How long until the prospect of a US recession returns to the market's spotlight?
1. In December, its Leading Economic Index fell 1.0%.
2. The November reading was revised downward to 1.1%.
3. The December drop beat all 22 estimates in a Reuters survey of experts, which had a median expectation of a 0.7% drop.
4. This is the tenth consecutive month of rain.
5. The LEI is currently down 4.2% in the six months from June to December 2022. This is a substantially faster pace of decline than the previous six-month period's 1.9% shrinkage (December 2021–June 2022)
6. "The US LEI declined dramatically again in December, signaling a near-term recession for the US economy," stated Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director of Economics at The Conference Board. "Leading indicators showed a widespread weakening in December, indicating that circumstances in labor markets, manufacturing, home building, and financial markets may deteriorate in the coming months. Meanwhile, the coincident economic index (CEI) has not deteriorated as much as the LEI since labor market indicators (employment and personal income) has remained strong. Nonetheless, industrial production, a component of the CEI, dropped for the third month in a row. Overall economic activity is expected to fall in the next quarter before rebounding in the fourth quarter of 2023."