01-2023 02:01:44

The upside in EUR/USD has become more limited

Bond yields on both sides of the Atlantic rose a few basis points before being halted by separate news reports. The culprit in the United States was a terrible Empire manufacturing, which fell to its lowest level since mid-2020 due to a drop in new orders and stalled hiring. US short-term yields finished the day 2-2.8 basis points lower.

Yields at the long end of the curve returned to intraday lows following the release, but eventually closed 4 to 5 basis points higher. On European soil, a Bloomberg story was responsible for German yields falling between 5.6 basis points (30y) and 10.9 basis points (2y), outperforming swaps by 1 to 2 basis points. According to news agency sources, ECB policymakers are considering a slower pace of rate hikes beginning with the March meeting.

A 50 basis point move in February is still considered most likely. They added that a slowdown in tightening should not be interpreted as the ECB abandoning its mandate. However, if that is the case, it is a less hawkish stance than President Lagarde outlined at the December meeting.

The euro paid in cash. The EUR/USD retreated from recent highs around 1.087 and fell to 1.078, even as the dollar itself traded unconvincingly. The DXY (trade-weighted dollar) continued to fall, but only so far. The EUR/GBP fell below 0.88, with a smidgeon of sterling strength present. It came after a solid labour market report, with near-record wage growth, keeping the pressure on the Bank of England.

This morning, the Bank of Japan held a closely watched meeting, but the mountain produced a mouse. It held rates steady at -0.1% and adhered to its YCC programme, which kept the 10y fixed at 0% with a 50 bps range. Given the ongoing inflationary and market pressures, some expected the BoJ to widen the allowed deviation even further.

The Bank of Japan raised its inflation forecast for the end of the horizon to 1.8%, with risks tilted to the upside, but clearly considered it insufficient for further policy changes.

As bets on a hawkish twist unwind, the yen takes a beating. The USD/JPY has risen from 128.12 to 130.75. However, Japanese equities are the standout performer, accounting for 2.5% of the total.

Bond yields in the area are down 4-11.1 basis points, with the 10-year yield leading the way. Moves spread to US Treasuries. Cash yields fall by 2.7-6.6 basis points.

Retail sales in the United States are due later today. They are expected to have fallen further m/m in December. Given yesterday's disappointing Empire manufacturing and general sentiment vs central banks following the ECB and BoJ news, there's probably more room for a US/core bond yield reaction in the event of a negative surprise.

In such a case, the dollar could remain under pressure, but with yesterday's Bloomberg story, EUR/upside USD's became more limited. 1.0942 became more powerful as a resistance. Following a CPI beat, the pound has extended its gains this morning.

Although headline inflation fell from 10.7% to 10.5%, monthly dynamics were stronger than expected (0.4% m/m vs 0.3%). Furthermore, core price growth remained stable at 6.3%, defying expectations for a drop to 6.2%. EUR/GBP falls towards 0.8769. The first significant support comes in at 0.8721.

Headlines in the News

At the World Economic Forum in Davos, IMF deputy managing director Gopinath subtly changed the organization's rather pessimistic outlook.

In a recent speech in New York, IMF managing director Georgieva warned that a third of the global economy will be in recession this year, calling 2023 a "tougher" year than 2022.

Gopinath continued to refer to the year as "tough," with inflation remaining too high and central banks remaining on course with interest rates to combat the problem, but she also emphasised an expected improvement in the second half of the year, stretching into 2024.

Lower energy prices and the reopening of the Chinese economy triggered an extremely bullish start to the year, with markets split on the central bank part of the story. In an interview with Bloomberg, German Chancellor Scholz expressed optimism by declaring that Germany will enter a recession.

In a statement, Slovakia's interim Prime Minister Heger stated that snap elections in the fall appear to be the most realistic scenario at the moment. Regular elections were set for February 20, 2024. Heger's administration fell apart in December. Attempts to gain a majority since losing the no-confidence vote have failed: "With today, I consider all attempts to establish a new 76 (majority) to be closed," he said. To call snap elections, parliament's term must be reduced, which could happen at next week's opening session (Jan 24).

18-01-2023 07:01:22

FOREX-Dollar Steady, yen Falls as Traders Await the Bank of Japan's Policy Decision

The US dollar held steady on Wednesday, while the yen fell as investors awaited the Bank of Japan's policy decision, which could signal the end of Tokyo's ultra-easy monetary policy.

Last month, the central bank surprised the market by raising its 10-year yield cap to 0.5% from 0.25%, effectively doubling the range it would allow above or below its target of zero. Since then, speculation has swirled that the BOJ's yield curve control (YCC) policy would be tweaked further.

The Japanese yen fell 0.56% against the US dollar on Wednesday, closing at 128.83 per dollar, down from a seven-month high of 127.25 on Monday. The dollar index, which compares the safe-haven currency to six others, was unchanged at 102.400.

According to Kristina Clifton, senior economist and senior currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, the meeting is likely to cause significant volatility in currency markets, with a dovish stance causing the dollar/yen to rise by 2-5 yen.

"By contrast, any policy change may be interpreted by markets as a step toward policy normalisation, pulling the dollar/yen lower, potentially sharply lower," Clifton said.

The 10-year yield on Japanese government bond breached the BOJ's ceiling for three straight sessions to Tuesday, leading to a wave of emergency bond buying by the government.

Some investors believe the BOJ will be forced to adjust, or even dismantle, YCC as soon as this week because the central bank will be unable to sustain the massive volume of bond buying required to defend the cap.

"The pressure on the JGB market in recent weeks, combined with the prospect of rising Japanese inflation, leads us to conclude that the BOJ will deliver a strong signal that the end of YCC is near," said Rodrigo Catril, a strategist at National Australia Bank in Sydney.

"If the Bank maintains its YCC band, this is likely to be accompanied by a commitment to purchase more JGBs, but given market pressure, we suspect that the Bank will have to give a strong signal that a policy shift is imminent."

Meanwhile, the pound was last trading at $1.2274, down 0.11% on the day, while the euro fell 0.03% to $1.0785.

The Australian dollar fell 0.04% to $0.698, while the New Zealand dollar rose 0.03% to $0.643.

17-01-2023 02:01:07

EUR/USD Forex Signal: Forming of a Small Double-Top Pattern

As signs of a divergence between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) emerged, the EUR/USD pair has been strongly bullish.

Bearish outlook

Set a take-profit of 1.0717 on the EUR/USD pair.

Put a stop-loss order at 1.0850.

Time frame: 1-2 days.

Bullish outlook

Set a take-profit of 1.0900 on the EUR/USD pair.

Put a stop-loss order at 1.0750.

The EUR/USD exchange rate fell slightly in low volume as the market awaited important economic data from the United States and Europe. It fell to 1.0816, just a few points below its peak for the month. After falling below parity in 2022, the pair has been on a strong uptrend.

Divergence between the Fed and the ECB?

As signs of a divergence between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) emerged, the EUR/USD pair has been strongly bullish. The United States has produced several positive numbers, implying that the Fed will continue its pivot in the coming months. Inflation has fallen for six months in a row, and the unemployment rate has fallen to 3.5%.

European inflation, on the other hand, remains elevated. Inflation remains close to 10%, according to data released earlier this month. As a result, ING analysts believe the bank will raise rates by 125 basis points in the first half of the year. It will then maintain rates at that level until 2024.

