This Week's Focused Pairing (13.03.2023 - 17.03.2023)
EUR/USD:
The EUR/USD has fluctuated throughout the trading week as we continue to challenge the 50-Week EMA. At this moment, it appears like there is a lot of choppiness and hesitation, and I believe that will continue.
If we break below the past few weeks, we might fall below the 1.03 level. After that, the market might look for the parity level, which would get a lot of attention. We might move back and forth in the medium term, but I still favor the downside since Jerome Powell has stated that the Federal Reserve would remain tight for some time.
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD has fluctuated during the trading week, indicating hesitancy, although we did dive somewhat lower over the week. As a result, I believe that if we break below the bottom of the candlestick for the week, we might see a run down to the 1.15 level.
On the upside, the 50-Week EMA enters the picture at the 1.22 level, which I believe might provide some resistance. It appears that we are attempting to rebound, but it is worth remembering that several of the prior weekly candlesticks have formed inverted hammers, so I believe that getting higher from here would be difficult.
USD/JPY
Throughout the trading week, the USD/JPY attempted to climb against the Japanese yen but found it tough to break through the 138 level. That being said, the 138 level was previously resistive, and I believe it indicates that the market will battle hard in that region.
Nonetheless, we have the 50-Week EMA underneath, which is rising and might provide considerable support. The Bank of Japan continues to fight against the yen's value by keeping interest rates low, so I believe it's only a matter of time before the greenback reverses and rises again.
AUD/USD
The AUD/USD has been pounded this trading week, and it appears to be on the verge of breaking down severely. As a result, I believe the market will eventually fall below the 0.64 level. The 0.67 level above there is a region that I believe will be tough to surpass, and hence I believe short-term rallies will be met with a lot of selling pressure.
Gold
Gold markets originally declined over the week, but following the Non-Farm Payrolls release, we saw a lot of buying pressure as the US dollar fell somewhat. From a technical sense, it's clear that the market has found significant support at the 50-Week EMA and also near the 50% Fibonacci level. If we can break above the weekly candlestick, we might attempt a move toward the $1900 level, which has historically experienced a lot of selling pressure.
USD/CAD
Over the week, the USD/CAD rose considerably, breaking above the 1.38 mark. We will threaten the 1.40 level if we can break above the region just above the present price. Any break over 1.40 would be extremely powerful for the US dollar, and the Canadian dollar would suffer as a result.
This makes sense given that the Bank of Japan has previously indicated that it is no longer boosting interest rates. Short-term pullbacks are more likely than not going to turn into buying opportunities at this time.
AUD/JPY
The Australian dollar has been crushed against the Japanese yen this week, and it now appears to be in jeopardy. Anything below the 87 levels might be said to initiate a head and shoulders pattern. Sure, it's a convoluted and loud argument, but it's one you can make.
But, if we rise from here, the 92 levels above might act as resistance, thus a short-term gain is more likely to be sold into. If we break over the 92 levels, we might then look at the 96 levels.
USD/CHF
The USD/CHF gave up a large chunk of gain early in the week, falling to the 0.92 level. Having said that, we are approaching a big support level for the US dollar versus the Swiss franc, therefore I would not be shocked if this market bounces for the week. This, I believe, creates a market that is attempting to find some sort of trading range.