Weekly USD/JPY Forecast
USD/JPY fell to 127.20 last week but has since moved sideways. This week's initial bias remains neutral. There is no apparent evidence of a bottom yet, and a further plunge is yet possible. A break of 127.20 will continue the whole slide from 151.93 and target the Fibonacci level of 121.43. Nonetheless, a breach of 131.56 should confirm a short-term bottom and shift the bias to the upside for a bigger comeback.
In the larger picture, the break of the 55-week EMA (currently at 131.52) raises the possibility of a medium-term bearish reversal, although this has yet to be verified. To drive the price back up, look for a 61.8% retracement of 102.58 to 151.93 at 121.43 and a 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75. However, a break of the 131.56 resistance level is required first to signify a bottom. Otherwise, more decline is likely.
In the long run, 151.93 appears to be a significant high. However, it is too early to predict a long-term negative reversal at this time. Rebounding from the 38.2% retracement of 75.56 to 151.93 at 122.75 will keep the case open for the price movement from 151.93 to be merely a corrective pattern.