Their viewpoint supported what the governor of the Finnish central bank said last week. He believes that the ECB should continue to raise interest rates.

As a result, ING analysts decided to revise their euro forecast. After being bearish for a while, they now believe the pair will remain bullish this year. They cited interest rate differentials or spreads between the United States and Europe, as well as the bloc's improving fundamentals.

Recent data and news indicate that Europe will avoid the recession that most analysts predicted. The energy shock that most people expected did not occur because Europe had enough natural gas in storage.

At the same time, winter was much warmer than expected, and LNG flows from the US and other sources have increased dramatically in recent months.

Forecast for the EUR/USD

In recent weeks, the EUR/USD pair has been in a bullish trend. This week's rally faded as the pair formed a small double-top pattern. This pattern is typically interpreted as a bearish sign in price action analysis. In addition, the pair remained slightly above the 25-day and 50-day moving averages. It is also slightly above the key resistance level of 1.0718, which was the highest on December 30.

As a result, the pair is likely to retreat slightly and retest the key support level of 1.0717. This trade's stop-loss will be set at 1.085.

17-01-2023 07:01:33

The US Dollar benefits little from dull trading.

The US dollar began the week where it left off the previous one, easing across the board. Market participants were still upbeat about easing US price pressures and the possibility of a US Federal Reserve monetary policy pivot in the near future. 

However, optimism faded at the start of a quiet week, with US markets closed for the Martin Luther King holiday. The US dollar managed to recover ahead of the daily close, but it ended the day with modest gains against most major rivals, and it remains vulnerable to further declines.

The main focus was on Japan Government Bonds (JGBs), as the 10-year note's yield jumped to 0.52%, pushing it to the upper end of the Bank of Japan's range. 

The Bank of Japan is holding a monetary policy meeting this week, and rising yields have fueled speculation that policymakers will finally change their monetary policy. 

Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's term expires in April, and speculation suggests that he will make changes to the ultra-loose policy before leaving. Masayoshi Amamiya, Deputy Chief of the BoJ, is the leading candidate for the next governor.

According to the Bank of Canada Consumer Survey, expectations for 1-year ahead inflation increased to a record 7.18% from 7.11% in the third quarter, while expectations for 2-year ahead inflation fell to 5.14% from 5.22% in the third quarter.

The EUR/USD pair is trading near 1.0815, while the GBP/USD pair is trading a few pips below 1.2200. The AUD/USD pair briefly traded above the 0.7000 level before settling at around 0.6950, while the USD/CAD pair oscillates around 1.3400. The USD/JPY pair has recovered from a new multi-month low of 127.21 and is now trading at 128.50.

Gold maintains its $1,900 level, now settling at $1,914, while crude oil prices fell, with WTI settling at $79.12 per barrel.

16-01-2023 04:01:40

GBP/USD Forex Signal

Bullish view

Buy the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.2300.

Add a stop-loss at 1.2100.

Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bearish view

Set a sell-stop at 1.2180 and a take-profit at 1.2050.

Add a stop-loss at 1.2250.

The GBP/USD forex rate has been rising in recent days as investors digested important economic data. It reached a high of 1.2242 last week, the highest since December 19. As the US dollar index fell from $115 in 2022 to $102, the pair has been strongly bullish.

Inflation and retail sales figures for the United Kingdom

The GBP/USD exchange rate rose after the United States released its inflation data last Thursday. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the country's inflation continued to fall in December. It has fallen for six months in a row, and some analysts are concerned about the possibility of deflation in the United States as the economy undergoes significant change.

Inventories remain high amid recessionary fears. Despite recent positive data, including employment, some economists believe the US economy will contract in 2023. According to a Wall Street Journal poll of economists, the likelihood of a recession has risen to 61%. Top Wall Street banks' financial results indicated that they expected a mild recession.

The GBP/USD pair rose after the release of the most recent UK GDP data on Friday. These figures showed that the economy eked out a small gain in November, defying analyst expectations. It grew by 0.1% in November, beating expectations of a 0.2% contraction. In the third quarter, the economy shrank by 0.3%.

The GBP/USD exchange rate will react to upcoming UK economic data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the most recent job figures on Tuesday. On Tuesday, the latest UK inflation figures will be released. Economists predict that inflation will fall slightly in December, as it did in the United States.

Forecast for the GBP/USD

The GBP/USD has been rising in recent days. It has managed to move above the 25-day and 50-day moving averages during this time. It also rose slightly above the key resistance level of 1.2200, which was the highest point on January 9. The pair also passed above the upper side of the descending channel and the Ichimoku cloud.

As a result, the pair is likely to see a bullish breakout this week as the UK releases important economic data. If this occurs, the pair is likely to continue rising as buyers aim for the key resistance level of 1.2300

16-01-2023 12:01:06

NZD/USD Technical Analysis

The New Zealand Dollar edged higher on Monday as investors continued to bet that the US Federal Reserve will scale back the size and pace of its interest rate hikes at its policy meeting on January 31-February 1. This would weaken the US dollar while strengthening commodity-linked currencies such as the New Zealand dollar.

This viewpoint is supported by the December CPI report, which showed that prices fell 0.1% over November. In comparison to the previous year, prices increased at a 6.5% annual rate.

Furthermore, economic data from the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey showed that the one-year inflation outlook had dropped to 4% on Friday. This was the third consecutive monthly decline and the lowest level since April 20, 2021.

The NZD/USD is trading at.6408, up 0.0024 or +0.37% at 01:58 GMT.

Goldman Sachs strategists agreed with the idea of a less hawkish Federal Reserve. They believe the December inflation data sealed the deal on a shift to 25 basis point hikes in February, but they caution that it is too early in the process for central banks to declare victory.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Analysis

According to the daily swing chart, the main trend is up. A trade through.6417 will signal the resumption of the uptrend. A break of.6191 shifts the main trend to the downside.

The minor trend is also upward. A trade through.6322 shifts the minor trend to the downside. This will also shift momentum to the downside.

The nearest support is a minor pivot at.6372. The nearest resistance is a long-term 50% level at.6467.

Daily Swing Chart Technical Forecast

The reaction of traders to the minor pivot at.6372 will most likely determine the direction of the NZD/USD on Monday.

Bullish Scenario

A sustained move above.6373 signals the presence of buyers. Taking out.6417 restores the uptrend, with the long-term 50% level at.6467 as the next target. By passing this level, the Kiwi will be in a position to challenge the main top at.6514.

Bearish Hypothesis

A sustained move below.6372 indicates the presence of sellers. The minor bottom at.6322 is the first target. If this level is breached, it indicates that the selling is intensifying. This could cause a surge to the long-term Fibonacci level of.6231. This is the last support before the main bottom at.6191.

15-01-2023 08:01:03

Forex Suggest Identifies Cryptocurrency Acceptance Markets

Despite ongoing market volatility and the spectacular decline of some of the industry's largest exchanges, the cryptocurrency industry continues to captivate users as the most recent way to pay. But where in the world is that enslavement less a pipe dream and more of a reality? According to the most recent Forex Suggest data, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Canada are the world's top destinations for accepting cryptocurrency payments. The United States currently has 127 crypto-accepting businesses, accounting for nearly half of the global total. The United Kingdom trailed behind with 28 crypto-capable devices, followed by Canada with 12. The integration of commerce platform Primer with Coinbase in October 2022 to enable merchants to accept digital currency as payment is one example of the US's successful track record in cryptocurrency payments. Similarly, tech behemoths Microsoft and PayPal have made significant progress in the space, with major investments announced throughout last year. Open a store In terms of the environments in which cryptocurrency is spent, Forex Suggest believes that e-commerce is the most important industry for cryptocurrency acceptance. Rakuten, Shopify, and Overstock are all highlighted as examples of the 30 e-commerce businesses with crypto-friendly checkouts in this category.

