Weekly Forex Forecast (April 10-14, 2023)
The DXY, EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCAD are all included in today's weekly currency prediction. The US Dollar Index (DXY) bounced off macro support last week and is trying a bullish recapture, while EURUSD and GBPUSD appear to be headed for a fall.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, we have USDJPY and USDCAD, which look more optimistic and try their reclaims. To prepare for the next week, watch the video then scroll down to see the charts.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Forecast:
This week, the dollar index recovered from the 101.00 macro support level I highlighted. Bulls, on the other hand, still have work to do. The first stumbling block is 102.05, which functioned as support in late March and drew sellers on Friday.
A sustained break over 102.05 allows access to the 102.60 monthly open, with a break above that allowing access to the 103.50 yearly open. So there's still a lot of work to be done, but I'm cautiously optimistic about the DXY as long as it remains above the 101.00 macro support level.
EURUSD Forecast
On Friday, I discussed EURUSD, observing how a higher time frame closure below 1.0900 would confirm last week's bearish fakeout. Having said that, I'm usually wary of Friday price activity, especially when it's also a holiday.
I started a tiny short position around 1.0936 last week and shared it with members of the Discord trading club. Nonetheless, I'm holding out for a daily close below 1.0900 before increasing the size of the position.
A daily close below 1.0900 reveals the 1.0750 support confluence, while a daily finish above 1.0930 negates the bearish perspective and reveals 1.0973.
GBPUSD Forecast
Last week, GBPUSD confirmed a bearish fakeout above the 1.2450 range highs. Technically, this is a range of 1.2427 to 1.2450, and Friday closed below both. Even Thursday's session failed to hold over 1.2450, which is one reason I believe the dollar will rise in the coming days.
If GBPUSD bears follow through this week, we might see a move to 1.2290 and possibly the 1.2200 mid-range. A daily closing over 1.2450, on the other hand, would neutralize the negative picture.
USDJPY Forecast
Last week, I told Daily Price Action subscribers that I preferred the long side of the USDJPY while it was trading around 130.93. The rising channel from earlier this year and the importance of 130.70 were to blame.
Since late March, the USDJPY market activity has resembled that of January and early February. But, USDJPY bulls have work to do this week around 132.90. We saw the pair stumble there earlier this month, so a daily close above is required to open up levels like 134.40.
As the USDJPY is above 130.70, I'm cautiously positive, but a daily regain of 132.90 would make me more aggressively bullish.
USDCAD Forecast
I mentioned the USDCAD October trend line a few times in February, stressing that a bullish break from the level would disclose higher levels. The breakout occurred on February 22nd, resulting in a 300-pip surge in USDCAD.
We saw a rounded retest of the October trend line at 1.3420 last week. While USDCAD was trading at 1.3420, I recommended this as a viable long in the member's Discord group, which turned out to be a good move.
The monthly opening of 1.3516 will determine if we see more gains. A sustained break above offers up levels such as 1.3650, while a rotation down this week is expected to find support at 1.3470.