Following e-commerce is the travel industry, which ranks 26th, and internet services, which ranks 24th. Expedia, for example, accepts Bitcoin as payment for hotel reservations, and many airlines, including AirBaltic, LOT Polish Airlines, and Norwegian Air, have begun accepting cryptocurrency payments. Similarly, the food and beverage and retail industries each have 23 businesses accepting cryptocurrency, followed by charity and gambling, which have 19 and 15 businesses accepting cryptocurrency, respectively. Sports organizations are also becoming more crypto-friendly. According to the data, the United States has the most sports teams that accept cryptocurrency, with seven out of ten. Senator is also in the leading region.

14-01-2023 09:01:43

Forex Weekly Forecast (January 16 – 20, 2023)

The EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, and S&P 500 are the subject of today's weekly Forex prediction (SPX500). We have some amazing technicals in the works for next week, including USDCAD support in July 2021 and an all-time high trend line for the S& P 500.

EURUSD Forecast

Last week, the EURUSD burst out, eventually closing above the 1.0700 range high. On Thursday, the euro broke through 1.0780 and found support there on Friday. So, next week, keep an eye on that crucial level. As long as the EURUSD closes above 1.0780 daily, the pair appears to be rather optimistic.

GBPUSD Forecast

USDJPY Forecast

USDCAD Forecast

S&P 500 (SPX500) Forecast

The SPX (S& P 500 futures) is reaching major resistance. The trend line from the all-time high is at 4,020 and will be a factor this week. A retest of 4,020 will almost certainly generate selling pressure. Will bulls finally have a daily close above it, or will it cause a bearish reversal like it has for months?

A daily close below 4,020 would confirm the break and reveal 4,140, while a daily close above that line would confirm the break and expose 4,140. Although it is not obvious from the daily time frame, 4,140 is a significant monthly level for SPX. The key support level for the S& P 500 is 3,910.

14-01-2023 01:01:21

India's Forex Reserves Fell By USD 1.268 Billion to USD 561.583 Billion

The Reserve Bank of India reported that India's currency reserves fell by USD 1.268 billion to USD 561.583 billion in the week ending January 6. Following two weeks of decline, total reserves climbed by USD 44 million to USD 562.851 billion in the preceding reporting week. The country's foreign exchange reserves hit an all-time high of USD 645 billion in October 2021.

The reserves have been dwindling as the central bank utilized them to safeguard the currency against global market pressures. According to the RBI's Weekly Statistical Supplement, foreign currency assets (FCA), a major component of overall reserves, fell by USD 1.747 billion to USD 496.441 billion during the week ending January 6.

Foreign exchange reserves are assets in foreign currencies kept in reserve by a central bank, such as bonds, treasury bills, and other government securities. It is important to highlight that the vast bulk of foreign exchange reserves is stored in US dollars.

India's foreign exchange reserves comprise the following:

• Foreign Currency Holdings
• Reserves of gold
• SDRs are Special Drawing Rights (SDR)
• International Monetary Fund reserve position (IMF)

The effect of appreciation or depreciation of non-US units such as the euro, pound, and yen held in foreign exchange reserves is included in the foreign currency assets.

The value of gold reserves rose from USD 461 million to USD 41.784 billion. The Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) increased by USD 35 million to USD 18.217 billion, according to the apex bank. The country's reserve position with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) fell by USD 18 million in the reporting week to USD 5.141 billion, according to the statistics.

14-01-2023 07:01:29

USDJPY Forecast For 13.01.2023–20.01.2023

Short positions from corrections below 132.88 with a target of 125.35 - 121.52 are considered in the main scenario.

Alternative scenario: a breakthrough and stabilization above 132.88 will allow the pair to continue advancing to levels between 138.24 and 140.57.

On the daily chart, the upward third wave of a more considerable degree (3) has finished developing, with wave 5 of (3) forming as part of it. On the H4 chart, a descending correction looks to be growing as the fourth wave (4), with wave C of (4) forming as part of it.

On the H1 chart, the third wave of more minor degree iii of C looks to have begun to form, with wave (iii) of iii of C forming inside. If this assumption holds, the pair will continue to fall to 125.35 - 121.52. In this scenario, the level of 132.88 is significant since a break will allow the pair to continue rising to levels of 138.24 - 140.57.

13-01-2023 08:01:00

GBP/USD PRICE & ANALYSIS

The British Pound climbed versus the US Dollar on Friday, thanks to more benign inflation figures from the world's largest economy and some unexpected domestic growth.

According to official statistics released on Thursday, price increases in the United States slowed for the sixth consecutive month in December. This has traders and investors more confident than ever that the majority of interest rate hikes are now behind them and that, while more are possible, the pace will reduce.

This viewpoint contrasts with that of many other developed countries, particularly those more vulnerable to price increases connected to the Ukraine conflict, such as the Eurozone. Rates are expected to climb further there, and the euro and sterling also surged following the US data.

GROWTH MANAGEMENT IN THE UK SURPRISE ON THE INSIDE

The pound had some rare domestic happiness Friday when it was revealed that its economy expanded by a whisker in November. Gross Domestic Product Growth was 0.1% while markets expected a 0.2% decrease. However, when manufacturing and industrial production fell short of expectations, the champagne may be safely placed on ice. The UK economy does not appear to be ready for considerably higher borrowing rates, and interest rate support for the sterling is likely to remain erratic as economic data becomes available.

Continued bad labor relations and the threat of recession, probably accompanied by some stagflation,' will keep the Pound a worried bullish bet. The Bank of England's next policy decision will not be made until February 2.

However, London-listed companies have gained with global rivals in anticipation that the US rate-hike cycle is coming to an end. On Friday, the blue-chip FTSE 100 index approached all-time highs. The extent to which this index constitutes a gamble on the UK economy is controversial, considering the amount of significant multinational brands that comprise it.

 all-time highs. The extent to which this index constitutes a gamble on the UK economy is controversial, considering the amount of significant multinational brands that comprise it.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF THE GBP/USD

The daily chart shows that, even though GBP/USD dropped decisively below its previously-dominant uptrend channel on December 15, the bulls kept a considerable degree of influence.

Sterling's fortunes have improved since that day, with an increase this week. While GBP/USD is now supported, the pound appears to be a bit stretched at current levels, and some consolidation may be required before it can push meaningfully higher and reclaim those mid-December heights.

For the time being, support appears to be in a zone between the psychological 1.2000 level and 1.2120. Between December 22 and January 3, the market moved tightly inside this band. The pound's ability to maintain above or within this range as the weekends might be a key indicator for any near-term aim at its recent highs.

According to IG's client sentiment index, the market is now net short of GBP/USD, albeit by a small margin, with respondents reporting a 53%/47% split.

13-01-2023 05:01:00

GBPUSD Trend today

The GBPUSD pair crawls upwards in an attempt to resume the main bullish trend, to keep the positive scenario valid for today supported by the EMA50, waiting to visit 1.2440 as the next main target, reminding you that it is important to hold above 1.2120 to continue the expected rise.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.2100 support and 1.2290 resistance.

The expected trend for today: Bullish

13-01-2023 01:01:07

The USD is under more pressure from yesterday's CPI data

The US CPI data came in within forecasts as the statistics met expectations, leaving global markets unsure of what to do next. The dollar swung back and forth not just in the immediate aftermath, but even before traders and investors looked between the lines to interpret the data as being on the weaker side.

If you're trading on the data, that'll be a big killer because the market was a little unsure an hour or so following the main risk event.

However, the dollar eventually fell as expectations of a more aggressive Fed were reduced, with some market participants now expecting a 25 basis point rate rise next.

In my opinion, the two most important charts for the dollar right now are those against the euro and the yen.

In the case of the EUR/USD, the move yesterday validated the break over the previous resistance of 1.0700, with buyers now taking out 1.0800.

This opens the way to the 50.0 Fib retracement level of the swing lower from 2021, which is expected at 1.0942 next. All of this is before we get to the next significant psychological barrier level of 1.1000, which many market participants are pinning today following yesterday.

The USD/JPY then saw a significant collapse, falling from 130.00 to its lowest level since 1 June. However, the move is partly influenced by recent BOJ conjecture, and I would argue that it was not so much the CPI data that produced such ripples in the pair yesterday.

The bearish momentum was mostly carried over from Asia, where there is growing concern that the BOJ may attempt to further adjust or at least hint at a policy shift at its meeting next week.

In any event, a break below 130.00 puts sellers in an excellent position to pursue a further negative break towards the May lows around 126.55-65, with the 125.00 mark a critical level to watch.

13-01-2023 08:01:00

Asia Market Open Highlights

Everyone in the same boat limits the bounce

Asian equities mostly began higher, benefiting from lessening inflationary pressures in the United States and hopes that central banks will decrease the pace of interest rate rises.

The lack of a dramatic stock market rebound is most likely due to everyone being in the same reduced inflation boat. Nonetheless, investors are growing increasingly anxious about the impact on corporate America and the extent of the economic cratering caused by the Fed's aggressive rate rise approach. While a large negative miss on CPI may have led to a bias toward considerably more euphoric markets, the inline data nevertheless has investors perplexed.

Not to mention the genuine fear in certain quarters that inflation may stage a comeback owing to the strength of the US labor market. Indeed, this scenario highlights a fundamental feature that might result in the Fed keeping rates higher for longer in 2023 than many expect.

In Japan, stocks are mixed, with the Nikkei 225 down and the wider TOPIX index little changed as the outlook for exporters dims due to the yen's rise.

Forex

With the substantial declines in bond and market volatility, the dollar is no longer required as a haven; hence, the efficiency of dollar cash as a risk-off hedge is decreasing, which might start a larger unwind of USD holdings on its own.

Stoxx 600 equity inflow trackers reveal a fresh spike as investors become more confident about growth outside of the US, resulting in a better corporate profit situation in Europe. The restoration of long-only investor flow in USD is critical to pushing the EURUSD higher.

IMM positioning should dissuade people from estimating the probable size of dollar fluctuations. It is actual money and corporate USD currency cash that matters, i.e., the proverbial dry powder on the sidelines, which is not represented in positioning surveys.

12-01-2023 04:01:19

USD/JPY Forecast

The concern at this point is whether the market will continue to see interest rates climb, forcing the Bank of Japan to create more yen.

• The USD/JPY rose marginally during Wednesday's trading session as we continue to try to establish a base against the Japanese yen.
• The Consumer Price Index figures are due out on Thursday, and they will have a significant impact on what the bond market believes the Federal Reserve will do.
• As the Bank of Japan has instituted yield curve management, this will have a significant impact on what occurs in this market.
• This is, of course, a reference to the Bank of Japan's declaration that it is willing to buy "infinite bonds" to keep the 10-year interest rate below 50 basis points.

However, they began this program with a yield curve control of 25 basis points on the same 10-year interest rate, so they have already caved a little. This is one of the factors that contributed to the Japanese yen's annihilation last year. The concern at this point is whether the market will continue to see interest rates climb, forcing the Bank of Japan to create more yen.

The 200-Day EMA is an indicator that many people pay close attention to. I suppose you could make an argument at this time that the 50-Day EMA contracting and dropping near the 200-Day EMA has some investors thinking about longer-term selling.

 If global interest rates remain stable, the Japanese may be granted some relief in this situation. I believe we are in a scenario where a difficult couple of days are more likely than not. After all, the Consumer Price Index is due out on Thursday; if it comes in hotter than expected, this market might swiftly go into the 200-Day EMA above.

On the downside, the 130 level appears to be the core of substantial support, so at this time, I believe we are attempting to determine whether the market has retreated sufficiently to make the long side appealing again. The following few weeks should provide some clarity, but the next few days will most likely be more chop than anything else.

12-01-2023 11:01:42

USD/JPY Remains Weak Amid BOJ Concerns

In case you missed it, Eamonn had the following news earlier today, which helped to push the yen higher in trading:

This just adds to the bond market's pressure, with 10-year Japanese government bond rates remaining near the 0.50% level since the end of last week. To summarise, there is rising concern and anticipation that the BOJ may deliver another surprise or will gradually begin to alter policy later this year.

The previous report today casts some doubt on next week's policy meeting, at which the BOJ is expected to lift inflation estimates - especially after Tokyo CPI rose to its highest level since April 1982, keeping over the central bank's 2% target for the seventh month in a row.

Since the collapse last week, we've seen pricing move toward the lower end of its recent consolidation. There have been oscillations in and around its 100-hour (red line) and 200-hour (blue line) moving averages, but the pair stays more contained between crucial support around 130.00 and daily resistance around 134.45-50 as well as the 135.00 level in the larger picture.

As we await the US CPI statistics later today and the BOJ policy meeting decision next week, these will continue to define and restrict risks for both buyers and sellers.

In the case of the latter, investors may be dissatisfied with the central bank's lack of action following last month's policy change. But, given how things are gradually setting up for such an occurrence, I don't anticipate the yen to fall very much.

12-01-2023 07:01:40

The Fact That The USD is Soon To Expire Does Not Bode Well For The Currency

What you need to take care of on 12/01/2023

For the second day in a row, market participants held their breath, with key pairs remaining at familiar levels. Tensions rose ahead of the December US Consumer Price Index (CPI), with the spotlight on central bank officials.

The European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers were mainly hawkish, which supported the EUR. Francois Villeroy de Galhau, governor of the French central bank, stated that the ECB should seek to reach the terminal rate by the summer, signaling that rates would have to be raised further in the following months.

Austria's central bank governor, Robert Holzmann, took a more aggressive position, stating that "rates will need to climb much higher to achieve levels that are sufficiently restrictive to enable a rapid return of inflation to goal."

Finally, he stated that it is too early to contemplate a potential terminal rate. Finally, ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn stated that interest rates in the Eurozone will need to climb further in the next sessions and reach restrictive levels to reduce inflation.

Susan Collins, the Boston representative of the US Federal Reserve, backed modest rate rises. Collins stated that she believes a 25 basis point or 50 basis point increase would be appropriate, adding that she is leaning toward a 25 basis point increase at this time, but that it is extremely data-dependent.

The Kremlin reiterated that President Vladimir Putin is willing to engage in Ukraine, but that any agreement should be on Russian terms. A peaceful resolution to the crisis is still a long way off.

EUR/USD remains constant at 1.0750 for the second day in a row, while GBP/USD finished at 1.2140. The AUD/USD pair began the day on the back foot, but recovered and achieved a slight gain, trading just over the 0.6900 mark. The USD/CAD pair is trading around 1.3420, while the USD/JPY pair is at 132.40.

Gold reached a new eight-month high of $1,886.63 per troy ounce before reversing course ahead of Wall Street's opening, finishing the day with minor gains at approximately $1,877.00.

Crude oil prices rose on the back of a study from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), which predicted that worldwide use of liquid fuels such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel would reach new highs in 2024. The headline concealed a significant increase in US stocks.

On Thursday, the focus will be on the US Consumer Price Index, which is expected to rise 6.5% year on year in December. The core reading is up 5.7%, down from 6% previously.

11-01-2023 08:01:57

As the NA Session Begins, the EUR is the strongest then CHF

In the North American Session

As the North American session begins, the EUR is the strongest and the CHF is the weakest. The USD is trending upward in the markets. Tomorrow, at 8:30 a.m. ET, the crucial US CPI report will be issued. This week, SF Fed President Mary Daly stated that it is all about CPI services less housing.

Today's oil inventory data will be closely watched by the markets. Late yesterday, private data was provided, revealing a massive 14M barrel spike, the greatest in two years. The EIA statistics will be available at 10:30 a.m. Despite the substantial increase in stockpiles, the price of crude oil has risen by roughly $0.59.

In other markets:

spot gold is near unchanged at $1876.50

spot silver is up $0.17 or 0.70% at $23.77

WTI crude oil is trading up $0.62 at $75.72

Bitcoin is trading at $17,422, which is down about $30 from the near 5 PM level yesterday

The NASDAQ index is up for the fourth straight day in the premarket for US stocks:

Dow Industrial Average is up 84 points after yesterday's 186.45-point rise

The S&P index is up 11 points after yesterday's 27.16-point rise

The NASDAQ index is up 31 points after yesterday's 108.98-point rise

In the European equity markets, the major issues also trading higher:

German DAX, +1.05%

France's CAC is up 0.97%

UK's FTSE 100 of 0.77%

Spain's Ibex is up 0.15%

Italy's FTSE MIB is up 0.54%

In the Asian-Pacific markets, the major indices were mixed:

Japan's Nikkei index +1.03%

Hang Seng index is up 0.49%

New Zealand's 50 Index -0.24%

Australia's S&P/ASX index +0.9%

Shanghai composite index -0.24%

In the US debt market, rates are trading lower after the 10-year yield rose by close to 10 basis points yesterday. At 1 p.m. ET today, the US Treasury will auction off tenure notes:

2 year 4.243%, -1.5 basis points

5 year 3.694% -3.8 basis points

10 year 3.574% -4.5 basis points

30-year 3.694% -610 basis points

11-01-2023 12:01:36

EUR/JPY Forecast Today

At the moment, the EUR/JPY intraday bias is neutral. On the downside, a break below 140.15 minor support will revert the tilt to the 137.37 low. If this level is broken, the drop from 148.38 to 135.40 Fibonacci will resume. However, given the positive convergence situation in the 4-hour MACD, a breach of 142.92 suggests that the correction from 148.38 has been finished. The intraday tendency will go back to the upside towards the 146.71 barrier level.

In the wider picture, as long as the 55-week EMA (now at 138.64) holds, the greater uptrend from 114.42 (2020 low) to 149.76 long-term resistance will continue. However, a strong breach of the 55-week EMA will result in a further drop to the 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 148.38 at 135.40. A sustained break there increases the likelihood of a trend reversal, with a 61.8% retracement at 127.39 being the objective.EUR/JPY Forecast Today

11-01-2023 07:01:51

Forex Today: The Wait For US Inflation Figures Continues

What you need to take care of on Wednesday, January 11:

The FX board witnessed minimal movement on Tuesday, owing to a light macroeconomic calendar and investors' need for clarification from central banks. US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues from Canada and Japan were on the lines, but only as part of a conference on central bank independence, so no new hints on monetary policy were provided.

The US Dollar rose during the first part of the day but finished mixed as Wall Street managed to recoup pre-opening losses and register a tiny gain. At the same time, the yield on US government bonds rose. Investors are hesitant to take significant risks ahead of the release of US inflation data next Thursday.

The EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.0740, while the GBP/USD is trading around 1.2160, down on the day. Commodity currencies have also weakened against the US dollar, with the AUD/USD trading at 0.6890 and the USD/CAD trading around 1.3420. Finally, the USD/JPY pair is trading slightly higher at around 132.20.

Gold is consolidating at $1,876 per troy ounce, while crude oil rose in the American afternoon. WTI closed at $75.20 per barrel.

The upcoming Asian session will be important in terms of macroeconomic data, as Australia will release the November Monthly Consumer Price Index, which is expected to be 7.3% YoY, up from 6.9% in October. In addition, Australia will release November Retail Sales, which are projected to have grown by 0.6% after decreasing by 0.2% the previous month. Finally, China will release the December Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) for the same month.

10-01-2023 09:01:05

Today In Forex: The Us Dollar Sees Optimism

US Dollar Today Forcast

The US Dollar began the week on the back foot as the safe-haven currency was pulled down by optimism. On the one hand, market participants analyzed US macroeconomic data released last Friday, which indicated that the Federal Reserve might decrease the rate of tightening.

According to San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, 50 basis points (bps) or 25 basis points (bps) are on the table at the next meeting. Raphael Bostic, president of the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, stated that interest rates should climb to 5% or 5.25%. Both promised further rises to keep inflation in check before eventually pausing and holding for a while.

On the other hand, China announced the reopening of the three-year-old sea and land crossings with Hong Kong. Asian equities gained significantly, leading the way higher for their international counterparts. It's worth noting that Wall Street gave up much of its intraday gains before the close.

Despite weak Eurozone statistics, the EUR/USD touched 1.0760, retaining gains. GBP/USD is trading at 1.2200, profiting from the US Dollar weakening.

Commodity-linked currencies climbed early in the day, after spending the previous two sessions stabilizing near their daily tops versus the dollar. The AUD/USD pair is trading at 0.6930, while the USD/CAD pair is down to 1.3370.

The Japanese yen strengthened against the US dollar, falling to 131.50. Gold maintains its advances and is currently trading at $1,875 per troy ounce. However, crude oil prices ended the day barely altered, with WTI trading at $74.70 per barrel.

10-01-2023 07:01:03

Why Fx Traders Should Pay Close Attention To The Stock Market This Quarter

We all know that the forex and stock markets are linked, thus forex traders should keep a watch on what stocks are doing. However, there are a few situations this quarter that make this link much more evident. The stock market, particularly in the United States, may provide some clues as to what to expect in the currency markets.

What's going on?

To have a better grasp of the issue, keep in mind that bonds are one of the main ways the stock and currency markets are linked. When bond prices fall, for example, investors rush to purchase that currency. This raises the currency's value about other currencies. At the same time, investors are exiting the stock market to purchase bonds. This implies that the stock market will fall.

As a result, the traditional inverse link between currencies and the stock market exists. That doesn't always match up perfectly since it relies on why bond prices have fallen. Another important issue is risk sentiment. Because stocks are riskier, when there is a risk-off market, investors will exit the stock market and purchase bonds.

What is causing the underlying market to rise?

The problem is that the bond market is currently severely skewed, notably in the United States and Japan. This is because authorities have been meddling in the market over the previous few years. Almost all central banks and governments have done so, while some have done so more than others. As a result, there may be a disparity in currency reactions.

Governments released large quantities of debt in the form of bonds during covid. Due to supply and demand, this would generally cause interest rates to rise. However, central banks intervened by purchasing bonds in an attempt to drive interest rates lower. In the bond market, this creates an artificial scenario.

Following the distortion

Bond yields are naturally used to illustrate relative risk. That is, the greater the interest rate, the longer the bond period. This is known as the bond yield curve. However, central banks such as the BOJ and the BOE have intervened to "regulate" the yield curve. The US bond curve is "inverted," which means that short-term debt has a higher interest rate than long-term debt, reflecting central bank policy expectations.

Why it is significant

Investors will place their money where they feel the risk-reward ratio is the best. Bonds are less risky than stocks, thus the higher the interest rate, the greater the interest in selling equities. Investors have a distinct incentive structure if the central bank is manipulating the market. This can result in a stock market run-up while conditions aren't so excellent, such as in 2020-2021, followed by a stock market slump when things improve, such as in 2022.

As a result, central bank policy can trump economic facts. The Fed is anticipated to pause or cease raising interest rates this quarter. If the Fed maintains its current stance, the market's natural dynamics may resume. As a result, the stock market may resume its more traditional function of anticipating sentiment. This, in turn, offers insight into how much demand there is for bonds and whether a certain currency will gain or depreciate.

09-01-2023 08:01:20

USD/JPY Trading Support and Resistance

USD JPY Forecast and Analysis

This week, I'll start with my monthly and weekly Forex prediction of currency pairings to keep an eye on. The first portion of my projection is based on my analysis of Forex prices over the last 20 years, which shows that the following approaches have all delivered positive results:

Trading the two currencies that have been moving the strongest over the last six months.

Trading against exceptionally significant weekly counter-trend movements made by currency pairings the previous week.

Carry Trading: Purchasing high-interest-rate currencies and selling low-interest-rate ones.

Let's have a look at the most recent statistics on currency price fluctuations and interest rates, which we gathered using a trade-weighted index of the world's main currencies:

Monthly Outlook for January 2023

I predicted that the EUR/USD currency pair would grow in value and the USD/JPY currency pair would decline in value in January.

The anticipated performance is as follows:

Weekly Forecast for January 8th, 2023

I didn't make a weekly forecast last week. I'm not making a weekly forecast this week because there were no abnormally big counter-trend price swings in the market last week.

Because of high-impact data released this week, directional volatility in the Forex market is anticipated to rise in the following week.

Last week was dominated by the Australian Dollar's relative strength and the Japanese Yen's relative weakness.

Popular Pairs' Key Support/Resistance Levels

Trades should be entered and terminated at or near critical support and resistance levels, according to what I teach. This week, significant support and resistance levels on the most popular currency pairs may be tracked.

Let's look at how trading one of these important pairs off key support and resistance levels last week may have played out:

USD/JPY Levels

Last week, I predicted that the level at 129.60 would operate as support in the USD/JPY currency pair, as it has previously performed as both support and resistance. Take note of how nicely these "role reversal" levels may function.

The H1 price chart below illustrates how the price rejected this level near the close of last Tuesday's Tokyo session (which may sometimes be a good time to begin Forex trades with the Japanese Yen) with a massive bullish engulfing candlestick, as shown by the up arrow.

Based on the scale of the entrance candlestick structure, this trade has been exceptionally successful, with a maximum positive reward-to-risk ratio of more than 9 to 1.

09-01-2023 12:01:24

EUR/USD Forecast: Slow Wage Growth in the United States Aids Buyers

An Overview

• According to US employment data, wage growth halted in December.
• In December, the US economy added employment at a steady rate.
• The European Central Bank's main interest rates may soon hit their high.

The EUR/USD outlook for today is optimistic, as the pair extends Friday's gains. The Euro rose on Friday after significant US employment data indicated that pay growth slowed in December, increasing market bets that inflation is slowing. The Fed does not need to be as active as some had predicted.

The labor market remained tight, and the US economy added jobs steadily in December, returning the unemployment rate to a pre-pandemic low of 3.5%. Meanwhile, average hourly salaries climbed by 4.6% year on year in December, down from 4.8% in November.

According to Mario Centeno, a member of the ECB Governing Council, the European Central Bank's benchmark interest rates should soon hit their top despite efforts to control inflation. This assumes no additional external shocks occur.

He said at a conference that interest rates will go up until the European Central Bank (ECB) felt inflation could be decreased to its medium-term objective of 2% "as rapidly as practicable.

Annual consumer price rise in the eurozone slowed to 9.2% in December from 10.1% in November, according to Eurostat numbers released on Friday, falling short of the 9.7% expected in a Reuters poll.

Centeno applauded the four-month low rating, pointing to a significant slowdown in Germany. The ECB expected that average inflation would progressively fall, but that it would not reach its objective for another three years.

EUR/USD Significant Events Today

There will be no major announcements from the eurozone or the United States. As a result, investors will continue to absorb Friday's news.

The EUR/USD is in a sharp bullish advance on the 4-hour chart, having broken over the 1.0550 and 1.0625 resistance levels. The 30-SMA has also been broken, and the RSI has risen over 50. This indicates a shift in attitude from negative to positive.

If bulls maintain their current pace, the price will most certainly reach the next resistance level at 1.0701. If the price remains above the 30-SMA, the bullish trend will continue.

08-01-2023 01:01:30

USD Weekly Outlook

Weekly forex analysis and forecasts

The Dollar Index (DXY) finished the week on the back foot following some major U.S. economic data such as Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and ISM services, as well as higher-than-expected core inflation in the eurozone despite decreasing oil costs (the euro accounts for 57.6% of the DXY).

Wage pressures are diminishing, which has been a concern in the US services sector, supporting high inflation statistics, according to a key statistic in the NFP report. It will be fascinating to observe if December's declining average hourly wages materialize into next week's US CPI announcement.

The CPI print will be the focus for the dollar, and given that both core and headline inflation data have been declining since late to mid-2022, a lower result might reduce positive support.

A CPI beat would imply a 50bps interest rate hike at the February Federal Reserve meeting (see to table below for current money market pricing), while a miss would imply a 25bps increase, leaving the DXY vulnerable to a leg down. The trading week will conclude with the Michigan consumer sentiment data for January, which is predicted to edge higher, indicating consumer optimism in the United States.

After the recent falling wedge (black) breakout failed to hold above the 105.00 psychological resistance mark, the daily DXY price movement did not continue higher. The overall trend is bearish, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) trading below the 50-day SMA and below the 200-day SMA (blue). The CPI next week will most likely give some directional bias moving forward, keeping the DXY rangebound until then.

Resistance levels:

105.00

104.65

104.11

Support levels:

103.42

102.15

07-01-2023 12:01:44

Forex Opinion & Analysis

An Overview

After the bear breakout on January 3rd, the EUR/USD bear fulfilled the target of a second leg down. There will likely be buyers at the January 3rd bottom, and the market will continue to move sideways.
Since November 21st, the market has been in a bull channel, and bull channels often grow into trading ranges rather than bear trends, suggesting that sideways movement is most likely.
Furthermore, following January 3rd, the bears could not generate immediate follow-through selling. This increases the likelihood of additional sideways movement here.
Finally, during the January 3rd selloff, it was sensible to purchase the moving average. Those bulls who placed limit orders on the moving average are likely inclined to scale lower, increasing the likelihood of additional sideways trade.
Overall, the market is likely to fall and approach the November 30th or November 21st low (bottom of the channel); but, the market may have to go sideways for some time beforehand.

Next Week's Levels and Opportunities

USD/JPY requires a break at 134.20 to target 132.52 then. Lines at 136.00’s dropped to 1.3588 and continue the long slide lower.
GBP/JPY 163.00 also drops to 162.00 and specifically 162.09, above the target of 164.00’s. Oversold next week begins at low 158.00’s.
EUR/JPY must hold below 141.50 to target 140.13 easily.
AUD/JPY must trade below 91.39 and NZD/JPY 84.29. CAD/JPY trades between 99.19 and 97.59.
GBP/USD oversold begins at 1.1802 and higher requires a break above 1.1938.
AUD/USD holds a die-or-die position at 0.6731 and NZD/USD at 0.6210.
EUR/USD remains the outlier to AUD, NZD, and GBP at 1.0424.
GBP/USD was the first to break to lead AUD, NZD, and EUR/USD lower.
EUR/NZD traded to tops at 1.6937 yesterday and 1.6934 today. Once EUR/NZD ranges are firmly established, ranges hold for many weeks to allow continuous longs or shorts. For EUR/NZD since December, 1.6900’s tops offered many shorts and will last all of January.
EUR/AUD trades to 1.5300’s and 1.5200 targets on a break of 1.5486. EUR/AUD is similar to EUR/NZD as ranges once established hold for many weeks to offer multiple longs and shorts.
Overall currency markets trade in a fairly neutral position and wait on the DXY resolution to break 104.45 or 105.34 and 105.76.

06-01-2023 01:01:24

AUD/JPY Forecast

AUD/JPY News and Analysis

It's worth noting that the Japanese yen's rise corresponded with the Bank of Japan signaling that it might act.
The AUD/JPY initially attempted to rebound during the early Thursday trade but encountered significant noise and support near the 91 levels.
This is a region that has previously been significant, therefore it will most probably have a lot of market memory associated with it.
It was previously supported, therefore it should now be fought, and I believe many people will be looking at this through the lens of whether or not the level will stay critical.
It's also worth noticing that the 50-Day EMA is approaching the 200-Day EMA, making the so-called death cross. Of course, the death cross is a pretty unfavorable long-term sign, so it will be fascinating to watch how this plays out.
After all, the Japanese yen might be one of the most fascinating currencies to trade in 2023, given how much it was sold off over the previous year. Remember that the Bank of Japan has declared that it would maintain yield curve regulations, with the 10-year note having a 50 basis point maximum.
It's worth noting that the Japanese yen's rise corresponded with the Bank of Japan signaling that it might act. However, the 10-year Japanese Government Bond rate is just 41 basis points higher overnight, so there is still some wriggle space. If the market threatens the 50 basis point threshold in the 10-year yield, the Japanese yen will likely continue to fall as the central bank is obliged to print more bravery for you to purchase more debt.
It's also worth mentioning that the Wednesday candlestick was rather harsh, with significant purchasing against the Japanese yen seen not just in the Australian dollar but also in the majority of other currencies. In other words, we may have recently witnessed the market's "bottom," as we created a double bottom at the ¥88 level. We are not yet out of the woods, but if we can significantly break above the 91 levels, potentially on a daily or even weekly close, I believe this market will begin to go to the outside. Otherwise, it might be swinging around between ¥91 and ¥88.

06-01-2023 07:01:46

Forex-Dollar Remains Positive On The Solid Us Job Market

Why is the U.S. dollar still so strong?

On Friday, the dollar maintained at a one-month high as US economic data revealed a still-tight labor market, which might keep the Federal Reserve on its aggressive rate rise path.

According to figures released on Thursday, the number of Americans submitting new applications for unemployment benefits fell to a three-month low last week, while layoffs plunged 43% in December.

According to a second study, private employment climbed by 235,000 jobs last month, considerably above predictions of a 150,000 gain.

The US dollar index rose 0.9% against a basket of currencies overnight, reaching a nearly one-month high of 105.27. It was recently 0.03% higher at 105.15, on track for the greatest weekly rise since September of more than 1.5%.

"All of the tales about job losses in the IT industry have yet to be reflected in the overall employment statistics, which implies that although there is weakness in some pockets...there is still significant demand for employees from other sections of the economy," said Khoon Goh, ANZ's head of Asia research.

The greenback's advance overnight pushed the sterling to a six-week low of $1.1873. It was recently up 0.12% at $1.1922.

Similarly, the euro fell 0.8% the previous day to a more than three-week low of $1.0515 and was last stable at $1.0519.

The dollar gained 0.6% against the Japanese yen overnight, reaching a one-week high of 134.045 yen, and last purchased at 133.44 yen.

Markets are now focusing on the carefully awaited nonfarm payrolls data, which is coming later on Friday, with analysts surveyed by Reuters estimating the US economy gained 200,000 jobs in December.

"We might be in for a pleasant surprise," Goh said. "This will keep the Fed steadfast in raising rates."

The euro zone's flash inflation data for December will also be released on Friday, with an annual inflation rate of 9.7% expected.

Inflation in Germany, France, and Spain already slowed last month, suggesting that eurozone inflation may fall short of forecasts.

"The low inflation data, as well as all the shocks," said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank.

"However, in terms of trade, the recent downturn in oil and gas prices that we've seen is quite favorable for eurozone growth prospects...so I would anticipate the euro to get more support from that than it has."

In other developments, the Australian dollar was recently 0.07% higher at $0.6757, after falling 1.3% in the previous session and erasing much of the gains it gained earlier in the week on reports that China had loosened limits on Australian coal imports.

Following a 1% drop on Thursday, the kiwi gained 0.02% to $0.6224, putting it on course for an almost 2% weekly loss, its worst since September.

05-01-2023 10:01:13

In The EUR USD Keep An Eye On The 1.05155 Level

EUR/USD Currency Pair Overview

In the EURUSD, keep an eye on the 1.05155 level.

That level indicates the 50% midpoint of the pair's 2022 trading range.

Earlier this week, the price fell to test that level and found buyers. A move below should result in more selling pressure. Moving below the November swing highs at 1.047981 would assist to solidify the downward bias.

For bullish/bearish bias purposes, the 50% level is frequently used as a pivot. As a result, it is one of those technical levels to keep an eye on and watch for indications. Traders will look for momentum in the direction of the break if it is broken.

Hold, and there might be a rebound like the one saw on Tuesday.

04-01-2023 05:01:29

The USD/BRL Crosses An Important Resistance Level As Higher Values Accumulate

USD/BRL Analysis

Following the Christmas break, the USD/BRL has witnessed increased purchasing pressure, and values have now reached significant resistance levels since the New Year began.

The USD/BRL finished at 5.4800 vicinities yesterday, and it has been steadily rising since hitting a low of nearly 5.1300 on December 23rd. Skeptics of the bullish trend may point out that the forceful bullish move occurred during the Christmas season, which is right, but it may not mask the fact that the USD/BRL is being bought because financial institutions are concerned about the upcoming changes to Brazilian fiscal policy.

With full trade volumes expected to resume in the near term, now that the Christmas season is over and financial institutions are returning to their trading desks, the USD/BRL will have an opportunity to revert downward. The currency pair is approaching significant resistance, and the 5.50000 level may be seen as a crucial psychological gauge. Although the USD/BRL temporarily surpassed this level in November and July of 2022, the Forex pair has not traded over 5.5000 since January 2022.

The next few days of USD/BRL trade might help set the tone for the months ahead. Fundamentally, the United States Federal Reserve will release its Meeting Minutes today, which will be a crucial component in determining behavioral opinion towards interest rate policy for the following half year.

In addition, Brazil's new administration is now in place. The incoming President can press for changes in economic policies that are more liberal in terms of expenditure on social purposes that are justified by his political party. This will almost probably raise concerns about the long-term value of the Brazilian Real.

Restoration to the full trading activity will provide traders with insight into the near-term outlook of financial institutions. The current run-up in value, which has been rather forceful over the last ten days, will have to be followed by a selling wave to generate the impression that the USD/BRL is overbought. If this does not occur and the higher price is maintained, it may raise the possibility that the USD/BRL is ready to enter a prolonged bullish trend. Traders should be aware that a gap is anticipated following the beginning of USD/BRL Forex today.

Support and Resistance

If the USD/BRL suddenly moves around the 5.4900 to 5.4990 ratios on the open, it might indicate that the objective of 5.5000 is firmly within the purview of speculative forces. A prolonged advance over 5.5000 would be considered bullish.

Support should be kept an eye on between 5.4600 and 4.4500. If they are readily exposed, it might indicate that the USD/BRL has been overbought in the last week and that the currency pair will attack the 5.4100 ratios in the short future.

Current Resistance: 5.4990

Current Support: 5.4510

High Target: 5.5660

Low Target: 5.4020

04-01-2023 01:01:44

EUR/AUD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.5617; (P) 1.5680; (R1) 1.5740

03-01-2023 09:01:34

GBPUSD Recovers As Yields Fall And Technicals Propel The Pair Higher

GBPUSD Forecast Today

The GBPUSD has recovered after plunging substantially during the European session today. The price rose above resistance between 1.1991 and 1.2010, and with that break, it surged directly up to retest a cluster of moving average resistance, beginning with the GBPUSD bouncing higher into MA resistance.

• 200-day moving average at 1.20394.
• The 100-hour moving average of 1.20451, and
• The 200-hour moving average is 1.2054.

The top price reached 1.20568 before reversing to the negative. As I type, the price is back at 1.2020, aiming to retest the high of the swing range between 1.1991 and 1.2010. As the pair's trading dynamics shift to ups and downs, that region will be watched for support. In the short term, the swing area remains an important indicator. Keeping above is more bullish. Moving down is more bearish.

US rates are falling, with the 10-year yield currently down -8.5 basis points. Meanwhile, equities have swung back to the negative, rapidly removing the "New Year's joy" from the market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down -0.20%. The S& P 500 is down -0.35%, while the Nasdaq is down -0.58%.

Fundamentally, the S&P global manufacturing PMI was lower than expected, while construction spending was somewhat higher (but few expect a miraculous turnaround in building/housing anytime soon).

03-01-2023 03:01:12

AUD/USD Forex Signal

Today's AUD/USD Updates

Risk 0.75%

Trades must be taken before 5 pm Tokyo time Wednesday.

Short Trade Idea

Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame, right after the next hit of the upper trend line depicted in the price chart below, which is now at about $0.6835.

Set the stop loss one pip above the current swing high.

Once the trade is 20 pips in profit, move the stop loss to break even.

When the price reaches 20 pips in profit, take 50% of the position as profit and allow the rest to ride.

Long Trade Idea

Long entry after a positive price action reversal on the H1 time frame and the next touch of $0.6781, $0.6762, or $0.6731.

Set the stop loss one pip below the current swing low.

Once the trade is 20 pips in profit, move the stop loss to break even.

When the price reaches 20 pips in profit, take 50% of the position as profit and allow the rest to ride.

The simplest way to see a typical "price action reversal" is for an hourly candle to finish with a higher close, such as a pin bar, doji, outer candle, or even just an engulfing candle. You may profit from these levels or zones by keeping an eye on the price activity that occurs at the given levels.

AUD/USD Analysis

I believed a bullish bounce at $0.6732 would be good for swing traders as a long trade entry, but the bounce was so short-term that it was only suited for scalpers.

Since then, the technical picture has stayed positive, although it is a sluggish trend with several severe drops.

According to the price chart below, the price is increasing within a bullish wedge. Although the bullish impetus is slow or nonexistent, and the Australian Dollar is weak, the steady increase is being supported by a declining US Dollar.

What's most intriguing for bulls here is that there are no critical resistance levels above $0.6953, implying that the price has lots of opportunities to grow.

Before the price may become positive, risk sentiment must shift from risk-off to risk-on.

Although we cannot predict if risk sentiment will change, I believe long swing trades or scalps from bullish rebounds at any of the closely listed support levels appear appealing, particularly as scalps.

There is nothing significant due today for either the AUD or the USD.

03-01-2023 08:01:29

The Forex-Dollar Is Stable As Investors Anticipate Economic Data

US Dollar Index Forecast, News and Analysis

The index surged 8% last year, its greatest annual gain since 2015, as the Fed raised interest rates to combat inflation. The dollar is expected to stabilize as "market activity progressively ramps up this week," according to Christopher Wong, the currency analyst at Singapore's OCBC Bank.

The US dollar remained fairly unchanged on Tuesday as investors awaited a barrage of economic data this week, as well as minutes from the previous Federal Reserve meeting, which will give insight into the Central Bank's thinking on interest rates and inflation.

The dollar index, which measures the US currency against six key currencies, has had a slow start to 2023, rising 0.068% to 103.710. The index surged 8% last year, its greatest annual gain since 2015, as the Fed raised interest rates to combat inflation.

The dollar is expected to stabilize as "market activity progressively ramps up this week," according to Christopher Wong, the currency analyst at Singapore's OCBC Bank. After four straight 75-basis-point rises, the Federal Reserve boosted interest rates by 50 basis points last month. The minutes of the December meeting is expected to be issued on Wednesday, with investors hoping for clues about the Fed's likely policy course in 2023.

Citi analysts predicted that the minutes would grow more fascinating as the doves and hawks differed on how high the final rate should be. "We will also be watching for any advice on what might decide the amount of the rise at the February meeting," Citi said, adding that they continue to predict a 50 basis point boost in February.

Investors will also be watching the payrolls data, which is coming out on Friday. In other news, the Japanese yen rose 0.46% against the US dollar to 130.12 per dollar, its highest level since June.

On Saturday, the Nikkei reported that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) was considering boosting its inflation estimates in January to show price increases near the 2% objective in fiscal 2023 and 2024. Upgrades to the BOJ's inflation prediction would likely feed more speculation that the central bank is seeking to adjust its ultra-loose monetary easing policy, and would follow the BOJ shocking markets by broadening its 10-year yield limit range.

Meanwhile, the euro was down 0.07% to $1.0655, while the sterling was down 0.07% to $1.2037.